A Silent Coup: Suspicions Surrounding the Demise of Iran's President Raisi

 

The suspicious circumstances surrounding President Ebrahim Raisi's death have fueled widespread speculation of an insider job within Iran's political elite. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's subdued response to Raisi's death, starkly contrasting with his past emotional displays, has only deepened the public's mistrust and suspicion.

The sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th has significantly altered the political landscape in Iran. The official account of the crash has done little to quell suspicions among the Iranian populace, many of whom believe that malice may have played a role in the tragedy. The circumstances surrounding the incident, compounded by the rescue efforts and the political implications, suggest that this might have been an insider job.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's reaction to the deaths of Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was notably subdued, especially when compared to his emotional response following the assassination of Qassem Suleimani in 2020. This stark difference in demeanor has fueled speculation that the helicopter crash was not an accident. The rescue efforts added to the suspicion. Red Crescent first responders were baffled by the delays and the need to proceed on foot, despite the clear skies reported by Raisi’s chief of staff. The fact that the escort helicopters returned safely to Tabriz further deepens the mystery. Initial reports mentioned fog and a hard landing, but rescue teams found the helicopter had exploded. These inconsistencies point to the possibility of foul play.

Khamenei's swift appointment of a caretaker president and a new foreign minister, coupled with the brief tumble and recovery of Iran's currency, suggests an attempt to project stability amidst the crisis. However, the thinly veiled relief among some officials over Raisi’s demise has not gone unnoticed. Raisi, often seen as the most loyal of Khamenei’s presidents, was a significant figure groomed by Khamenei for decades. His obedience and lack of a personal power base made him an ideal candidate for the supreme leader’s inner circle. Yet, his recent actions, such as calling himself ayatollah and acquiring an international profile, may have threatened Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, who is believed to be a contender for the succession.

Mojtaba Khamenei, who manages his father's household, the bayt, might be the primary beneficiary of Raisi’s death. Raisi's growing confidence and support, including backing from his powerful father-in-law, could have posed a challenge to Mojtaba’s aspirations. Moreover, Raisi’s public spat with Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, a close relative of Khamenei, indicated his rising stature and potential to build a camp of dissent within the establishment. This internal power struggle may have prompted those loyal to Mojtaba to act against Raisi.

Following Raisi’s death, Ayatollah Khamenei reshuffled the Assembly of Experts on May 21st, a body where Raisi played a significant role. The regime has also scheduled a new presidential election for June 28th, with the Guardian Council expected to vet candidates to favor the Khamenei faction. Potential candidates include Mohammad Mokhber, the new caretaker president and a loyalist managing the bayt’s business empires, and Saeed Jalili, a hardline conservative. This maneuvering aims to ensure that the elected institutions remain subordinate to the theocratic power of Khamenei’s wilayat al-faqih.

The challenge for Mojtaba Khamenei will be to secure popular support. Discontent with the regime is high, and many Iranians viewed Raisi’s death with a sense of grim satisfaction. The lack of popular backing or a strong internal constituency could leave Mojtaba dependent on the military hardliners, leading to further repression and potential instability in Iran. This scenario could exacerbate internal struggles for power and increase Iran’s belligerence on the global stage, with dire consequences for its citizens and neighbors.

However, there is a possibility that Mojtaba could chart a different course. Inspired by Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, Mojtaba might choose to modernize Iran, relaxing religious restrictions, releasing political prisoners, and seeking rapprochement with the West. This path could win him the support of the Iranian people, who have long desired reform. Yet, Iran's complex history of resistance against dictatorship makes such a transition fraught with challenges. The experience of the shah in 1979, who attempted secular modernization only to be overthrown, serves as a cautionary tale.

In plain terms, the death of President Ebrahim Raisi has undeniably shifted the power dynamics in Iran. The suspicions surrounding his death, the rapid political maneuvers, and the potential rise of Mojtaba Khamenei all point to a critical juncture in Iran’s history. Whether Iran moves towards greater repression or seizes the opportunity for reform remains to be seen. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the Islamic Republic.