Friedrich Merz may not just be Germany’s next chancellor—he could be Europe’s last hope for stability, but only if he dismantles the stagnation strangling his own nation first. In plain terms, Without a Merz-led overhaul of Germany’s broken economic model, Europe’s dream of unity will become a tragic relic of the past.
Germany stands at a crossroads, teetering on the edge of political and economic upheaval. As the February 23rd election approaches, Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), emerges as the frontrunner poised to steer the nation—and, by extension, Europe—toward a new direction. However, the path to continental rejuvenation necessitates a thorough overhaul of Germany's internal affairs. Merz is on track to win, but the real challenge will be turning political triumph into transformative leadership.
Merz’s rise coincides with Germany's decline from its former glory as Europe's economic powerhouse. This year marks its third consecutive year of economic contraction. Once hailed for its economic miracle, Germany now stumbles under the weight of a crumbling business model built on manufacturing exports, cheap Russian gas, and U.S.-provided security. The Russian invasion of Ukraine shattered Germany’s energy dependency on Moscow, while rising tensions with China undermined its export-led economy. Add the growing perception that migration is out of control, and the political atmosphere becomes fertile ground for far-right parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD), whose popularity has surged to record levels. This election is more than just a vote for Germany’s next leader; it is a litmus test for Europe’s future.
Despite the CDU's anticipated 30% of the vote, Merz will not have a clear majority. He faces a labyrinth of coalition-building with potential partners—the Social Democrats (SPD) or the Greens—none of which promises stability. Germany has already experienced the chaos of an unwieldy three-party coalition under Olaf Scholz, which collapsed under the weight of its contradictions. Merz must avoid repeating the same mistakes. His inexperience in executive governance is a glaring vulnerability. Having never held a ministerial position, critics question whether he has the mettle to lead Germany through its most turbulent period since reunification.
Merz’s political vision is a peculiar mix of traditional conservatism and cautious pragmatism. He promises to cut bureaucratic red tape, a welcome stance for Germany’s stagnating business community. Acknowledging that the old German business model is obsolete, he advocates for free markets, free trade, and a reinvigorated Atlantic alliance. Yet, Merz’s reluctance to confront Germany’s outdated fiscal policies, particularly the constitutional “debt brake” that restricts government deficits, raises eyebrows. Infrastructure, defense, and digital investments have suffered from this fiscal straitjacket. While there are whispers that Merz might consider reforming it, his public silence on the matter suggests timidity at a time when boldness is required.
On the European front, Merz finds himself walking a tightrope. The once-powerful Franco-German partnership is faltering. With French President Emmanuel Macron’s waning influence and populist movements shaking other European nations, Germany must take the reins. Merz’s support for completing the EU’s banking union could boost Europe’s competitiveness against giants like the U.S. and China. However, his nationalistic opposition to the takeover of Germany’s Commerzbank by Italy’s UniCredit reveals a paradox. While advocating for a more unified Europe, he simultaneously resists the mechanisms that would make it work—a contradiction that risks undermining his credibility as a European leader.
The geopolitical situation adds yet another layer of complexity. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the looming specter of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House demand a recalibration of Germany’s defense strategy. Although Germany currently meets NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending target, many experts argue that this threshold is outdated. Russia’s aggression and the possibility of reduced U.S. commitment to NATO necessitate increasing defense spending to 3.5% of GDP. Merz’s refusal to endorse such an escalation, coupled with his opposition to joint European defense funding, raises doubts about his long-term vision for Europe’s security.
Immigration presents one of the most polarizing challenges Merz must confront. Years of unchecked migration have strained Germany’s social fabric and fueled the AfD’s rise. Merz has attempted to address the issue, but his efforts have often backfired. His recent collaboration with the AfD on an asylum motion in the Bundestag broke a long-standing taboo against cooperating with the far-right. Though Merz likely saw this as a tactical move to outflank the AfD, it sent shockwaves through the political establishment. Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized Merz for playing with democratic fire, accusing him of undermining the country’s core values. Merz’s misstep was a reminder that political maneuvering can easily spiral into chaos when principles are compromised.
As the election approaches, Merz’s cautious incrementalism risks falling short of what Germany needs. The nation finds itself at a turning point that demands bold, decisive leadership. Germany’s economy must be restructured to reduce dependency on volatile global markets. Its infrastructure—both physical and digital—needs urgent upgrades. Defense spending must reflect the realities of a new world order in which Europe cannot always count on American protection. These are not problems that can be solved through half-measures or political hedging.
History offers a stark warning. Post-recession Japan in the 1990s became known as the "lost decade" after its leaders opted for piecemeal reforms instead of bold action. Germany is on the precipice of a similar fate. The nation that once symbolized European resilience now risks becoming its weak link. Without an ambitious and coherent strategy, Merz’s potential chancellorship could result in another era of drift and decline, not just for Germany but for Europe as a whole.
In the theater of European politics, Germany is the central pillar. But a crumbling pillar can only support the structure for so long before everything collapses. Merz has the tools to be a transformative leader, but transformation requires more than good instincts—it demands courage. To fix Europe, he must first fix Germany. Anything less will make him the man who promised change but delivered compromise.
And in the grand performance of history, no one remembers the actors who only played it safe.
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