European nations, aside from Ukraine, have turned "strategic autonomy" into nothing more than an empty phrase, using diplomatic jargon to hide their reluctance to confront Russia directly—preferring inaction to actually challenging threats on their doorstep.
The reality of Europe's defense stance is as subtle as a foghorn—loud but insubstantial. Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia is casting a long shadow over the continent, revealing deep-rooted flaws in European security. It is unsettling, but no less true, that even thirty years after the Cold War's end, Europe continues to lean heavily on American hard power. This has become painfully evident with the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. American tanks, funding, and support rushed across the Atlantic, while Europe found itself fumbling through NATO meetings, holding press conferences, and offering tepid assistance, all the while shielding their heads from the uncomfortable reality—a reliance that has long outlived its convenience.
The United States, meanwhile, is a stretched thread on the loom of global power. From its commitments in the Indo-Pacific to tensions with China and the ever-prevalent complexities in the Middle East, America is over-extended. And while it still carries the burden of European security—an aging and costly commitment—it is becoming clear that America’s focus is drifting elsewhere, specifically to the rising Asian sphere. President Biden’s administration, even as it champions transatlantic unity, is attempting to allocate precious resources toward curbing China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. If one scratches below the surface, it becomes evident that the Democrats' rhetoric of solidarity can only stretch so far before snapping under the weight of geopolitical necessity.
The situation is likely to become far worse should the leadership change to someone like Donald Trump. Under his previous tenure, Trump made it clear that he saw NATO as an outdated, costly venture for the United States—a Europe-first security blanket that no longer justified the hefty American price tag. The transactional nature of his politics meant a lot of “what's in it for us?” rather than the selfless commitment NATO once pretended to be. A return to such leadership could easily push Europe further into the deep end of strategic loneliness. This isn't mere conjecture—Trump previously threatened to pull the United States out of NATO, demanding European countries pay a larger share for their defense. And who is to say such threats will not evolve into stark realities if he takes office again?
At the heart of it, European countries continue to be weak and distracted, a political flaw that’s all the more glaring in times of crisis. Many European leaders, particularly in France, Italy, and Germany, are grappling with problems on their home fronts that leave them no room to deal with continental security. Inflation is still biting hard. Energy insecurity, exacerbated by a reduction in Russian supplies, is stinging Europe like a thousand wasps, prompting national leaders to place focus on local constituents rather than an elusive “common European cause.” President Macron of France, despite his sweeping statements on "European sovereignty," continues to face weekly protests domestically, which leaves his rhetoric often floundering for solid footing. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, similarly, finds himself balancing a precarious coalition government and a hesitant stance on providing military hardware to Ukraine, lest the Russian bear turns its ire more decisively westward. Germany’s hesitancy cost Europe, with critics arguing that it emboldened Russia in the early days of its invasion.
This phenomenon is not unlike the appeasement mentality of the 1930s when Europe, hesitant to provoke Hitler, paved the way for the Second World War through inaction. The eerie echoes of history reverberate today. As one watches European leaders dither and debate endlessly, one can almost hear the forlorn tones of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain declaring “peace for our time,” only for that promise to crumble spectacularly months later. It is as though the lessons of the past—of how inaction and appeasement lead to greater catastrophe—have conveniently faded away.
And then there’s the matter of the European defense spending promise. When NATO members committed in 2014 to spend 2% of their GDP on defense, few countries took this seriously. The latest data reveals that, as of 2023, only seven out of the thirty-one NATO countries are hitting this 2% benchmark. Even rich countries like Germany continue to fall short, spending around 1.5% of GDP on defense, far less than what the alliance expects. Words, promises, and grand statements without action have left the continent vulnerable. There is little to suggest that these spending targets will be consistently met or maintained, especially as European governments face competing fiscal demands amid an energy crisis and rising social costs.
Of course, there are some exceptions. Ukraine stands as an outlier in European resolve. Their bravery, mobilization of resources, and grassroots defense efforts are lessons that Europe should not only heed but emulate. Ukrainians have demonstrated the kind of resolve that European countries have, for too long, relegated to the pages of their history books. It is a sobering irony that Ukraine, a non-NATO member, has shown the most determination and defiance in the face of Russian aggression. Meanwhile, other European nations—who are beneficiaries of NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense guarantee—seem content to let their national security rest in the hands of American forces stationed in Europe and in the words printed in treaties.
This reluctance to take responsibility for defense in Europe isn’t simply a political failing; it is a cultural and generational issue. Since the Cold War ended, an entire generation of Europeans has grown up accustomed to peace as the default, to American bases in Germany as a guarantee, and to military threats as something that happened somewhere else—in the sands of Afghanistan or the jungles of Vietnam. Even the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Russia's war against Ukraine from 2022 seemed, to many, as tragic, but still someone else’s tragedy. The bitter truth is that Europe has largely forgotten how to fight for itself, blinded by the comfortable belief that someone else, somewhere else, will do the fighting for them.
Not since the days leading up to World War II have European leaders needed to demonstrate such courage and statesmanship in the face of real existential threats. They must face facts—neither the United States nor anyone else will forever guarantee European security, especially with the shifting power dynamics globally. Relying indefinitely on American largesse is no longer a sustainable option. European countries must bolster their militaries, increase defense spending, and perhaps most importantly, foster the political will necessary to confront rogue states like Russia, head-on, and without hesitation.
Yet, what we’re more likely to witness is an even deeper immersion into denial—a further burying of heads in the sand. Take Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, for example. While Western Europe rallied behind Ukraine, Orbán’s Budapest administration cozied up to Moscow, highlighting fractures within European unity. When a continent cannot even agree on a common stance regarding blatant aggression on its doorstep, one cannot help but wonder about the depth of the so-called European unity. And let’s not forget Italy, whose leaders continue to speak out against sanctions on Russia due to fears of their economic impacts. It is a unity riddled with contradictions and half-hearted commitments.
The clock is ticking, but instead of facing the threats head-on, European leaders seem more adept at arguing over who pays the bill for the next gas shipment than on forming a cohesive defense policy. The vultures of complacency have long circled over Europe, and today they are coming home to roost. If Europe’s leaders fail to wake up to this new reality, the continent may soon face a grim reckoning—a descent into a security crisis it is wholly unprepared for. After all, as the old proverb goes, "Those who sleep in a storm must be prepared to wake up in ruins." And it seems, in true European fashion, they’ve decided that denial is far cozier than preparation.
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