Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Red, Blue, and Overdue: Why No Winner Will Be Named Tonight

 


America will stay awake tonight, but the results sure won’t. We may sit glued to our screens, but we’ll only get frustration instead of results because the system is built to prolong our agony for the sake of 'accuracy' and 'integrity'—buzzwords that delay true decision-making.

With ballots cast and watch parties underway, the 2024 presidential election has arrived, and so has its drama. We can almost smell the popcorn at Mar-a-Lago, where former President Trump gathers his loyalists, while Vice President Harris holds down the watch party at Howard University. Both are dreaming of those magical 270 electoral votes tonight, but let's be real—Americans may want to tuck in with patience because that clear, decisive winner isn't likely to emerge tonight.

In a country built on swift gratification, waiting isn’t exactly what Americans do best, but Election Night has always been a night that tests nerves and tolerance. It’s a throwback to the chaos of 2020, where the term “election night” became a bit of a misnomer as it dragged on into an "election week." Once again, those same forces are at play in 2024, amplified by the razor-thin margins we’ve seen in polling data leading up to today. In a way, this is American democracy at its most suspenseful—almost as thrilling as a Netflix binge, only real lives and futures are at stake.

Both Harris and Trump, representing the most divergent visions of America, have made their final pitches. Trump, in the sunny glitz of Palm Beach, and Harris, in the heart of Washington D.C., now face the daunting reality: this isn’t just about making pitches, it’s about counting ballots. But as is often said, "The evening crowns the day," and this election evening may turn out to be less of a crowning and more of a cliffhanger.

The lessons of 2020 loom large. Mail-in voting, early voting, late-counting ballots—the process stretches the patience of even the most loyal political junkies. While Trump throws an ostentatious watch party among gold-plated chandeliers at Mar-a-Lago, he’s also hoping the very votes he once disparaged will deliver him back to power. Remember how he famously called mail-in ballots “a scam” just a few years ago? Ironically, those ballots—those trickling, late-counted votes—could very well shape his political fate tonight. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris plays it safer, rallying at her alma mater and keeping faith in a generation of voters who align themselves more with her vision of inclusion, progressive ideals, and the continuation of the Biden-Harris legacy.

Let's face it—American elections today are more marathon than sprint, thanks in part to the reforms aimed at expanding voter participation. From the Voting Rights Act to the more recent For the People Act, voting processes have been opened up to include as many citizens as possible, and yet, the counting remains cumbersome. Multiple states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia, are likely to be the culprits of any delay, not because of incompetence but due to regulations surrounding mail-in and absentee ballots. Pennsylvania, for instance, only begins counting mail-in votes on Election Day—just like they did in 2020. Georgia, meanwhile, is dealing with record voter turnout, which is a double-edged sword: a triumph for democracy, but a bottleneck in counting ballots.

 

To the average American watching cable news with snacks in hand, this might feel like a repeat of the 2020 nail-biter. Election denial, claims of voter fraud, recounts—the ghosts of 2020 haven’t yet been laid to rest. Trump, more experienced this time, has perhaps adopted a softer rhetoric, but don’t be fooled—his legal team is on standby, ready to raise questions if the numbers aren’t in his favor. And we know from history—whether it’s Bush v. Gore in 2000 or the chaos of 2020—that when elections are close, they end up in court as much as in the court of public opinion. Proverbs tell us, "The axe forgets, but the tree remembers." Trump’s campaign has not forgotten 2020, and its strategy tonight shows it.

The needle, as they say, will hover, and networks will be reluctant to call anything prematurely. We might get an inkling, an educated guess—but America’s networks, burned by past false projections (think back to Dewey Defeats Truman), know better than to declare a victor when votes are still being counted. As the Federal Election Commission repeatedly states, the process must be thorough, transparent, and compliant with each state’s laws. This is particularly true in battleground states where razor-thin margins could mean a recount—possibly a trigger for another political and legal saga.

Harris and Trump have approached this final day with contrasting tones. Trump, basking in the echoes of his previous MAGA rallies, appeals to nostalgia—a yearning for a version of America he claims has been lost. Harris, meanwhile, faces a challenge: maintaining enthusiasm for a government she’s been part of, without appearing as just an extension of President Biden. Biden’s approval ratings, hovering around 42%, reflect a weary electorate—one uncertain if they are satisfied or simply fatigued by the polarized nature of American politics. This means that Harris must differentiate herself just enough to attract swing voters while keeping the Democratic base energized, and that delicate balancing act doesn’t end on Election Day; it continues until every ballot is tallied.

One thing that has become clear is that despite the grand speeches and last-minute pleas, this election will hinge not on charisma but on turnout. Voter mobilization has proven to be a deciding factor in recent American elections. In 2020, Biden's victory was credited to efforts that boosted turnout, particularly in urban centers and minority communities, who responded to a complex combination of social justice issues and pandemic-related crises. In this election, the turnout strategy has been no less critical. Harris has focused on galvanizing young voters, Black women, and urban centers, while Trump has leaned heavily on rural counties and working-class white voters. It’s as if both sides are digging trenches deeper, expanding bases but struggling to persuade the opposition—classic trench warfare of modern U.S. elections.

The narrative isn’t just about who casts the most votes tonight—it’s about how and when those votes are counted. Swing states, with their patchwork of regulations, hold the key to this drama. Florida is expected to count votes faster because of early processing, but it may not be enough to call the race definitively without knowing what happens in places like Arizona and Nevada, where counting can drag on for days. The irony, of course, is that many of these laws were designed to prevent voter fraud, to ensure “integrity,” but have instead created procedural roadblocks that make Election Night a bit of a guessing game. The wait, we are told, is the price of freedom—a rather poetic line until it’s three days later and your sleep-deprived democracy is still waiting for Nevada.

As Americans, we’ve come to accept this unpredictability in elections, but we have not grown comfortable with it. Perhaps it is because we see elections as the pulse of our freedom, yet that pulse is increasingly delayed, tangled in bureaucracy and procedural delays. The world watches, as it did in 2020, trying to make sense of a system that is a mix of tradition and confusion—a system in which, despite advances in technology, humans remain at its core, with all the delays and errors they bring.

Trump needs 270 electoral votes. Harris needs 270 electoral votes. And yet, neither may know for certain tonight if they’ve gotten them. "Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet," goes the old adage, and that patience will once again be tested by slow counts in pivotal states. While pundits argue over networks trying to be the first to call results, the rest of us are left to wonder whether the American electoral system, this great, unwieldy beast, could finally modernize for good. But who needs that when we’ve got watch parties, legal battles, and a national dose of suspense that would make Hitchcock proud?

And so, dear reader, brace yourself. You may need to brew an extra pot of coffee tonight—or perhaps tomorrow night too—because once again, Election Day is no longer just a day. It’s an era of prolonged suspense, and it looks like it’s here to stay. In the grand American tradition of excess, even counting ballots now takes longer than the parties that celebrate them.

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Red, Blue, and Overdue: Why No Winner Will Be Named Tonight

  America will stay awake tonight, but the results sure won’t. We may sit glued to our screens, but we’ll only get frustration instead of re...