Europe’s Great Betrayal: Sanctions Leaks Fueling the Russian War Effort

 

The same European companies that champion sanctions against Russia are indirectly fueling the Kremlin's war machine through middlemen in Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Armenia. In other words, the West’s sanctions are not just porous; they have become a hidden pipeline of critical supplies for Russia, empowering its aggression in Ukraine while pretending to stand with Kyiv.

When it comes to Russia's war machine, it is almost as if the world has found a way to keep it well-oiled—just without admitting it. Behind the scenes, a curious cast of middlemen have stepped in, allowing Russia to thrive despite a minefield of Western sanctions. It is a classic case of “sanction-dodging by proxy,” where countries like Kazakhstan, Armenia, Turkey, and others become unintended accomplices in Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine. The West’s well-intentioned sanctions have become as porous as a sieve, with intermediaries enabling the Kremlin to carry on business as usual.

Russia is a country seemingly unfazed by international economic measures aimed at stifling its capacity to wage war. Despite over two years of sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s economy continues to grow at a rapid pace, registering a 4% annualized growth in the second quarter of this year. At first glance, this is perplexing. After all, Russia has been cut off from the world’s major tech suppliers, including the European Union. Yet somehow, the country’s access to critical materials, from semiconductors to machinery, hasn’t dried up. How?

For starters, look no further than Kazakhstan, a former Soviet state whose tech exports to Russia have skyrocketed from $40 million in 2021 to $298 million in 2023. This tiny country, with an industry previously incapable of producing such large quantities of high-tech products, now seems to be Russia’s saving grace. But as you dig deeper, it becomes apparent that this “miracle” is nothing more than a smokescreen. European imports to Kazakhstan surged from €250 million to €709 million in the same period. What’s really happening? European goods are merely taking a detour through Kazakhstan to reach Russia. While it may appear to be legal on paper, in reality, it’s nothing short of sanctions evasion.

Kazakhstan isn’t the only country serving as a lifeline for Russia. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey have all seen significant growth in their trade with Russia since the war began. In fact, exports from the EU to these countries increased by €46 billion in 2023 alone, essentially offsetting the 50% drop in exports to Russia directly. For Russia, this surge in trade allows them to replenish their military and civilian supplies, all while staying under the radar.

It is not just about banned goods like drones and semiconductors, which are flowing into Russia in increasing quantities. The list also includes seemingly innocuous items like ball-bearings, chemicals, and even household appliances. Europe’s latest sanctions, introduced in June, have tried to clamp down on these products, but they are still finding their way onto the battlefield. Over half of the equipment used by Russia between February and August 2022 contained components sourced from Europe or America, according to the Royal United Services Institute. The sanctions regime, it seems, is more of an obstacle course than an impenetrable barrier.

The middlemen know exactly what they’re doing. Shipments bound for Russia often pass through several hands, sometimes traveling through Uzbekistan or Armenia before reaching their final destination. American authorities recently discovered a network of European firms, organized by the Russian conglomerate Mayak, that smuggled sanctioned equipment into Russia through third countries. Even more shocking is the fact that many of these middlemen operate with full knowledge of their actions. Mayak is just one example; other networks have been uncovered, with equipment making its way through Turkey for Russia’s state-owned Ostec and through Kyrgyzstan for aerospace firm Newton-ITM.

Europe’s policymakers are not entirely blind to this elaborate game of hide-and-seek. There have been efforts to tighten sanctions and pressure neighboring countries into compliance. But it’s a delicate dance, as these countries value their ties to Russia and often profit from the trade. When Armenia began cracking down on firms trading with Russia, it was only after receiving €270 million in aid from the EU. It’s a carrot-and-stick approach, but it hardly addresses the underlying problem.

Meanwhile, Turkey has become one of the biggest players in the game, filling the gap left by European companies that were once top suppliers of household appliances to Russia. In addition to domestic goods, Turkish firms are now producing drones and microelectronics for Russia’s war machine. It doesn’t stop there. Kazakhstan’s imports of office machinery from Europe tripled between 2021 and 2023, a fact that has little to do with the rise of new offices and factories in the region, and everything to do with rerouting goods to Russia.

For Europe and the United States, the consequences are clear: without the help of these middlemen, Russia’s economy—and its ability to continue waging war—would be severely hampered. As the saying goes, "when one door closes, another one opens." In this case, the West has slammed the front door shut on Russia, only to see side doors swing wide open through countries like Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Armenia.

What makes this all the more outrageous is the brazenness of the entire operation. These middlemen, knowing full well the implications of their actions, continue to assist Russia’s war efforts under the guise of legitimate trade. And while European and American policymakers scramble to plug the leaks, new ones continue to spring up, often with the full cooperation of local governments. For instance, Turkey’s foreign ministry has all but admitted that metals smelted in Europe are finding their way into Russian munitions, despite the war raging on in Ukraine.

If this weren't so serious, it would be almost comedic. But the joke is on Ukraine and the West. While European leaders speak of solidarity and support for Ukraine, their own companies, aided by middlemen in Central Asia and the Caucasus, are keeping the Russian war machine running smoothly. So long as the global market continues to operate in this gray zone, sanctions will be little more than symbolic gestures.

And in the end, isn't that the greatest irony? Europe and the United States set out to weaken Russia, only to see their own products fueling the very war they seek to end. The middlemen may be nameless and faceless, but their impact is undeniable. It's almost like watching a magician pull a rabbit out of a hat—except this time, the trick is costing lives. Perhaps the West should take note: when it comes to sanctions, it's not enough to build the walls. You have to close the doors too.

Because in this game, the middlemen are laughing all the way to the bank.