Global Education Crisis: Troubling PISA Exam Results

 

Even prior to the emergence of COVID-19, the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), conducted every three years in OECD countries, indicated a prolonged period of stagnant school grades in the affluent world. The latest PISA score emphasizes that improving teacher training and motivation is a more effective means of improving grades than investing in smaller class sizes, a policy preference often favored by politicians.

Almost four years have passed since the world's classrooms first closed their doors to around 1.6 billion students due to the rapid spread of COVID-19. At the peak of this crisis, a staggering 80% of students worldwide felt the impact of these closures. During this challenging period, young learners had to adapt to remote education or, sadly, received no formal education at all. This disruption was the most significant disruption to education since World War II and had far-reaching consequences.

What is particularly striking is that in many countries, these closures continued long after it was clear that COVID-19 posed a relatively low risk to children's health and after vaccines became widely available for adults. Even when schools reopened, students and teachers had to grapple with social distancing and quarantine rules, which continued to disrupt the learning process. The true extent of the impact of these policies is only now becoming clear. On December 5th, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which mostly represents affluent nations, released a comprehensive set of data from assessments in math, reading, and science. These tests were taken by fifteen-year-old students between March and November of the previous year and provide the most insightful picture to date of how the pandemic affected their education.

While some countries like Japan, Singapore, and South Korea saw impressive academic performance despite the challenges, others were not as fortunate. British and American students generally scored above the average for wealthy nations, but it is essential to note that many regions fell significantly short of expectations. Surprisingly, despite the tough circumstances, some students managed to maintain their academic progress relatively unscathed.

The OECD has been conducting these tests, primarily on a triennial basis, for the past two decades through its Program for International Student Assessment, commonly referred to as PISA. Even prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, PISA data had already indicated that academic performance in the affluent nations had remained relatively stagnant for a number of years. However, in the most recent series of examinations, the results have taken a dramatic downturn (as depicted in Table 1). On average, students in wealthier countries recorded scores that were 10 points lower in reading assessments and nearly 15 points lower in mathematics compared to the previous examination conducted in 2018. This decline suggests that, in comparison to previous cohorts, those who participated in these recent tests have experienced an educational setback equivalent to missing between half to three-quarters of an entire school year.

 

Table 1: OECD Countries Average PISA Scores by Year

 

Subject	2003	2006	2012	2018	2022
Math	502	501	499	496	480
Reading	497	495	501	493	482
Science	-	503	505	493	491

Source: Culled from OECD; The Economist

 

A decline of this magnitude is nothing short of a calamity. It's widely recognized that each additional year of schooling a child receives has the potential to increase their annual salary by nearly 10%. This means that the lost learning experienced during the pandemic could continue to cast a shadow on wages for years to come. The repercussions are particularly profound for young students who, due to a drop in their grades, might fail to graduate from high school or fail to acquire the skills required for success at the university level. It's important to note that individuals with degrees in affluent countries typically earn around 50% more than those who enter the workforce immediately after high school.

In regions where the steepest drops in performance have been recorded, the situation is dire. According to PISA, 15-year-olds in these areas are now performing at levels that were typical of students a full year younger in 2018. Among the three subjects assessed by PISA, mathematics has been the hardest hit, with significant declines observed in countries such as France, Germany, and Poland. Notably, even Finland, often praised for the effectiveness of its educational system, has not been immune to these declines.

The findings for the United States and the United Kingdom are somewhat less conclusive compared to most other countries. Challenges in administering the tests to a sufficient number of students require cautious interpretation of their data. Nevertheless, it appears that test scores have indeed declined in both countries, albeit not as dramatically as in some of their neighboring nations. In the case of the United Kingdom, reading scores have regressed to levels last measured in 2006. The United States, while maintaining relatively steady reading scores, faces a significant challenge in mathematics, as its students have consistently ranked in the bottom third among wealthy countries in the OECD's numeracy assessments. The plummeting scores during the pandemic period only exacerbate the struggle to bridge this educational gap.

In 2022, PISA tests were administered to students in 81 countries and territories, with the majority of them being outside the affluent world. Interestingly, many developing countries that chose to participate in these assessments seem to have outperformed initial forecasts—though the underlying reasons might be rather somber. Andreas Schleicher, an expert from the OECD, notes that pupils in these regions typically exhibit slower rates of progress even under normal school conditions. Consequently, the disruption caused by being removed from classrooms may have had a less severe impact on their academic performance than anticipated.

The discussion surrounding achievement gaps presents a complex picture. PISA's findings suggest that, on the whole, the pandemic has not significantly widened the chasm between the test scores of economically disadvantaged students and their more affluent peers. However, this conclusion comes with a crucial caveat: it's primarily because, in most countries, even privileged children have seen their educational progress stagnate to a similar extent as their less advantaged counterparts.

This nuanced perspective on the impact of the pandemic underscores the pervasive nature of the educational challenges posed by COVID-19. While some developing countries have managed to weather the storm relatively well due to their historical patterns of slower educational progress, the pandemic has had a leveling effect on achievement gaps in many countries. The shared experience of disrupted learning among students of various socioeconomic backgrounds highlights the need for comprehensive efforts to ensure equitable access to quality education and support systems that address the diverse needs of students as they navigate the path to recovery.

Pandemic Victories

Education ministries around the globe would undoubtedly be envious of the fortunate few wealthy nations that have uplifting tales to share amidst the challenges of the pandemic. Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan stand out as remarkable examples where not only did test scores remain resilient throughout the pandemic period, but they even showed improvement in at least one of the three core subjects. Additionally, Israel and Switzerland also appear to have navigated these tumultuous times relatively well, at least based on the available data.

The strategies employed by these exceptional performers were diverse yet effective. Some of these nations succeeded in safeguarding the continuity of learning by implementing short-term school closures. Analyses within the OECD's dataset suggest a notable correlation between the duration of school closures and subsequent test performance among students. Switzerland, for instance, adopted a fully remote or hybrid timetable for a mere six weeks—a sharp contrast to the European average of approximately 29 weeks of school closures. Japan also demonstrated agility by curtailing summer breaks in 2020 to reclaim some of the lost class hours that students had endured up to that point. Singapore took a similar approach by modifying school holidays to maximize available learning time, illustrating their commitment to educational resilience.

For other top-performing nations, the key differentiator appeared to be the quality of remote education. South Korea, while enforcing strict and prolonged social distancing measures, allowed children to attend school only part-time for over a year after initial classroom re-openings. However, they did not leave their students to grapple with the challenges alone. In the first year of the pandemic, the South Korean government hired an additional 30,000 teaching staff, some of whom were retirees reengaging in their educational service. This approach, coupled with rigorous remote learning support, played a pivotal role in maintaining the educational trajectory of South Korean students despite the challenging circumstances.

These global examples highlight the multifaceted strategies employed by nations to protect and nurture their students' educational journeys during the pandemic. They underscore the importance of adaptability, resource allocation, and a steadfast commitment to providing quality education, even in the face of unprecedented challenges.

Helping Schools Recover

The question of how to breathe new life into education elsewhere looms large in the wake of alarming academic setbacks wrought by the pandemic. These disheartening results should rekindle enthusiasm for targeted programs aimed at helping students reclaim the learning opportunities lost during this crisis. For instance, in Britain, the government has allocated a substantial sum of about £3.5 billion ($4.4 billion) since 2020 to bolster such initiatives. This financial commitment is roughly equivalent to 6% of one year's total spending on schools. A considerable portion of these funds has been channeled into tutoring programs, with available data indicating that children are indeed making strides in their educational journeys. However, a looming challenge looms as the funding for this initiative is set to diminish next year.

Across the Atlantic in the United States, an astonishing $190 billion in federal relief money has been allocated to support schools since the onset of the pandemic. This staggering sum approximates one-quarter of the country's typical annual expenditure on public schooling. Yet, a significant portion of this funding has granted schools substantial autonomy in deciding how to allocate resources. Only a minimal 20% of this financial aid is mandated to be used for programs explicitly designed to steer children back on course with their learning. A crucial juncture is on the horizon, with the impending arrival of September next year, when this additional financial support is poised to evaporate.

Data made public in July by NWEA, a testing provider with access to scores from over six million students, paints a sobering picture for American pupils. It suggests that many students, across various grade levels, have not shown more significant academic progress than typical during the most recent academic year. Rather than catching up, these students appear to have advanced at a somewhat slower pace than the pre-pandemic standard. Compounding this challenge is the tight labor market, which has made it arduous for American schools to recruit a sufficient number of tutors who could accelerate the process of educational recovery. Another obstacle lies in the hesitancy of schools to extend the school day or add extra days to the academic year. It was always a formidable task to expect schools, emerging from a catastrophic event, to suddenly revolutionize the average school day to make it significantly more productive. In contrast, increasing the time dedicated to learning is a feasible objective that even the least innovative educational institutions can embrace.

In an ideal world, policymakers would seize this pivotal moment not merely to address the immediate challenge of mitigating the learning losses incurred during the pandemic but to institute comprehensive reforms capable of reshaping the less-than-impressive trajectories that many school systems had been tracing even prior to the pandemic's onset. The OECD's previous data analysis in 2018 revealed a sobering reality: 15-year-olds in most affluent countries were not demonstrating improved performance in mathematics, reading, or science when compared to their counterparts from two decades prior. In several major nations, including not only Finland but also France, the Netherlands, and New Zealand, among others, academic achievements were already on a downward trajectory. In such contexts, disentangling the precise extent to which the pandemic contributed to declining scores becomes a complex challenge. There is a substantial risk that underlying systemic issues will remain unresolved if poor results are simply attributed to a pandemic-induced anomaly.

The educational challenge at hand extends beyond the simplistic notion of increasing financial resources. In fact, between 2008 and 2018, per-pupil spending in wealthy nations increased by approximately 15%, yet this surge failed to yield significant and transformative results. According to OECD data, augmenting school funding tends to yield tangible improvements only up to a threshold of around $75,000 per pupil, distributed over a child's first ten years in school. Beyond this point, the returns on investment begin to diminish rapidly. The United States serves as a striking example, allocating more than $140,000 per pupil, while its academic performance in mathematics, science, and reading lags behind that of Japan, a nation that invests approximately 40% less per pupil.

Within this context, it is only natural for OECD officials to express concern when they hear education ministers pledging to "build back better" in response to the pandemic's impact. They fear that such a commitment may inadvertently result in pouring more financial resources into the same outdated strategies. A wiser approach would involve "building forward differently." International evidence underscores that improving teachers' training and motivation stands as a more reliable means of enhancing academic performance compared to simply allocating funds towards reducing class sizes—a measure often favored by politicians due to its apparent simplicity. Moreover, many education systems struggle to ensure that resources are distributed equitably, reaching the schools and students in greatest need. There is a looming risk that a golden opportunity for reform may be squandered if mediocre educational systems are reconstituted without addressing their inherent deficiencies.

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

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OECD. (2023). PISA 2022 Results: Preparing Students for a Changing World. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/publication/pisa-2022-results/

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from Oecd.org: http://www.oecd.org

Springer, M. G. (2008). Accountability Incentives: Do Schools Practice Educational Triage?. Education Next, 8(1), 74-79. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ej780981

The Economist. (2023, December 5). PISA Marks Decline: The Pandemic’s Toll on Schooling Emerges in Terrible Exam Results. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/international/2023/12/05/the-pandemics-toll-on-schooling-emerges-in-terrible-exam-results

Warne, R. T. (2014). Using above-level testing to track growth in academic achievement in gifted students. Gifted Child Quarterly, 58(1), 3-23. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0016986213513793