The Paradox of Disillusionment: Young Indian Voters and the Modi Conundrum

 

Despite a bleak economic landscape and high unemployment rates among educated youths, Narendra Modi's strategic use of welfare initiatives and direct communication through social media continues to secure the allegiance of a significant segment of young Indian voters.

India stands at a crucial juncture as it undergoes the 2024 general election. Approximately two-fifths of its burgeoning 1.4 billion population are under the age of 25, marking this young demographic as not only vast in size but pivotal due to the unique socio-economic challenges it encounters and its distinctive political leanings. This youthful segment holds significant electoral power, and their voting decisions are poised to profoundly influence the country's direction for years to come. As India progresses, the inclinations and issues of these young voters will undoubtedly play a critical role in shaping both policy and political landscapes.

Despite facing numerous hurdles such as limited economic opportunities and persistent employment challenges, a substantial number of these young voters remain supportive of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This enduring support comes amidst a backdrop of widespread disillusionment with the current economic trajectory, suggesting a complex interplay of loyalty, hope, and perhaps a lack of viable alternatives. The reasons for Modi's sustained appeal among the youth, despite these challenges, delve into deeper perceptions of his leadership and the BJP's policies that resonate with this demographic, suggesting that the party's strategies may still be effectively aligning with the aspirations and needs of India's younger population.

Generally speaking, the economic landscape for India's youth has been anything but promising. Surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) before the 2024 elections reveal a stark reality: 62% of young respondents feel that finding a job has become increasingly difficult over the past five years. Further data from the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) and Mint surveys supports this grim outlook, showing that 57% of young Indians do not expect employment prospects to improve in the near future. Unemployment rates are particularly alarming among educated youths, with 41% of graduates under 25 remaining jobless, in stark contrast to just 8% among those with primary or lower-secondary education.

Despite these challenges, Narendra Modi's appeal among young voters persists. The CPR survey indicates that 44% of the youngest respondents (born after 1996) still identify with the BJP, a figure only slightly lower than older demographics. This continued support can be attributed to several strategic and perceived successes of Modi's administration.

First, Modi's government is perceived as a benefactor of welfare and development. Many young Indians, like Siyaram from Patna, credit their access to basic necessities—cooking gas, bank accounts, electricity—to initiatives launched during Modi’s tenure. These tangible improvements in living standards are often portrayed as direct gifts from Modi, creating a personalized bond between the government's initiatives and their beneficiaries.

Moreover, Modi's adept use of social media plays a crucial role. With nearly 100 million followers on X and a significant presence on Instagram, Modi has mastered direct communication with the electorate, especially the youth. The BJP's early engagement with social media influencers and platforms, where young Indians are most active, gives them a considerable edge over competitors like the Congress party, which has only recently started to focus on these channels.

Many young voters also resonate with the enhanced profile of India on the global stage under Modi's leadership. Surveys from the Observer Research Foundation reveal that a majority of urban young Indians approve of the country's foreign policy and view India's presidency of the G20 as an effective representation of national interests. This sense of national pride and international recognition contributes to a favorable view of Modi’s leadership.

Despite the ongoing economic hardships and a challenging job market, the BJP under Narendra Modi’s leadership maintains significant support among India's youth. This can be seen as a reflection of the party's successful narrative building around development and national pride, coupled with strategic communication and welfare distribution. While the youth express discontent and the desire for better economic opportunities, their support suggests a hope or belief that the current government could still address these challenges. This complex interplay of dissatisfaction and support underscores the nuanced political landscape in India as it moves towards another pivotal election.

In essence, while young voters are clearly worried about their future and disillusioned with the pace of economic progress, they do not solely blame the BJP for these challenges. Instead, they appear to be weighing their options, giving Modi a tentative yet crucial vote of confidence, possibly driven by the lack of a perceived viable alternative and the benefits received during his administration. The future political engagement of these young voters could hinge significantly on the BJP’s ability to convert their promises, especially regarding job creation, into tangible outcomes.