The Slowdown That Could Sink Kamala Harris

 

While America's economy avoids recession, its gradual slowdown could prove politically disastrous for Kamala Harris, as voters focus on rising prices rather than long-term gains.

The American economy has always been a tricky dance partner in the political ballroom, leading candidates to stumble or glide depending on its unpredictable rhythms. As we look toward the upcoming presidential election, the question isn't whether the economy will play a role in the outcome—it is more about how it will sway the voters. Will America’s economy swing the election? It is not quite entering a recession, but it is undeniably slowing down. And that, unfortunately for Kamala Harris, could be a significant hurdle.

Imagine trying to win a popularity contest while holding a ticking clock that no one wants to hear. That’s the situation Harris finds herself in as the economic clock ticks louder with each passing day. The economy, which once danced to an enviable tune of growth under the Biden administration, is now showing signs of fatigue. Investors, always the jittery bunch, have started to sweat over the possibility of a recession. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in July, the highest since 2021, and the stock markets had a worldwide slump on August 5th before recovering slightly. These signs of economic slowing are bad news for Harris, who must navigate this challenging landscape in the months leading up to the election.

Now, it is worth noting that America isn’t exactly teetering on the edge of a recession. The economic indicators are mixed, with some pointing toward a slowdown rather than a full-blown crash. The GDP still grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% in the second quarter, above the long-term trend, and estimates for the current quarter remain comfortably above 2%. Yet, even this gradual slowdown could be a political millstone around Harris’s neck.

History has shown us that voters are a fickle bunch, often more swayed by recent economic events than by long-term trends. This is where Harris’s challenge lies. The Biden administration can boast about a robust economic record—workers’ median real earnings are up by 9.4% since 2016, and even among men without a high-school diploma, unemployment is only 5.1%. Swing states like Pennsylvania have enjoyed lower inflation and unemployment rates than the national average, which should be a feather in Harris’s cap. However, the harsh reality is that voters may not give credit where it’s due. Instead, they might focus on the fact that prices are nearly 20% higher than when Biden took office, leading to that infamous sticker shock at the checkout counter.

Republicans have already begun framing the narrative around this economic slowdown, with Trump’s camp dubbing it the “Kamala crash.” While this term might be exaggerated—stock markets are still up 9% this year, after all—the perception is what matters. Voters may blame Harris for any economic discomfort they feel, regardless of the complex realities of global markets and inflation trends.

It’s not just the stock market that’s causing concern. Consumer confidence, which has been uncharacteristically low even during periods of strong growth and a jobs boom, has taken another hit with the slowdown. This lack of confidence could be a ticking time bomb for Harris. Research suggests that the performance of the economy in the months leading up to an election is crucial, and right now, the signs aren’t looking great for the Democrats. Real income growth has halved, consumer confidence is dwindling, and external factors like potential surges in oil prices due to instability in the Middle East could further dampen the mood.

Despite all this, it’s important to remember that the economy, while significant, isn’t the only factor in an election. Barack Obama managed to secure re-election in 2012 despite a sluggish economy. Similarly, Trump, for all his bluster, isn’t invincible. He has vulnerabilities, especially on issues like healthcare and abortion, where Harris holds more favorable ground with voters.

However, the economic slowdown presents a formidable challenge for Harris. The Democratic Party is often expected to manage the economy better than the Republicans, a perception that might not hold up under the scrutiny of a slowing economy. If the economy continues to decelerate, even if it doesn’t plunge into a recession, Harris could find herself struggling to convince voters that she can steer the ship through choppy waters.

The political theater in America is always full of twists and turns, and the economy is just one of many players on the stage. Yet, it’s a player that commands attention and can dramatically influence the direction of the narrative. For Harris, the challenge will be to navigate the complexities of this economic landscape while countering the inevitable attacks from the Trump camp. If she can do that, she might just find herself waltzing into the White House. But if the economy continues to falter, she could be left with nothing but the sound of a ticking clock.

As the election draws nearer, one can almost hear the ghost of elections past whispering a clear reminder: "It’s the economy, stupid." Yet, in today’s complex world, maybe it’s not just the economy—but it sure doesn’t hurt to keep a close eye on that clock.