Friday, October 13, 2023

Understanding Hamas' Political and Military Power

For years, Hamas maintained political dominance in Gaza and simultaneously improved its military capabilities. This unexpected development caught Israel by surprise as its defense establishment had presumed that Hamas had opted to avoid large-scale confrontations in recent years, believing that its capacity for such actions was constrained. Regrettably, this presumption proved to be incorrect.

The recent tragic events in the Middle East have deeply shaken the world. Over the past week, Hamas militants orchestrated a series of shocking and unforeseen terror attacks against Israel. These reprehensible actions resulted in the loss of over 1,300 lives, the majority of whom were innocent civilians. Additionally, more than 3,200 individuals sustained injuries, and approximately 150 people were taken hostage. These harrowing incidents have compelled me to embark on a comprehensive exploration into the size and extent of Hamas's presence and influence. The outcomes of my research are both chilling and thought-provoking. The central question that looms is: Just how potent and entrenched is Hamas in the region?

Hamas, which stands for the Islamic Resistance Movement, was established in 1987 by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, a Palestinian religious leader. This happened during the turbulent period known as the first intifada, when many Palestinians rose up against Israel's control of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Yassin had previously become associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the world's oldest Islamist organizations, during his time in Cairo. He envisioned Hamas as the political offshoot of the Brotherhood, specifically in the Gaza region. In its initial charter released in 1988, Hamas asserted its primary mission: to free Palestine from Israeli rule, which it considered illegitimate. In pursuit of this goal, the organization launched its first attacks against Israeli military targets in 1989 and later formally established a military branch in the early 1990s. It made its opposition to the Oslo accords, which sought to establish peace between Israel and the Palestinians, clear by resorting to suicide bombings within Israeli territories.

Hamas's emergence and actions during this period marked a significant development in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Their dedication to resistance and their militant activities made them a prominent player in the ongoing struggle for control over Palestinian territories, and their ideologies and actions have continued to shape the complex dynamics in the region for many years to come.

In the beginning, Hamas wasn't very strong in both politics and the military. However, over time, it gained more political influence among the Palestinian people. In 2006, a year after Israel left Gaza, Hamas won most of the seats in a Palestinian election. Later on, they formed a new government together with Fatah, which was their rival group with a focus on Palestinian nationalism. Then, in June 2007, after a short civil war, Hamas took full control of Gaza, leaving Fatah in charge of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. As a response, Israel and Egypt put a tight blockade on Gaza in 2007. This action seriously hurt Gaza's economy and basically trapped its people in a very small area. Since then, there haven't been any more elections. Hamas has been running Gaza like a one-party state, which some Palestinians there aren't happy about. However, many Palestinians still see Hamas as more capable and less corrupt than the struggling Palestinian Authority.

Despite the challenging blockade, Hamas managed to slowly strengthen its military capabilities. By 2008, when they launched their first war against Israel, they had built a well-organized military structure and trained thousands of fighters. They received support from Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah, a militant group in Lebanon backed by Iran. During this time, they had been launching simple rockets for about a year. However, these rocket attacks didn't have much impact on the military situation, and in response, Israel launched strikes on Gaza that resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200-1,400 Palestinians.

Hamas continued to evolve its tactics over the years. In 2014, during their third war with Israel (following a second one in 2012), their combat capabilities had significantly expanded. They had more rockets with greater range, and they became more skilled at hiding their military facilities. They developed a network of offensive tunnels into Israel and another for smuggling weapons from Egypt. They also improved the effectiveness of their ground combat forces, who engaged in battle for 50 days. By 2021, Hamas had the capacity to fire 4,300 rockets at Israel within just 11 days (compared to approximately 4,500 rockets over 50 days in 2014). However, despite these advancements, Hamas remained outmatched by Israel. In 2021, their rocket barrages killed a dozen people, and in response, Israel launched airstrikes and attacks, causing further destruction in the already struggling Gaza Strip and resulting in the deaths of over 200 people.

For a span of two years, Hamas seemed to be deliberately avoiding escalating the conflict with Israel. This tactic led many to make the mistaken assumption that the prominent figures within the group's leadership were primarily focused on strengthening their control over Gaza, the territory they govern. However, the surprising attack that occurred on October 7th took everyone by surprise, as it displayed a level of sophistication far beyond any of their previous actions. In this daring move, Hamas targeted Israel's surveillance systems, rendering them ineffective by disabling security cameras. Additionally, they employed advanced electronic warfare techniques and successfully jammed Israeli communication systems, as reported by Reuters. These developments strongly suggest that Hamas has been actively working to enhance its military technologies over an extended period, possibly with some form of external support, which could potentially come from Iran.

Despite the significant asymmetry between the two sides, with Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) possessing both numerical and equipment advantages, Hamas managed to carry out this attack. Israel estimates that Hamas has around 30,000 fighters in its ranks. In response to the escalating tension, Israel called up an additional 300,000 reservists to join its already substantial force of approximately 170,000 active soldiers. Furthermore, the IDF boasts a significantly larger arsenal, which includes missile boats and tanks. This lopsided power dynamic creates a palpable sense of apprehension among the two million civilians residing in Gaza, who are left bracing for the potential consequences and impact of any further escalation or conflict.

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

Epstein, J., & Lee, L. (2023, October 13). Israel Dropped More Bombs on Gaza in 6 Days than the US-Led Coalition Dropped in Any Month Fighting ISIS. Retrieved from Yahoo News: https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-dropped-more-bombs-gaza-211449462.html

Jefferis, J. (2016). Hamas: Terrorism, Governance, and Its Future in Middle East Politics. Westport, CT: Praeger .

Kingsley , P., & Bergman, R. (2023, October 13). How Hamas Overran Southern Israel and Killed 1,300. Retrieved from New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/world/middleeast/hamas-israel-attack-gaza.html

Milton-Edwards, B., & Farrell, S. (2010). Hamas: The Islamic Resistance Movement. Malden, MA: Polity Press.

Robinson, K. (2023, October 9). What Is Hamas? Retrieved from Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas

The Economist. (2023, October 10). The Economist Explains: How Powerful is Hamas? . Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2023/10/10/how-powerful-is-hamas

U.S. Department of State. (2003, August 22). U.S. Designates Five Charities Funding Hamas and Six Senior Hamas Leaders as Terrorist Entities. Retrieved from Press Release: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/js672

U.S. Department of State. (2023). Foreign Terrorist Organizations. Retrieved from Bureau of Counterterrorism: https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/

Zegart, A. (2023, October 11). Israel’s Intelligence Disaster: How the Security Establishment Could Have Underestimated the Hamas Threat. Retrieved from Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/israels-intelligence-disaster

 

 

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