Death Trap for the Kremlin: Ukraine's Dominance in Crimea

 

The once-secure Russian stronghold of Crimea is now a battlefield where Ukraine's military acumen is systematically dismantling Russian defenses.

In Crimea, Ukraine is indeed beating Russia, turning the peninsula into a death trap for Kremlin forces. This strategic shift, underscored by the recent successes of Ukrainian military operations, signifies a crucial development in the ongoing conflict. Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Crimea, coupled with the strategic use of advanced weaponry and intelligence, has significantly hampered Russia's military capabilities in the region.

The approval of the Biden administration’s $61 billion military-support package in April, following six months of Congressional delay, has been a game-changer for Ukraine. This package includes the provision of ATACMS ballistic missiles, with a range of 300 km, enabling Ukraine to target Russian-occupied Crimea with deadly precision. The effectiveness of these missiles has been evident in the recent strikes on critical Russian military infrastructure in Crimea.

In the past weeks, the momentum of the Russian offensive in the northeast, particularly around Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city, has waned. This shift is partly due to President Joe Biden's decision on May 30th to ease restrictions on American weapons being used against military targets on Russian soil, albeit with some limitations. This policy change, pressured by a chorus of European allies, allows Ukraine to use American equipment to target Russian forces across the border, potentially preventing further attacks like the devastating glide-bomb strike on a Kharkiv hardware shop on May 25th that killed at least 18 people.

Ukraine's military strategy in Crimea, as articulated by Ben Hodges, a former commander of American forces in Europe and a senior adviser to NATO on logistics, involves systematically making the peninsula uninhabitable for Russian forces. This strategy represents a significant prize for Ukraine. Historically, Crimea has been viewed by Russia as a military jewel since the reign of Catherine the Great. The peninsula, linked to the Russian mainland by the Kerch Bridge since 2018, has been utilized by Vladimir Putin as an unsinkable aircraft carrier to dominate southern Ukraine and disrupt vital grain exports.

The logistical hubs, air bases, and the Black Sea Fleet operating out of Sevastopol have been central to Russia's military strategy in the region. However, Ukraine's recent military actions have placed this infrastructure under severe threat. Ukrainian forces have effectively employed British- and French-supplied Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles, alongside homemade maritime drones, to hit Russian warships and logistical targets. Notably, Ukrainian drones and missiles have incapacitated a significant portion of the Black Sea Fleet, forcing the remaining vessels to relocate to Novorossiysk, over 300 km away on the Russian mainland. Even this port has not been immune to Ukrainian attacks, with marine and aerial drones striking key installations on May 17th.

The introduction of ATACMS and increasingly sophisticated drones has allowed Ukraine to systematically dismantle Russian air defenses in Crimea, target air bases, and strike logistical and economic targets. Sir Lawrence Freedman, a British strategist, emphasizes that crippling Russia’s air-defense network is a crucial step in preparing for the arrival of the first batches of F-16 fighter jets from Europe. On April 17th, an ATACMS strike on Dzhankoi air base in northeastern Crimea caused significant damage to helicopters, an S-400 battery, and a command-and-control center. Similar strikes on May 15th and 16th targeted the Belbek air base near Sevastopol, destroying planes and air-defense radars, and setting off massive fires, likely fueled by an exploding depot.

These strikes indicate that Ukraine possesses more ATACMS missiles than previously estimated. The systematic targeting of Russian patrol boats and transport ferries near the Kerch Bridge further demonstrates Ukraine’s strategic capabilities. The once-vaunted S-400 air-defense system has proven inadequate against Ukraine’s decoy drones and precision targeting. According to Nico Lange, a former adviser to the German defense ministry, Ukrainian forces use decoy drones to reveal the positions of Russian radars, which are then targeted by ATACMS missiles. Each S-400 battery costs about $200 million, making them not easily replaceable, and their loss significantly undermines Russia's defensive posture in Crimea.

General Ben Hodges notes that Russian forces in Crimea have "no place to hide." With satellite and aerial reconnaissance provided by NATO allies, combined with deep territorial knowledge and covert forces on the ground, Ukrainian forces can monitor and target movements across the peninsula. Every square meter of Crimea is now within range of Ukrainian strikes, including aircraft and equipment convoys moving by road or rail.

The strategic importance of the Kerch Bridge, a key supply route for Russian forces, has not been lost on Ukraine. General Hodges is confident that Ukraine will target the bridge when the time is right. Meanwhile, Russia's efforts to reinforce the railway line running along the Sea of Azov from Rostov through occupied Ukrainian cities to Crimea signify their acknowledgment of the bridge's vulnerability.

The summer tourist season will be an early test of the broader success of Ukraine's campaign in Crimea. Crimea, once a popular destination for Russian holidaymakers, saw bookings drop by nearly half last year. The peninsula's transformation from a prestige project to a drain on Russian resources, as noted by Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, is a clear indicator of the changing dynamics. If Russian tourists avoid Crimea this summer, it will be a bad omen for Vladimir Putin and a testament to Ukraine's strategic effectiveness.

Without putting it in so many words, Ukraine's focused military strategy in Crimea is yielding significant results, transforming the peninsula into a liability for Russia. The combination of advanced weaponry, strategic intelligence, and relentless targeting of key military and logistical hubs is systematically dismantling Russia's military presence in Crimea. This shift not only undermines Russia's strategic position but also signals a broader change in the dynamics of the conflict, potentially paving the way for Ukraine to extract future concessions from the Kremlin.