Fragile Giants: The Inherent Weaknesses of the China-Russia Alliance

 

Despite the bold declarations of a "new era" partnership, historical mistrust and economic imbalances between China and Russia weaken their alliance against the West.

The burgeoning partnership between China and Russia has been touted as a formidable counterbalance to Western power, especially that of the United States. The proclamations of a "new era" of partnership between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are seen as a challenge to U.S. hegemony. However, an examination of the historical, economic, and military contexts reveals that this alliance may be too weak and incompetent to withstand America's military and economic might, or the collective strength of the West.

While China and Russia have proclaimed a "no limits" partnership, the history of their relationship is fraught with suspicion and conflict. The Sino-Soviet split of the 1960s, which culminated in a near-war in 1969 over a border dispute, casts a long shadow over their current alliance. Even today, there are lingering suspicions within the Russian elite about Russia becoming overly dependent on China. The balance of power within the alliance is clearly tilted in favor of Beijing, a point that causes unease in Moscow. This underlying tension weakens the cohesion of their partnership, making it vulnerable to external pressures.

Economically, China and Russia are on vastly different trajectories. China, with its rapid economic growth and technological advancements, stands as the junior partner in economic might. Russia, on the other hand, is heavily reliant on its natural resources, particularly oil and gas, which it increasingly sells to China. The West's sanctions on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine have exacerbated this dependency. As of 2022, China became Russia's largest buyer of crude oil, underscoring Russia's growing reliance on its eastern neighbor. This economic imbalance means that in the event of a strategic divergence, Russia would suffer far more than China, weakening the alliance's ability to present a united front against the West.

On the military front, while both China and Russia possess significant capabilities, they are individually and collectively inferior to the combined military power of the United States and its NATO allies. The U.S. defense budget, which stood at approximately $778 billion in 2020, dwarfs those of China and Russia combined. The U.S. military also benefits from technological superiority and a network of global alliances that provide strategic advantages.

China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is formidable, but it lacks combat experience compared to the U.S. military. Russia, while having a more battle-hardened military, is overstretched due to its engagements in Ukraine and other regions. Furthermore, the logistical and operational coordination between the Chinese and Russian militaries is still unproven, making their joint military endeavors less reliable.

Diplomatically, China and Russia have different strategic priorities. China's primary focus is on its immediate periphery, particularly Taiwan and the South China Sea, while Russia is more concerned with its influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. These differing priorities can lead to conflicting interests, undermining their ability to coordinate effectively against the West.

For instance, while both countries have expressed opposition to the U.S. on issues like Taiwan and Ukraine, their actual levels of commitment and strategic goals differ. China is more likely to prioritize its economic and technological competition with the U.S., while Russia is focused on reasserting its influence in former Soviet territories. This divergence is a significant weakness in their alliance, as it complicates joint strategic planning and execution.

The strength of Western alliances, particularly NATO and economic partnerships like the G7, further diminishes the China-Russia alliance's effectiveness. The West's ability to impose severe economic sanctions on Russia, and potentially on China, demonstrates the collective economic might that can be brought to bear. Additionally, the technological and military cooperation within Western alliances ensures that any challenge from China and Russia can be met with a coordinated and robust response.

The recent reinforcement of NATO's eastern flank and increased military spending among European allies indicate that the West is prepared to counter any threats from the East. The United States’ alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, including with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, further complicate China's strategic calculations.

While the partnership between China and Russia is often portrayed as a significant threat to Western dominance, it is fraught with internal weaknesses and strategic vulnerabilities. The historical mistrust, economic imbalances, differing strategic priorities, and the overwhelming military and economic power of the United States and its allies all contribute to the fragility of the China-Russia alliance. Ultimately, the alliance is unlikely to withstand the combined might of the West, making its grand proclamations of a new era more aspirational than achievable.