Is Putin Just Waking Up? A Critical Analysis of Russia's Diplomatic Posturing

 

If Putin is only now realizing the downgraded state of Russia's relations with the West, one must question his awareness of the consequences of his own actions.

In a recent statement, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russia is contemplating a downgrade in diplomatic relations with the West due to increased involvement by the United States and its allies in the Ukraine conflict. This development raises a series of pertinent questions and highlights several ironies in the current geopolitical landscape. Is Putin just waking up to the reality of Russia's strained relations with the West? How come he didn’t realize the deterioration of these relations following his decision to invade Ukraine? Let’s delve into this argument critically, examining the facts and historical context.

First, it is very important  to acknowledge that the strained relations between Russia and the West did not start with the ongoing war in Ukraine. The roots of the current conflict can be traced back to several pivotal moments in history. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked a significant turning point. If the West had genuinely wanted to dismantle Russia, that was the perfect opportunity. Instead, the United States and its allies played a substantial role in helping Russia secure its nuclear arsenal and convinced Ukraine to relinquish its nuclear weapons through the Budapest Memorandum in 1994. This agreement provided Ukraine with security assurances against threats or use of force against its territorial integrity and political independence  .

Putin, as a seasoned politician and former KGB officer, is undoubtedly aware of these historical facts. Therefore, his recent claims and actions appear disingenuous. The argument that Western involvement in Ukraine constitutes an unprecedented escalation ignores the context of Russia's own aggressive actions. Putin initiated the conflict by annexing Crimea in 2014 and supporting separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine, actions that were widely condemned by the international community and led to economic sanctions against Russia .

Moreover, the notion that it is acceptable for Russia to receive weapons from countries like China, Iran, and North Korea while condemning Western support for Ukraine is inherently hypocritical. Russia has reportedly received drones and other military equipment from Iran, and there have been discussions about potential arms deals with North Korea . Meanwhile, Ukraine, facing an existential threat, has sought assistance from the West to defend its sovereignty. The argument that Ukraine should be left without external support while Russia continues to receive aid from its allies is not only unfair but strategically flawed.

Diplomatic relations between Russia and the West are indeed at a historical low. However, this situation is largely a consequence of Russia's own actions. The annexation of Crimea, the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 by a missile supplied by Russia, and the ongoing war in Ukraine have all contributed to the current state of affairs . The imposition of sanctions and the diplomatic isolation of Russia are responses to these aggressive actions, not unprovoked measures taken by the West.

It's also worth noting that the West has not sought to dismantle Russia but rather to deter further aggression and uphold international law. The sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States aim to pressure Russia into changing its behavior and returning to the negotiating table. These measures have been taken in response to specific violations of international norms and are not part of a broader strategy to destroy Russia .

Furthermore, the diplomatic rhetoric from the Kremlin appears to be an attempt to shift blame and justify its actions. By portraying the West as the aggressor, Russia seeks to rally domestic support and legitimize its military campaign. This strategy, however, overlooks the fact that Russia's actions have led to a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, with thousands of civilians killed and millions displaced .

In terms of historical context, Russia's relations with the West have experienced numerous ups and downs. The end of the Cold War brought a brief period of cooperation, but this was soon followed by a series of conflicts and disagreements. The 2008 war with Georgia, Russia's involvement in Syria, and the 2016 U.S. presidential election interference are just a few examples of actions that have contributed to the current state of distrust and animosity .

Without putting it in so many words, the suggestion that Russia is considering downgrading diplomatic relations with the West due to its involvement in Ukraine is both ironic and misleading. The strained relations are a result of Russia's own aggressive actions, and the West's response has been measured and aimed at upholding international norms. If the West had truly wanted to dismantle Russia, it had ample opportunity to do so in the past. Instead, the focus has been on containing Russia's aggressive tendencies and supporting Ukraine in its struggle for sovereignty. As diplomatic relations reach a nadir, it's clear that the blame lies squarely with Putin and his administration for initiating and perpetuating this conflict.