The EU's Identity Crisis: Many Presidents, No Leaders

 

The European Union, despite being a conglomerate of presidents and institutions, currently suffers from a profound leadership void, leaving the continent adrift in times of global crisis.

In the early 1990s, Deng Xiaoping wielded immense power in China despite holding no formal title beyond Most Honorary President of the Chinese Bridge Association. In stark contrast, the European Union today finds itself in a paradoxical situation where it boasts numerous presidents but lacks a clear leader. This leadership vacuum comes at a critical juncture, as Europe grapples with ongoing conflict, a burgeoning trade dispute with China, and an anxiety-inducing election in the United States. The question arises: can anyone step up to lead Europe?

The European Union's leadership conundrum is not a new phenomenon. Historically, the question of "Who runs Europe?" has always yielded complex answers. After World War II, as Europe transitioned from conflict to cooperation, the locus of power became increasingly diffuse. Federalists believed the power lay with the leaders of the bloc's main institutions in Brussels, while others suspected a Franco-German axis at the helm. Nationalists like Viktor Orban of Hungary or Giorgia Meloni of Italy now claim their moment has arrived, reflecting a rightward shift in European politics. The European Parliament, meanwhile, insists it should be in charge. This constant flux has kept Brussels-based journalists busy, but it has also led to a significant leadership void.

Emmanuel Macron, upon his re-election as French President two years ago, seemed poised to be Europe's standard-bearer. However, his popularity at home has waned, and his recent call for a snap parliamentary election has further complicated matters. The prospect of a messy "cohabitation" between Macron and a potential hard-right prime minister raises concerns about France exporting its domestic gridlock to the European level. While Macron would retain his role in foreign affairs and European summits, the intricacies of EU legislation would be influenced by French representatives from a rival party. This scenario threatens to destabilize the already fragile EU leadership structure.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who might typically step up in such situations, has been hampered by a messy coalition in Berlin. His lack of a visceral attachment to the EU and the poor performance of his ruling parties in recent European elections have further weakened his position. A looming fight over budget cuts and next year's federal election will likely divert his focus away from Brussels. Thus, Germany, traditionally a pillar of European stability, is currently unable to provide the leadership Europe desperately needs.

Attempts to add a third party to the Franco-German axis have thus far been unsuccessful. Poland, under Donald Tusk's leadership, has yet to reclaim its state apparatus from hard-right predecessors, and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte seems destined for NATO leadership rather than EU leadership. Giorgia Meloni's brief stint as a potential "kingmaker" in the EU has also been undercut by the centrist parties' strong performance in the recent European elections. These dynamics have left the Franco-German axis without a viable third partner to stabilize its leadership.

When national capitals fail to lead, the EU's institutions in Brussels often attempt a power grab. However, even Brussels is currently in a state of flux. The terms of the bloc's key leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are coming to an end. While von der Leyen is expected to secure another term, the process of appointing and confirming a new team of commissioners will consume much of the year, leaving the EU without decisive leadership in the interim. This lack of clarity at the top exacerbates the leadership vacuum Europe faces.

Amid this uncertainty, Viktor Orban of Hungary is set to take on the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union starting July 1st. Orban, known for his Eurosceptic and pro-Russian stance, unveiled the council's new tagline: "Make Europe Great Again." However, his controversial leadership style and antagonistic relationship with the EU's core values make him an unlikely unifier for the continent. Instead of providing coherent leadership, Orban's presidency may deepen existing divisions and further undermine the EU's cohesion.

The current European leadership crisis has broader implications for the continent and the world. Europe's inability to present a united front weakens its position in global affairs, from trade negotiations with China to geopolitical tensions with Russia. The upcoming U.S. election adds another layer of uncertainty, as Europe traditionally relies on strong transatlantic ties for security and economic stability. Without clear leadership, Europe risks becoming a passive player in these critical global dynamics.

Europe's leadership vacuum highlights the need for a unified vision and decisive action. The continent must find a way to transcend national interests and ideological divides to address its pressing challenges effectively. Whether through reforms in its institutional structure or the emergence of a new, charismatic leader, the European Union must strive to consolidate its fragmented leadership. Only then can Europe navigate the complex global landscape with confidence and coherence.

In plain terms, Europe today is a continent of many presidents yet no clear leader. This situation is not just a political curiosity but a pressing issue with significant implications for the continent's future. As the EU faces internal and external challenges, the need for decisive leadership has never been more critical. The current leadership vacuum must be addressed to ensure Europe remains a formidable and cohesive force on the global stage.