The Endgame for Putin: Why Arming Adversaries Won't Halt His Regime's Decline

 

Putin's threats to arm hostile nations are the desperate acts of a leader facing inevitable collapse, his grasp on power slipping amidst economic turmoil and international isolation.

In a recent statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared his intention to supply weapons to nations antagonistic to Western interests, a move perceived as retaliation for the United States’ decision to allow Ukraine to utilize American-made weaponry within Russian territory. This declaration, made during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, underscores a heightened state of international tension and strategic posturing. However, this maneuver by Putin is basically  the desperate actions of a leader whose grip on power is increasingly tenuous. In other words, it is a last-ditch effort to stave off an inevitable collapse of his regime.

The backdrop to Putin's statement is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where the U.S. and Germany have authorized Ukraine to strike Russian positions in the Belgorod region to counter the recent Russian offensive in Kharkiv. President Biden has made it clear that the authorization is limited, explicitly stating that strikes deep within Russian territory, particularly targeting Moscow or the Kremlin, are not sanctioned. Despite these assurances, Putin has framed these actions as direct involvement by the West in the war, signaling a potential for asymmetrical retaliation.

Putin’s rhetoric about supplying arms to Western adversaries and targeting sensitive facilities appears to be an attempt to project strength and resolve. However, this might be more reflective of a leader under duress. The war in Ukraine has not gone as planned for Russia. Initial expectations of a swift victory have given way to a protracted and costly conflict. Ukrainian forces, bolstered by Western support, have mounted effective resistance, and the conflict has exposed significant weaknesses within the Russian military apparatus.

Domestically, the Russian economy has been hit hard by extensive Western sanctions. The economic fallout has been severe, with significant declines in GDP, international reserves, and the value of the ruble. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Russian economy contracted by 2.2% in 2022, with further declines expected in subsequent years . These economic hardships have exacerbated public discontent and undermined the stability of Putin’s regime.

Additionally, the international isolation of Russia has intensified. Major global institutions and nations have condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, leading to its ostracization from forums such as the G8, now the G7, and other international bodies. The long-term implications of this isolation are profound, limiting Russia’s diplomatic and economic leverage on the global stage.

Putin’s threats to arm hostile nations can be seen as a ploy to divert attention from these internal and external challenges. By stoking fears of a wider conflict, he aims to rally domestic support and dissuade the West from further involvement in Ukraine. However, this strategy has its limitations. Historical precedents suggest that such brinkmanship often fails to achieve its intended outcomes. During the Cold War, similar tactics by the Soviet Union did little to prevent its eventual dissolution. The Cuban Missile Crisis, for example, ultimately resulted in a strategic setback for the USSR, leading to the withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba in exchange for the removal of U.S. missiles from Turkey.

Moreover, the international community, particularly NATO and the European Union, has shown remarkable unity in its response to Russian aggression. This cohesion undermines Putin’s efforts to exploit divisions within the West. The recent NATO summit in Vilnius saw the alliance reaffirm its commitment to collective defense and its support for Ukraine . Such solidarity reduces the effectiveness of Putin’s attempts to intimidate the West with threats of arming its adversaries.

The internal dynamics within Russia also pose significant challenges for Putin. Public opinion, though tightly controlled, has shown signs of wavering support for the war in Ukraine. Reports from independent Russian media outlets and international observers indicate growing war fatigue and economic dissatisfaction among the populace . The political landscape is not immune to these pressures, with potential rifts within the ruling elite and among influential oligarchs whose interests have been adversely affected by the sanctions and the war’s economic toll.

In this context, Putin’s threats can be interpreted as a reaction to a series of strategic miscalculations and mounting pressures. The idea that providing weapons to other nations hostile to the West will alter the course of events is tenuous at best. It is more likely a tactic designed to buy time and project an image of resilience.

Simply put, Putin’s recent statements and threats are indicative of a leader grappling with multiple crises. The war in Ukraine, economic sanctions, international isolation, and domestic discontent are converging to create a precarious situation for his regime. The notion that arming other nations will significantly alter this trajectory seems far-fetched. The broader international community appears prepared to counter such threats, and the internal dynamics within Russia suggest that Putin’s hold on power is becoming increasingly unstable. It is indeed just a matter of time before these pressures culminate in a significant shift, potentially leading to the collapse of his regime.