Imagine paying your bus fare while the person beside you rides free. Now imagine that happening millions of times—and Maryland cannot tell you exactly what it costs.
I have finally discovered a business model more generous than charity. It is called Maryland public transportation. Apparently, you can get on a bus, sit down, ride across Baltimore, get off at your destination, and—if the allegation from some Maryland Transit Administration (MTA) bus drivers is anywhere close to correct—there is a decent chance nobody will seriously trouble you about that irritating little detail called paying.
The regular one-way fare is $2. MTA's own fare policy
establishes fares and rules for Baltimore's Local Bus, Light Rail and Metro
Subway services.
But rules are funny things.
They work best when somebody expects people to follow
them.
That brings me to the number that should make Maryland
taxpayers spill their coffee:
$79 million.
Not $79,000.
Not $790,000.
About $79 million.
To be clear, MTA has not said it lost $79 million.
Spotlight on Maryland, the investigative reporting unit of WBFF FOX45 in
Baltimore, arrived at that figure using
MTA ridership data and the estimate of an anonymous bus driver who said only
about 15%–20% of riders pay. If the driver's estimate is right and roughly 80%
do not pay, the arithmetic becomes almost embarrassingly simple.
MTA had approximately 49.6 million bus rides in FY2025.
Take 80% of 49.6 million.
That gives us approximately 39.7 million rides.
Multiply 39.7 million by $2.
Welcome to the neighborhood of $79 million.
Of course, that calculation is deliberately rough. Some
passengers qualify for reduced fares. Some use daily, weekly or monthly passes.
A ride is not necessarily the same thing as a $2 cash transaction. So I am not
going to pretend that $79 million is an audited loss.
But that is not the part that bothers me.
What bothers me is that apparently nobody can tell me
what the real number is. MTA's response, according to the report, is a
masterpiece of government English. The agency says it "tracks and
monitors" fare evasion as part of its operational and financial oversight,
but calculating the resulting revenue loss is complicated because every
incident cannot be directly observed or quantified.
Translation?
"We know it happens. We watch it happen. We track
it. We monitor it. But please don't ask us how much money we're losing."
Beautiful.
Absolutely beautiful.
I wish I could run my household finances this way.
My bank calls.
"Joseph, where did the money go?"
"I am tracking and monitoring the situation."
"How much did you lose?"
"Estimating the loss is complex."
"Was it $500?"
"We do not have an annual estimate available to
share at this time."
Try that with your mortgage company.
Try it with the IRS.
Try it with the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration
when you owe them money.
Suddenly, I suspect "estimating the situation is
complex" will lose its magical power. And this is where the story becomes
more than a tale about people sneaking onto buses. It becomes a story about
accountability.
The anonymous driver interviewed by Spotlight on Maryland
estimated that only 15%–20% of riders actually pay. That is one employee's
estimate, not scientific proof. It should not be presented as established fact.
But it should be investigated.
Immediately.
Because if he is even remotely close, Maryland does not
have a minor fare-evasion problem. It has a collection system with a pulse but
no teeth. And other transit agencies have already demonstrated that fare
evasion can be measured.
Travel about 40 miles south from Baltimore and things
suddenly become less mysterious. Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority
says fare revenue contributed $461.8 million toward its operations in FY2025,
while it estimates that more than $50 million was lost to fare evasion on
Metrobus and Metrorail.
Interesting.
Washington can estimate it.
Apparently, somewhere between Washington and Baltimore,
mathematics gets off the train.
WMATA did something even more radical.
It acted.
Beginning in 2023, Metro began installing more secure
faregates. Eventually, more than 1,200 taller gates were installed throughout
all 98 Metrorail stations. By September 2024, WMATA reported that the changes
had produced an 82% reduction in Metrorail fare evasion. It also installed new
fareboxes on about 1,500 buses.
Think about that. 82%. That is not a philosophical
discussion. That is a result. Metro did not eliminate fare evasion. Nobody
sensible expects that. But it identified a problem, measured it, changed
infrastructure and measured the result.
There is even an enforcement component. In calendar year
2024, Metro Transit Police issued more than 15,000 fare-evasion summonses or
citations and made almost 1,000 fare-evasion arrests.
Whether every enforcement tactic should be copied is a
separate debate. Fare enforcement can create legitimate questions involving
poverty, equity, policing and the cost of enforcement itself. I am not
suggesting that Maryland turn every $2 unpaid bus fare into an episode of
"Cops." But there is an enormous distance between excessive
enforcement and institutional surrender.
New York offers an even uglier warning.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's Blue-Ribbon
Panel reported nearly $700 million in fares and tolls went uncollected in 2022.
Bus fare evasion alone accounted for an estimated $315 million. Subway fare
evasion added another $285 million.
New York called the situation a crisis. Maryland
apparently calls its situation "complex." I call that one hell of a
vocabulary lesson. And there is another uncomfortable issue sitting quietly in
the back of this bus. Who pays when riders do not? Money does not grow beneath
the driver's seat. Maryland public transportation receives public support,
including money flowing through the Transportation Trust Fund. So when
legitimate revenue disappears, the financial pressure does not disappear with
it. Somebody absorbs the cost.
The paying rider does.
The taxpayer does.
The motorist paying government fees does.
The transit system does.
Or service does.
Usually, everybody gets invited to the funeral. That is
why this cannot simply be dismissed as poor people trying to save $2.
Some people genuinely cannot afford transportation. That
is a real public-policy problem, and governments have legitimate options for
dealing with it. Maryland already provides reduced-fare arrangements for
qualifying riders.
If policymakers believe buses should be free, then say
so.
Make them free.
Pass the policy.
Calculate the cost.
Appropriate the money.
Tell taxpayers what they are paying for.
That would at least be honest.
But a system in which the official fare is $2 while large
numbers of people allegedly ride without paying is something stranger. It is a
fare system operating on the honor system after honor has apparently missed the
bus. The paying passenger walks aboard and taps a card.
Beep.
$2.
Another passenger walks aboard without paying.
Nothing.
The first passenger looks up.
"Wait. Why did I pay?"
Excellent question.
Repeat that experience often enough and government
creates the worst possible incentive. It teaches honest people that honesty is
for suckers. That damage is harder to calculate than $79 million.
Rules survive because most people believe everybody else
is expected to obey them too. Once people discover that compliance is optional,
voluntary compliance begins to look less like citizenship and more like
stupidity. That is why MTA's inability to provide an annual fare-evasion loss
estimate deserves scrutiny.
Maybe the real loss is nowhere near $79 million.
Fine.
Then measure it and tell us.
Maybe it is $10 million.
Tell us.
Maybe it is $25 million.
Tell us.
Maybe the anonymous driver's 80% estimate is wildly
exaggerated.
Wonderful.
Prove it.
Because "we don't know" is not reassuring when
the agency simultaneously says it tracks and monitors the problem. Tracking
without producing a useful estimate is like installing a security camera and
refusing to watch the recording.
The strangest part is that the evidence from Washington
suggests this is not some unsolvable mystery. WMATA has published fare-evasion
estimates, invested in physical barriers and reported measurable reductions.
Its more secure Metrorail gates produced an 82% decline in fare evasion.
So I am left with a wonderfully Maryland question. What
exactly are we waiting for? Another study? Another committee? A consultant? Perhaps
a consultant to study whether we need a committee to determine whether we
should commission a study.
Meanwhile:
Beep.
Another paying rider.
Door opens.
Another alleged fare evader.
Bus moves.
And somewhere inside an office, somebody is tracking and
monitoring.
I do not know whether Maryland MTA is actually losing $79
million annually from bus fare evasion. But apparently MTA cannot give us its
own annual number either. That is the scandal hiding inside the scandal. The
most important number is not $79 million. It is the number Maryland does not
know. When New York can estimate hundreds of millions in fare and toll evasion,
and Washington can estimate more than $50 million in FY2025 fare-evasion
losses, Maryland taxpayers deserve something better than bureaucratic fog.
Measure it.
Publish it.
Explain it.
Then decide what to do about it.
Because if government charges a fare, it should have a
serious plan for collecting that fare. And if government no longer intends to
collect it consistently, then government should have the courage to stop
pretending it has a fare. Until then, Maryland appears to be running one of the
strangest transportation experiments in America.
The sign says $2.
Some passengers pay.
Some allegedly do not.
The bus keeps moving.
And when taxpayers ask how much money may be going out
the door, the people running the system reach for the most dependable vehicle
government has ever built.
Not the bus.
The excuse.
As a side note for
regular readers, I have also written many titles in my Brief Book Series,
now available on Google Play Books. You can also read them here on Google Play, or in Barnes & Noble
bookstore: Brief Book Series.








