Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Like Dorothy vs. the Wizard: Ukraine Shows Putin’s RS-26 Threats Are All Bark and No Bite

 


The Wizard of Oz promised magical solutions from behind his curtain; similarly, Putin is doing the same with the RS-26—his 'powerful' missile is nothing but a hollow scarecrow meant to frighten rather than to truly deliver. Just as Dorothy used a simple bucket of water to defeat the seemingly invincible Witch, Ukraine's resilience and Western support have proven that the 'mighty' Russian threats can be neutralized with sheer courage and determination. 

Putin's new missile threat is, once again, a noisy bark from behind the curtain—a lot of thunder, but not much lightning. With a new warning of the RS-26 intercontinental ballistic missile being aimed at Kyiv, Russia wants the world, especially Ukraine, to tremble. But is this the devastating blow it claims to be, or is it simply another hollow scare tactic meant to intimidate and distract? Like the Wizard in Oz, Putin seems to conjure powerful imagery with fiery threats, but look a bit closer, and the illusions quickly begin to unravel.

The RS-26 missile—being portrayed as a phantom menace poised to cripple Ukraine’s capital—is said to travel at five times the speed of sound. It sounds impressive, but let's not forget that it's still a tool of war, just like countless others in the Russian arsenal. Weapons, after all, don't possess magical powers; their efficiency depends on factors like precision, deployment, and response. The RS-26 is no exception. Despite all the fanfare, the Western-supplied missile defenses in Ukraine, such as the Patriot missile systems, have proven to be an ongoing thorn in Russia's side, neutralizing many threats launched by Moscow. The RS-26's alleged speed makes it challenging to shoot down, but hardly impossible—military history is full of "unstoppable" weapons that turned out to be anything but.

On Wednesday, when Ukraine reportedly struck a command post in Kursk with British Storm Shadow missiles and hit Bryansk with American ATACMS, it demonstrated that Russia's so-called “untouchable” borders are anything but invincible. Putin's retaliation talk seems to follow a well-worn script—threaten Kyiv in response to Western weapon usage, posture with grandiose rhetoric, and paint Ukraine as aggressors. This reaction is nothing new. And yet, despite all these threats, daily life in Kyiv continues. People still stroll the streets with headphones on, parents still escort their children to school, and baristas still make lattes, unshaken by yet another promise of catastrophe.

History tends to repeat itself, and this situation with Putin is no different from the blustering moments of the Cold War when leaders threatened nuclear destruction but were ultimately restrained by the looming reality of mutually assured destruction. The RS-26 is being painted as a game-changer, but is it? The Wizard of Oz promised powerful magic too, until Dorothy pulled back the curtain. Putin’s supposed trump card doesn’t look very different. For all the rhetoric, the missile is ultimately a piece of technology susceptible to human error, countermeasures, and the complexities of real combat scenarios.

Take a moment to think of Dorothy and the Wizard. When Dorothy confronted the Wizard, expecting an all-powerful figure, she found an ordinary man hiding behind levers and smoke. The “Wizard” was a construct of fear and illusion. Putin’s new RS-26 missile is very much the same—a construct meant to terrify, to make Kyiv bow down and the world panic. But Dorothy didn’t bow. Armed with just a bucket of water, she defeated the real danger—the Wicked Witch of the West. This act, simple yet brave, reminds us that courage and resourcefulness have always been the best tools against intimidation and deceit. Ukraine, with its resilience, is very much in Dorothy's shoes, armed not with buckets but with international support and unwavering resolve.

Putin’s military analyst Timur Syrlanov claims Ukrainians should be “trembling” at the prospect of the RS-26 being deployed. But here's the reality: Ukrainians have endured, resisted, and continued with their lives amid bombardments, sirens, and daily threats since February 2022. The same missile system that is supposed to instill fear is being rolled out while Kyiv residents navigate their day-to-day, unfazed. There’s a proverb that says, “A barking dog never bites,” and with each passing threat, it becomes clear that the RS-26 might be more bark than bite—a desperate attempt to maintain an illusion of overwhelming power, even as the cracks begin to show.

Consider the embassies that closed in Kyiv following these threats—the United States, Greece, Italy, Spain, all shuttering operations in anticipation of a “massive airstrike.” The closures are a serious show of concern, but perhaps more indicative of caution rather than genuine belief in an imminent apocalypse. The very next day, life in Kyiv resumed. People rode the metro, children attended school, and a girls' dance class even performed in a basement bomb shelter for World Children’s Day. This resilience, this commitment to living despite the threats, is the true power that no RS-26 or Iskander missile can shatter.

False messages about 317 radio-controlled strike drones spread throughout Ukraine, and people sheltered, anticipating another massive attack—only for it to turn out to be a “false flag.” These tactics are meant to disorient and terrorize, to keep the population in a state of perpetual anxiety. Yet, for a populace that has faced nearly 1,370 air raid alerts in Kyiv alone, the resolve doesn’t weaken. If anything, the Ukrainian spirit echoes the determination of Dorothy—undaunted by the illusions and unbroken by the intimidation.

And here we see the real story. Putin’s threats—whether they involve the RS-26, Iskanders, or even the notion of a nuclear strike—are not unlike the Wizard’s exaggerated threats from behind the curtain. They are designed to make the target feel small, helpless, and overwhelmed. But the truth is, the RS-26 missile, touted as a harbinger of destruction, is just another piece on the chessboard of warfare. It doesn’t wield any mythical power that can subjugate a population whose spirit refuses to be broken.

The RS-26 weighs 50 tons and carries a warhead supposedly three times larger than the Iskander. These are numbers meant to impress, to frighten, to draw headlines. But the history of warfare is filled with examples of seemingly invincible weapons meeting their match. From the over-hyped V-2 rockets of World War II, which were supposed to bring Britain to its knees, to the “super” tanks that could be stopped by a resourceful foot soldier with a well-placed grenade, it’s clear that weaponry alone doesn’t decide the outcome. It’s the resilience of people, the ingenuity in response, and the steadfastness against fear that decide outcomes.

In this instance, Russia’s attempt to portray its new missile as an unmatched weapon of terror seems to be more about image than reality. The RS-26, like other much-hyped weapons, relies heavily on the narrative of invincibility. When that narrative is stripped away—like pulling back the Wizard’s curtain—all that remains is a missile, subject to all the same uncertainties and vulnerabilities as any other. The irony is, by brandishing this missile, Putin exposes his desperation more than his strength, akin to the Wizard using smoke and mirrors while desperately hiding his true impotence.

It is essential to understand the psychology behind Putin’s threats. The aim is not merely military; it’s psychological warfare. The point is to create fear, not just within Ukraine, but internationally. The moment countries like Italy, Spain, and Greece close their embassies in Kyiv, Putin's objective is partly achieved—he wants to make Ukraine look like a dangerous, uninhabitable place. Yet, the Ukrainian people are demonstrating that their spirit cannot be so easily crushed. Like Dorothy facing the imposing Wizard, Ukraine stands firm, not allowing itself to be cowed by threats from behind a curtain.

There is also a historical precedent that bears recalling here. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the world witnessed a dangerous standoff where nuclear threats loomed large. Khrushchev’s posturing and Kennedy’s firm yet cautious response showcased a game of chicken that almost led to global disaster. Yet, the key takeaway is that both parties eventually recognized the futility of escalating such threats to their logical conclusion. Today, Putin’s missile threats echo Khrushchev’s; they are meant to project power rather than use it. The bluff worked for Khrushchev—for a while—until the world saw through the posturing, just as it is beginning to see through Putin’s own.

The threat of a missile like the RS-26 may indeed be real. Its power to destroy should not be trivialized, but let’s not pretend it has the power to break Ukraine’s will. Russia’s missile tests and deployment threats are not new—whether it’s the RS-26 or its other arsenal, the playbook remains the same: escalate, intimidate, then threaten the direst consequences. And yet, with each passing day, Ukraine remains standing, showing the resilience of a people who have learned not to flinch when the Wizard’s voice booms over the speakers.

So here we are, with Putin behind his curtain, throwing out threats like candy at a parade, hoping to dazzle and terrify. But every time Kyiv wakes up to another day, every time a dance class performs in a bomb shelter, or a barista makes a latte while air raid sirens blare, it becomes clearer that Russia’s RS-26 is not the ultimate end-all that the Kremlin would have us believe. It’s just another page in the story, another lever pulled by a man behind a curtain who wants to be seen as invincible but is slowly being exposed for what he truly is—just another Wizard who’s all show and no substance.

And maybe, just maybe, all it takes to bring down the illusions of a wizard is not a bigger bomb or a faster missile but simply the courage to confront the show for what it is, with nothing more than a bucket of water and an unwavering spirit. Now wouldn’t that just make for the perfect ending? Too bad Putin hasn’t read the script.

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