Today's Hamas attack reveals a significant intelligence failure and misguided assumptions by Israel regarding Hamas's intentions. This breach undermines Israel's military deterrence and emboldens groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially involved in the planning, posing a substantial security threat. It's imperative for Israel and its allies, including the United States, to reevaluate their national security strategies in light of this development.
On the morning of October 7th, Israelis were in the midst of celebrating Simchat Torah, a joyous Jewish festival that marks the culmination of a year-long cycle of reading the Torah. It is a time when families and communities come together, and the atmosphere is typically filled with warmth and religious significance. However, this day took an alarming turn as the tranquility was shattered by a barrage of more than 2,000 rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, a small, densely populated Palestinian enclave along the coast.
As the day unfolded, news reports began to
paint a much grimmer picture. Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist organization
governing Gaza, had orchestrated a series of audacious attacks deep within
Israeli territory. The fortified border fence, which had long separated Israel
from Gaza, became a target for militants who used trucks and bulldozers laden
with explosives to breach it. In a surreal twist, armed fighters in motorized
gliders soared over the fence, infiltrating Israeli defenses. Not confined to
land-based attacks, Hamas fighters even used boats to strike at an Israeli
coastal military base, adding another layer of complexity to the unfolding
crisis.
For the people of Israel, this was a day of
shock and uncertainty. The festive mood had given way to fear and insecurity as
they grappled with the reality of these unprecedented attacks. The breach of
the border and the coordinated assaults within Israel's borders exposed
vulnerabilities that had previously been taken for granted. Beyond Israel's
borders, the implications were significant, with the potential to embolden
other militant groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon. Faced with this evolving
security landscape, Israel and its allies, including the United States, found
themselves at a crossroads, compelled to reevaluate their national security
strategies and priorities to protect their citizens and promote regional
stability.
For the Israeli citizens, the situation is
very horrific. Imagine waking up on a peaceful morning, celebrating a cherished
Jewish festival, Simchat Torah, with loved ones. The day should have been
filled with joy and tradition, but it took a horrifying turn. Footage of the
attacks, widely shared on social media, shattered the tranquility, sending
shockwaves through the hearts of ordinary Israeli citizens, especially those
huddled in bomb shelters. These were people who had grown used to a sense of
security, and the sudden onslaught left them bewildered and deeply shaken.
The videos captured Palestinian fighters in
jeeps and on motorcycles firing at civilians in the quaint streets of small
Israeli towns and kibbutzim near Gaza. The unthinkable had happened even within
the heart of the Israeli military's primary divisional headquarters for Gaza.
Tragically, a music festival turned into a scene of carnage, with dozens of
casualties. In this chaos, civilians, off-duty soldiers, and police officers
found themselves thrust into a surreal battle, and special forces units were
hastily deployed to the south. By the evening, the grim toll was reported on
Israeli media, with at least 150 lives lost and 1,100 people wounded.
The anxiety among Israelis deepened as they
watched harrowing videos released by Hamas, showing captured Israeli soldiers
and civilians being forcibly taken across the border into Gaza. Israel's chief
military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, acknowledged the ongoing
conflict, expressing concerns that members of Hamas might still be lurking
within Israel's vicinity near the Gaza border. The gravity of the situation was
underscored by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's solemn declaration to the
nation: "We are at war." He stressed that this wasn't a mere military
operation or an exchange of fire; it was an all-out war. Netanyahu vowed that
Israel would respond with unprecedented force, leading to dozens of air strikes
in retaliation.
These initial strikes resulted in significant
human suffering, with Palestinian officials reporting at least 198 people
killed and over 1,600 injured. However, Israel's preparations for a much larger
operation in the days ahead became evident as thousands of reservists were
called up. The scale suggested that Israel was gearing up for a substantial
offensive, with the goal of targeting key Hamas leaders Yihya Sinwar and
Mohammed Deif, who had previously eluded elimination. This attack and the
anticipated Israeli response were of an entirely different magnitude compared
to recent years, and the consequences rippled far beyond the immediate
conflict. As Hamas celebrated its actions, Israel faced an arduous path ahead,
grappling with the profound implications for the region and its people.
How
Did Israel's Intelligence Miss this Well-Planned Hamas Assault?
The
scale of Israel's intelligence lapse in anticipating and preparing for this
attack is beyond exaggeration. For many Israelis, it triggered a chilling
recollection of the Yom Kippur war in 1973 when Egypt and Syria, in a
coordinated assault, caught Israel off guard on the holiest day of the Jewish
calendar. This Hamas incursion, employing diverse tactics, required months of
meticulous training, planning, and weapon procurement. Israel's surveillance of
the embattled coastal strip is intensive, and all phone and internet
communications from Gaza pass through Israeli infrastructure.
This
failure isn't confined to intelligence collection and analysis; it is also a
conceptual failure. Recent years saw the Israeli defense establishment assume
that dominant forces within Hamas leadership in Gaza had shifted focus away
from widescale confrontation with Israel to consolidate their rule within the
strip, which they seized from the rival, Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority
in a violent coup in 2007. The consequences of Saturday morning's attack will
be dire for Israel, as its military deterrence has been marred by scenes of
Palestinian fighters moving freely through Israeli kibbutzim and the town of
Sderot. Additionally, it bolsters regional actors like Hezbollah, the Iranian-supported
Shia movement in Lebanon, currently hosting Hamas leaders in Beirut who may
have been involved in the attack planning.
Within
Israel, questions will loom over Prime Minister Netanyahu's leadership,
following a tumultuous nine months marked by contentious constitutional
reforms. Netanyahu's supporters may shift blame onto the intelligence
community, some of whose members, as reserve officers, have been actively
involved in recent protests against the government and have called for fellow reservists
to boycott service. While criticism remains subdued amidst the ongoing
conflict, it may not stay silent indefinitely.
In
recent weeks, the Middle East had been abuzz with discussions about advanced
talks to establish diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a
potentially historic development. It remains uncertain how these negotiations
will be impacted, given Saudi Arabia's aversion to Hamas. Nevertheless, the
morning raids on Israel serve as a stark reminder that lasting peace on its border
remains a distant aspiration.
The
bottom line is this: This Hamas assault appears to be a clear effort by Iran to
disrupt the peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, given the
unmistakable signs pointing to Iran as the primary backer of Hamas. In my view,
it is imperative for the United States to offer Israel the necessary military
and diplomatic assistance to effectively counter Hamas. Furthermore, the Biden
administration should discontinue all diplomatic dialogue with Iran. President
Biden cannot assert unwavering support for Israel while simultaneously engaging
in diplomatic relations with Iran, a nation considered an adversary by Israel.
Notes
Federman, J., & Adwam, I. (2023, October 7). Netanyahu
Declares War on Hamas After Surprise Attack Kills Hundreds of Israelis. Retrieved
from PBS News Hour:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/netanyahu-declares-war-on-hamas-after-deadly-surprise-attack-kills-dozens-of-israelis
Rabinovich, A. (2004). The Yom Kippur War: The Epic
Encounter that Transformed the Middle East. New York: Schocken.
The Economist. (2023, October 7). A Shocking Assault:
Israel Reels as Hamas Launches a Spectacular and Bloody Offensive.
Retrieved from
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/07/israel-reels-as-hamas-launches-a-spectacular-and-bloody-offensive
Ward, M., & Howie, C. (2023, October 7). ‘Rock Solid
and Unwavering': Biden Pledges Support for Israel After Hamas Attacks.
Retrieved from Politico:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/07/hamas-terrorism-attacks-on-israeli-civilians-00120480
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