Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive in Retrospect

 

 The lack of success in Ukraine's counter-offensive operation has taught us that in strategic endeavors, whether they involve warfare, diplomacy, or any other form of confrontation, the element of surprise and the ability to keep adversaries such as Russia in the dark can often be the key to success.

I vividly recall the time when Ukraine was planning and strategizing its counteroffensive, with the goal of pushing back Putin's army and reclaiming their territory. During that period, virtually everyone I knew was filled with jubilation, believing that Ukraine would finally impart a lesson to Russia, given that Ukraine army is bolstered by the support they were receiving from the United States and European Union nations. Regrettably, Ukraine's counteroffensive ultimately ended in failure.

The facts are clear: Ukraine's counter-offensive, a critical moment in the ongoing conflict with Russia, ultimately failed to achieve its objectives. However, it is important to clarify that the failure wasn't due to the incompetence of Ukrainian soldiers. Instead, the operation's shortcomings can largely be attributed to the extensive and prolonged advertising of the impending counter-offensive in the months leading up to its execution. This over-advertisement had the unintended consequence of tipping off the Russian military and, in essence, revealing Ukraine's battle plans to its adversary. The result was a missed opportunity that could have otherwise led to a successful campaign to reclaim lost territories.

The counter-offensive garnered so much attention and coverage that even children in Russia were well aware of it. This widespread knowledge gave the Russian military ample time to strategize, fortify their positions, and prepare to counter Ukraine's advances effectively. Essentially, Ukraine's intentions were laid bare for their opponent, allowing Russia to respond with both caution and precision.

In the realm of warfare, particularly when confronting a calculated and cunning leader like Vladimir Putin and the formidable Russian Army, disclosing your plans to the enemy is a fundamental error. It is akin to handing them a playbook to anticipate your moves and counter them. As the saying goes, "Loose lips sink ships." In this case, Ukraine's efforts would have been better served if they had maintained the utmost secrecy surrounding their counter-offensive plans. Had the operation been conducted as a top-secret mission and executed swiftly and decisively, the Ukrainian Army might have achieved a resounding victory over the Russian forces. We could now be discussing the triumphant return of Crimea to Ukrainian control instead of analyzing a campaign that fell short of expectations.

An invaluable lesson can be drawn from this situation, as underscored by a saying passed down through generations: even the most powerful and feared individuals in a village would not stand a chance against a surprise attack. This principle extends to armies as well. Even a well-equipped and formidable military force can be vulnerable to an unexpected assault. To illustrate this point, consider the case of Israel on October 7, when the Iran-backed terrorist group Hamas launched a sudden and vicious attack. The element of surprise was their most potent weapon. If Hamas had openly declared their intentions as Ukraine did with Russia, Israel would have been better prepared to thwart their efforts, potentially intercepting them while they were still in Gaza. In war, the element of surprise can often be the decisive factor between success and failure.

This should serve as a valuable lesson for both Ukraine and America: Never disclose your intentions to your enemy, especially when that enemy is Putin. In my tribe (that is, the Igbo tribe of Eastern Nigeria), there exists a profound proverb that encapsulates this principle – "it is only a tree that will know you are coming to cut it down and yet wait for you to do it." In stark contrast, when it comes to human beings, if they are aware that you intend to harm them, they won't simply stand idly by, awaiting your actions. Instead, they will take proactive measures to evade capture or, even worse for you, they might set up an ambush to confront you as you approach. This ancient wisdom holds significant relevance in the realm of international affairs and warfare, and both Ukraine and America should take heed.

Ukraine, in particular, should draw essential insights from this proverb. As I noted earlier, the recent failure of their counter-offensive, largely attributed to excessive pre-announcement and publicity, highlights the critical importance of maintaining secrecy and unpredictability in military strategy. Revealing your intentions to your adversaries can be akin to handing them the upper hand, as it allows them to prepare, adapt, and strategize accordingly. In a high-stakes geopolitical landscape where deceit and surprise can be decisive factors, discretion is a valuable asset. Similarly, America, despite its vast military capabilities and resources, should not underestimate the wisdom embedded in this Igbo proverb. In an era of global interconnectedness and information dissemination, the temptation to broadcast intentions for various reasons, such as garnering international support or demonstrating resolve, may arise. However, such transparency must be weighed carefully against the potential risks it poses when dealing with dictators such as Putin and Xi Jinping. Even a superpower like the United States must remember that revealing intentions prematurely can compromise the effectiveness of its military actions and diplomatic efforts.

Ultimately, the lesson is universal: In strategic endeavors, whether they involve warfare, diplomacy, or any other form of confrontation, the element of surprise and the ability to keep adversaries in the dark can often be the key to success. As the world continues to evolve, the significance of this ancient wisdom remains undiminished, reminding nations and leaders that, in the face of adversaries, discretion can be a powerful ally.