How Ukraine Politically Outmaneuvered, Operationally Outperformed, and Tactically Humiliated Russia

 

Has Ukraine's star risen while Russia's has faded, akin to a celestial shift in power? We have been observing how, in the Black Sea's operational theater, Ukraine assumes the role of a conductor orchestrating a harmonious symphony, while Russia grapples to find its notes.

War is a complex and intricate endeavor, far removed from the simplistic portrayals often seen in Hollywood movies. In reality, there are rarely clearly defined "front lines" that can be easily breached through heroic acts. The quest to determine winners and losers in the midst of modern warfare is further complicated by the slow-motion analysis and often inaccurate interpretation of events, akin to the use of Video Assistant Referees(VAR) in sports. The fog of war is an undeniable reality, and with the advancement of technology, it becomes even more bewildering and challenging to navigate.

Amidst the intricate web of complexity and uncertainty, the ongoing events in Crimea unquestionably emerge as profoundly significant. Over the past year, a sequence of extraordinary incidents has unfolded before our eyes. Ukrainian special forces demonstrated their prowess by effectively disabling critical radar systems in August. Subsequently, Ukraine leveraged UK-supplied Storm Shadow strikes to successfully eliminate a Kilo-class submarine and a Ropucha-class landing ship. In a meticulously timed move, a follow-up strike obliterated a headquarters housing retreating senior staff in September. Moreover, the audacious special forces jet-ski raid in October exhibited levels of courage and daring akin to the legendary Cockleshell Heroes. These unfolding developments shed light on the sheer gravity of the situation in Crimea, where the distinction between bold heroism and strategic maneuvering becomes increasingly blurred.

Sevastopol is hanging on as a military stronghold, but it has been hit hard, and my American military contacts are well aware of it. Right now, there are five warships stationed there, but it is facing some serious challenges. It is not the first time we have seen military bases stubbornly defended long after they have lost their practical value, often driven by pride or emotions. One thing is for sure, life at that naval base can't be much fun these days.

Britain's Armed Forces Minister, James Heappey, recently described Russia's Black Sea Fleet as 'functionally defeated.' In naval warfare, you can render an enemy ship combat-ineffective without sinking it. This could mean taking out a major weapon system, crippling the operations room, or seriously damaging its ability to move – essentially making it useless. If that is what Heappey meant by 'functionally defeated,' then Sevastopol certainly fits the bill. But remember, Sevastopol is just one piece of the puzzle. As much as jet skis and flags make headlines, they won't be enough to retake Crimea. What about the rest of the Black Sea Fleet? They may be displaced, but they are still in the game. Their ability to disrupt and deter shipping, especially Ukraine's grain exports, has been weakened, but it has not completely shut down.

Russia's ability to send warships to harass and intercept vessels in the northwestern Black Sea is almost nonexistent right now. However, the credit for this goes more to Ukraine's superior weaponry and surveillance capabilities than anything happening in Sevastopol. But it is not a total shutdown, and the Kremlin has shown it is willing to take significant losses if they think it is necessary.

Over in Novorossiysk, there are seven Kalibr cruise missile launchers, including three Kilos that can lay mines. The tricky part about these assets is that their specific base location in the Black Sea isn't as important. Kalibr missiles have the range to strike from just about anywhere, and a submarine laying mines isn't easily deterred by Ukrainian missiles. They also have some maritime air assets, although these are few in number and getting up there in years.

Mines play a pivotal role in this overarching strategy. They offer a cost-effective means of exerting control over vital sea lanes, inducing heightened risks and subsequently inflating insurance premiums for vessels traversing those waters. What makes them particularly unsettling is their elusive nature, often lurking undetected and unaccounted for, drifting ominously into harm's way. Given this context, the recent decision by the British Royal Navy to sell two minehunters to Romania appears well-founded. While discussions regarding the entry of NATO mine countermeasures groups into the Black Sea may currently seem premature, it is increasingly probable that the exigencies of mine clearance at sea will necessitate such cooperation in the near future.

Putin's justification for the annexation of Crimea rested on the premise that it was of paramount strategic importance. However, if the safety of Russia's fleet in the region is compromised, then the question arises: at what juncture does the entire peninsula transform into just another illegally seized portion of Ukrainian territory, warranting its return? Moreover, ongoing discussions about constructing a naval base along the Black Sea coast of Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia, can only add to the Kremlin's political discomfort.

In terms of operational dynamics, the Ukrainian forces currently maintain the upper hand in the Black Sea. Russia finds itself compelled to respond in a disjointed manner, marked by fractured command and control structures, haphazard missions, and suboptimal planning. The loss of Sevastopol only exacerbates this predicament. Tactically, the Ukrainians exhibit remarkable levels of ingenuity and adaptability, executing coordinated multi-domain attacks that blend conventional and innovative weapon systems. Navies and procurement departments worldwide would do well to scrutinize these lessons at a fundamental level.

Sunk Morale

Has the balance shifted to the extent that Ukraine can now accomplish its strategic objectives while Russia cannot? It is worth noting that the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) recently declared that the threat to British shipping remains at the highest level, underscoring the continuing dangers in the region. While Sevastopol has undoubtedly suffered significant damage, the question remains: does Ukraine possess sufficient assets to strike at Crimea at will, rendering it too perilous for the 800,000 Russians residing there? The answer, for now, remains elusive.

In the absence of a sensational 'Hollywood-style breakthrough' on the land front, there is a palpable danger that the focus of attention has been redirected elsewhere, potentially obscuring the profound shifts unfolding beneath the surface. However, recent events in Crimea, particularly in Sevastopol, cannot be underestimated in terms of their far-reaching consequences. Russia finds itself ensnared in a web of political humiliation, operational intricacies, and tactical setbacks. The morale within the Black Sea Fleet, once formidable, has likely hit an all-time low. Yet, the litmus test remains whether these developments will culminate in the restoration of a semblance of freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, and it is here that I must exercise caution in labeling them as an unequivocal strategic turning point—at least, for the time being.

The absence of a spectacular breakthrough on the ground should not overshadow the significance of these maritime developments. While Russia grapples with the repercussions of its actions in Crimea, including the decaying state of its Black Sea Fleet, the international community's ability to ensure the unfettered movement of ships in these contested waters remains the ultimate yardstick of change. Until this vital aspect is decisively altered, it may be premature to definitively brand these events as a watershed moment in the larger geopolitical narrative, reminding us that the multifaceted dynamics of conflict often unfold beyond the confines of Hollywood-style heroics.

 

 

 

The Rats of New York: Managing the City’s Rodent Population via Metal Waste Containers

 

 

New York City finds itself besieged by a combined population of 3 million rats and feral cats. However, hope emerges as the city discovers that employing trash containers can be a game-changer in the fight against rats and ensuring cleaner streets.

 New York, the city that never sleeps, shines brightly from a distance, but as you stroll its bustling streets, you will  encounter a different reality. Imagine navigating your way through the city's sidewalks, where smelly rubbish piles create what almost look like trash-fjords, with towering buildings on one side and stacks of black bin-bags on the other. It is a unique and somewhat challenging urban landscape. To avoid stepping into the murky garbage juice that occasionally escapes from these bags, seasoned New Yorkers have perfected the art of lifting their feet with practiced grace. But even the toughest city dwellers can't help but jump when they come across the audacious rats that fearlessly feast on this discarded buffet. For generations, New York embraced this reality, almost considering it a quirky part of city life. However, a major transformation is now underway as the city embarks on an ambitious "containerization program" designed to change this unsightly scene. The once-ubiquitous black bin-bag piles are gradually being replaced by a new addition to the cityscape: secure bins.

This initiative represents a fresh start for New York's sanitation system, offering hope for cleaner streets and a more pleasant urban experience. On October 11th, Mayor Eric Adams of New York City, alongside Jessica Tisch, the city's sanitation commissioner, unveiled an ambitious plan set to transform the way the city deals with its waste. Starting in the spring of 2024, residential buildings with nine or fewer units will be required to place all of their trash in secure containers. This sweeping initiative will encompass a staggering 765,000 buildings, representing a remarkable 95% of the city's residential properties. It comes as a follow-up to similar measures recently implemented for commercial waste, which amounts to approximately 20 million pounds (9 million kg) each day. Moreover, container rules for the city's 40,000 food-related businesses, including restaurants, grocers, and bodegas, were already set in motion over the summer. In total, this comprehensive effort is projected to channel 70% of the city's waste into these secure containers.

The concept of containerization may be a new chapter in New York City's waste management, but it is a long-established norm for cities like Barcelona, Milan, and Paris. In other parts of the world, particularly in South Korea and the Netherlands, submerged container systems are employed, an option that is largely unattainable in New York due to the labyrinthine network of infrastructure below its pavements, consisting of sewage pipes, gas lines, power cables, fiber optics, and the sprawling subway system. As Commissioner Tisch candidly states, New York is essentially playing catch-up with the rest of the globe when it comes to modernizing its waste management practices. The city won't be pioneering the concept of containerizing trash; instead, it finds itself among the last major urban centers to embrace this transformation. Nonetheless, this endeavor represents a significant leap forward in ensuring cleaner and more sustainable urban living for millions of New Yorkers while aligning the city with global standards of waste management.

Trash Talk: Container Comedy

The adoption of containerization appears to be both a groundbreaking shift and a return to historical practices. Metal containers, reminiscent of the dwelling of Oscar the Grouch from Sesame Street, have been utilized since the 1930s to combat rat infestations and maintain cleanliness on the city's streets. However, their use dwindled after a labor strike in 1968 led to a nine-day period of uncollected trash, resulting in a putrid mess that prompted the city to distribute plastic bags for handling the overflow. These bags soon became an integral part of the city's waste management system.

Interestingly, the plastic bags inadvertently contributed to the proliferation of the city's rat population. Mayor Eric Adams, a former police captain who vowed to tackle both crime and the rat issue, unequivocally declared rats as Public Enemy No. 1. This wasn't just rhetoric; the Sanitation Department drew inspiration from the Police Department's transformation three decades ago when policing shifted from a reactive to a proactive approach, relying on crime statistics to identify problem areas—a program known as CompStat, involving weekly crime-control strategy meetings among NYPD commanders.

Taking a page from this playbook, Ms. Jessica Tisch, with 12 years of experience in the Police Department, launched TrashDash in May, inspired by CompStat. This innovative approach involves sanitation leaders convening weekly to develop strategies based on trends observed in waste-related data from 311 calls, a municipal customer service platform. For instance, if there is a surge in reports of missed collections, they investigate common factors in these complaints. Simultaneously, the department has ramped up enforcement of existing rules, along with efforts to clean highways, enforce street vendor regulations, and implement citywide compost collection.

Ms. Tisch's administration firmly rejects the status quo and has restructured operations to prioritize early trash collection in high-density areas. The results indicate that the rats may be retreating, although vigilance is crucial. This past summer witnessed a 20% reduction citywide in rat-related complaints to 311, with "rat-mitigation zones" experiencing a remarkable 45% decrease. To test the waters, a pilot containerization program was recently launched in Hamilton Heights, a neighborhood in Manhattan's West Harlem known for a high volume of rat complaints. Rodent-resistant containers were placed on the streets for residents, and garbage collection was augmented to six days a week in August. Even local schools have adopted the use of containers.

Although the majority of residents in the city back these initiatives, securing complete agreement within the urban landscape of New York remains a formidable task. A spokesperson for the New York Hospitality Alliance, which advocates on behalf of restaurants and bars, underscores the challenge of dealing with the limited indoor space available for waste bins. Meanwhile, the placement of containers outdoors raises concerns as it encroaches upon valuable sidewalk dining areas. Furthermore, an expert from the Centre for Zero Waste Design expresses worries that the public's sentiment toward containerization could take a negative turn if the pilot program encounters difficulties in execution or if it becomes excessively costly. This serves as a reminder that even the most ingenious solutions must successfully navigate the distinctive intricacies of life in New York City.

Sanitation is one of the few aspects firmly under municipal control, setting it apart from the MTA, which is responsible for running the city's subway system. According to Justin Wood of New York Lawyers for the Public Interest, this distinction affords the city a substantial degree of authority over its sanitation operations. This unique jurisdiction highlights the significance of efficient sanitation services in maintaining the city's well-being and overall functioning. Ms. Tisch, the head of the sanitation agency, fully comprehends the weight of her agency's responsibilities. She acknowledges that even a single day of neglect in their duties can have widespread repercussions, becoming immediately apparent to all residents. Should this lapse in service extend to two or three days, it has the potential to escalate into a full-blown public-health crisis. With determination and successful execution of her objectives, Ms. Tisch aims to ensure that New Yorkers will no longer endure the unpleasant stench of trash baking in the sweltering summer heat, and she intends to put an end to the all-night, all-you-can-eat rat buffet that has plagued the city.

 

 

Notes

 

Calvan, B. C. (2023, February 15). NYC Mayor Eric Adams Gets Split Decision in Battle Against Rats. Retrieved from NBC New York: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-mayor-eric-adams-gets-split-decision-in-battle-against-rats/4104971/

Childs, J. E., McLafferty, S. L., Sadek, R., Miller, G. L., Khan, A. S., DuPree, E. R., . . . Glass , G. E. (1998). Epidemiology of Rodent Bites and Prediction of Rat Infestation in New York City. American Journal of Epidemiology, 148(1), 78–87.

Chronopoulos, T. (2014). The Lindsay Administration and the Sanitation Crisis of New York City, 1966–1973. Journal of Urban History, 40(6), 1138-1154.

New York City Government. (2023, October 11). Mayor Adams, DSNY Commissioner Tisch Open New Front In War On Rats, Unveil Strategy To Containerize Trash At Nearly All Residential Buildings In NYC. Retrieved from https://www.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/761-23/mayor-adams-dsny-commissioner-tisch-open-new-front-war-rats-strategy-containerize#/0

The Economist. (2023, October 12). Trash Talk: New York City Discovers a Revolutionary Technology - The Bin. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/10/12/new-york-city-discovers-a-revolutionary-technology-the-bin

 

 

The Unpredictable Road: China's Economic Troubles Amidst the COVID-19 Fallout

 

China's economic prosperity seemed unstoppable, but now it is like a kite without a string, drifting aimlessly. As China seeks to close the gap further with the United States, it faces the challenge that centralized economies excel at emulation but struggle with innovation. This presents a formidable obstacle as it seeks to maintain its growth trajectory.

Since its reintegration into the global economy in 1978, China's economic journey has been nothing short of remarkable. A triumphant narrative of farm reform, rapid industrialization, and a significant increase in per capita income unfolded, contributing to the upliftment of nearly 800 million people from the depths of extreme poverty. The Chinese economy, which produced merely a fraction of what the United States did in 1980, has since grown to reach approximately three-quarters of the American economic scale. This exceptional growth was primarily underpinned by an export-driven economic model and a pragmatic approach to economic policy that served as a beacon of success for developing nations worldwide.

However, the landscape took an unexpected turn when the Chinese government abandoned its "zero COVID-19" policy at the close of 2022. Rather than experiencing a swift resurgence, China's economy seemed to veer off course, encountering a series of obstacles and challenges. Observers, economists, and policymakers worldwide found themselves asking the crucial question: Whatever has gone wrong? This abrupt deviation from their previous strategy left China grappling with unforeseen economic disruptions and uncertainties, prompting concerns about the nation's ability to balance public health with economic stability. In the post-pandemic era, China's economic trajectory has become a matter of global interest and concern, given its prominent role in the world economy.

The latest economic data from China paints a worrisome picture. In the second quarter, the economy expanded at an annualized rate of just 3.2%, a figure that stands in stark contrast to the potentially robust growth rate of nearly 6% in the United States, as indicated by available published evidence. This disappointing growth performance is accompanied by a cascade of other concerning indicators. House prices have experienced a decline, sending shockwaves through the property market, particularly affecting property developers who often sell homes before construction. This downturn has, in turn, deterred potential homebuyers. Furthermore, consumer spending, business investments, and exports have all fallen short of expectations, casting a shadow over China's economic outlook. In a global landscape where many countries are grappling with the challenge of high inflation, China faces the unique problem of deflation, with consumer prices registering a decline in the year up to July. Some analysts have even raised the specter of China falling into a deflationary trap reminiscent of Japan's struggles in the 1990s.

However, characterizing China's predicament solely as a case of "Japanification" may be an understatement of the underlying issues. The situation is potentially more dire in China, primarily due to the disparity in living standards. While Japan's living standards reached approximately 60% of America's by 1990, China's currently lag far behind, standing at less than 20% of U.S. living standards. Unlike Japan, China is grappling with deeper challenges that extend beyond weak demand and a heavy debt burden. Many of these challenges stem from fundamental failures in its economic policymaking, which appear to be worsening as President Xi Jinping centralizes power. This shift in governance dynamics adds another layer of complexity to China's economic woes, making the path to recovery even more uncertain.

Just over a decade ago, China's economic experts were celebrated as masters of their craft, orchestrating an astonishing economic transformation that captured the world's attention. They not only oversaw China's meteoric rise as an economic juggernaut but also earned widespread praise for their pivotal role in stabilizing the global economy during the chaotic period of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. In many ways, China was viewed as the knight in shining armor that saved the world's economy from potential collapse. Throughout the 2010s, whenever China's economy faced turbulent waters, these officials defied skeptics by implementing measures such as loosening credit, embarking on ambitious infrastructure projects, or reviving the property market.

Yet, this resilience came at a cost. With each economic challenge, both public and private debts continued to mount, sparking concerns about the sustainability of the housing boom and the necessity of the colossal infrastructure endeavors. Today, Chinese policymakers find themselves caught in a perplexing predicament. They are wary of furthering projects that might become white elephants or inflating the property bubble to unsustainable levels. Simultaneously, they are hemmed in by limitations on pursuing more desirable forms of economic stimulus, such as increasing pension spending or providing financial assistance to low-income households. These limitations stem from President Xi Jinping's reluctance to embrace extensive social welfare programs and the government's determination to uphold an official deficit capped at 3% of GDP.

Consequently, the response to the current economic slowdown has been rather lukewarm. Policymakers are hesitant to make substantial interest rate cuts, and their recent actions, like the modest 0.1 percentage point cut in the one-year lending rate in August, have left investors underwhelmed. This lackluster response to economic challenges is just one in a series of policy missteps. China's assertive foreign policy stance and its mercantilist industrial policies have heightened economic tensions with the United States. On the domestic front, the government has grappled with addressing speculative behavior in the housing market and a system in which property developers are considered too big to fail due to their substantial obligations. Additionally, regulatory crackdowns on consumer technology firms perceived as unruly and monopolistic have added to market uncertainties. The pandemic response, marked by lockdowns but insufficient vaccination efforts for a controlled exit, further underscored governance challenges.

These mistakes may be rooted in a shift in priorities for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It appears that short-term economic growth is no longer the paramount goal. President Xi Jinping seems to believe that China must ready itself for enduring economic and, potentially, military conflicts with the United States. Consequently, he now emphasizes China's pursuit of national greatness, security, and resilience. This shift implies a readiness to make sacrifices in the pursuit of these long-term objectives, even if it means sacrificing short-term growth. When emphasizing growth, it should be of a superior quality that aligns with China's long-term vision for the future.

Xi's Impact

In the eyes of Mr. Xi, the paramount leader of China, the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) decisions should align with a vision of strength and stability. However, even when measured against his own criteria, it is evident that the recent course of actions taken by the CCP has been flawed and fraught with consequences. One significant setback was the abandonment of the "zero Covid-19" policy, which not only eroded Mr. Xi's prestige but also introduced uncertainty into a nation that prided itself on meticulous control. The abrupt shift in this policy not only created confusion but also undermined the government's image as a resolute authority.

Not only that, the aggressive stance taken against technology firms has sent shockwaves through China's entrepreneurial landscape. Rather than nurturing innovation, these actions have instilled fear and caution among entrepreneurs, stifling creativity and economic dynamism. Another worrisome prospect on the horizon is the potential for persistent deflation due to the authorities' reluctance to stimulate consumption. This could result in the real value of debts skyrocketing, casting a heavy shadow over the economy and limiting opportunities for growth.

Most critically, the CCP's ability to maintain its grip on power and to stand toe-to-toe with the United States depends on its capacity to raise living standards for its people. These recent policy missteps have put that objective in jeopardy, as they risk exacerbating social disparities and undermining the party's popularity among citizens.

Regrettably, these mounting policy failures seem less a calculated focus on national security and more a testament to a pattern of ill-advised decision-making. They coincide with Mr. Xi's consolidation of power and his replacement of technocrats with loyalists in top leadership positions. Where China once allowed room for debate about its economic strategies, it has now coerced analysts into presenting an artificially optimistic view. In recent times, the government has even halted the publication of less flattering data, concealing the extent of youth unemployment and consumer confidence issues. While China still possesses a reservoir of talent within its government, the expectation of rational analysis or innovative thinking is increasingly naive, given that loyalty is prioritized above all else.

This shift is underscored by an ideological blend that distrusts wealthy entrepreneurs on the left, while harboring a right-wing reluctance to support the economically disadvantaged. This fusion leaves little room for balanced policymaking.

The root of China's problems lies at the very top, and they are likely to persist, or even worsen, as policymakers grapple with a slew of mounting challenges. China's population is also rapidly aging, America is growing increasingly hostile, and it is attempting to strangle strategically significant sectors of China's economy, such as chipmaking. As China seeks to close the gap further with the United States, it faces the challenge that centralized economies excel at emulation but struggle with innovation. This presents a formidable obstacle as it seeks to maintain its growth trajectory.

In retrospect, the optimistic predictions by liberals about China's path have often fallen short. While in the 2000s, Western leaders believed that increased trade, markets, and growth would naturally lead to democracy and individual liberty, the current situation paints a different picture. China is now testing the reverse relationship, with evidence mounting that greater autocracy is detrimental to the economy.

After four decades of rapid growth, China appears to be entering a phase of disillusionment, where the realities of autocratic rule are casting a shadow over its economic prospects. The path ahead is fraught with challenges and uncertainties, and the world watches with keen interest as China navigates this critical juncture.

 

 

 

Notes

Burgh, H. d. (2017). The Re-imagining of China under President Xi Jinping. Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/q3x85/the-re-imagining-of-china-under-president-xi-jinping

Chaulia, S. (n.d.). How Xi Jinping has dragged China backwards in political, economic liberalisation. Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/how-has-president-xi-jinping-dragged-china-backwards-in-political-economic-liberalisation/articleshow/61164173.cms

China Debt Clock: What Is The National Debt of China? (n.d.). Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/china

Davis, D. (2003). China Joins the Global Economy - Part One. Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/china-joins-global-economy-part-two

Economy, E. (1999). China Joins the World: Progress and Prospects. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 10 21, 2023

Guoxian, Z. (2001). Measures to Counteract the Impact of China's Entry into the WTO on Trade Union Work. Chinese Economy, 34(5), 54-70. Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from https://tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.2753/ces1097-1475340554

Nakaso, H. (2001). The financial crisis in Japan during the 1990s: how the Bank of Japan responded and the lessons learnt. Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from https://bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap06.htm

Prime, P. B. (2002). China Joins the WTO: How, Why, and What Now? the Overall, Long-Term, Effects Should Be Positive, but Don't Expect Too Much, Too Soon. Business Economics, 37(2), 26. Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from https://questia.com/library/journal/1g1-86851408/china-joins-the-wto-how-why-and-what-now-the-overall

Rozelle, S., & Rosegrant, M. W. (1997). China's past, present, and future food economy: can China continue to meet the challenges? Food Policy, 22(3), 191-200. Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/s0306919297000249

Sahoo, P., Dash, R. K., & Nataraj, G. (2012). China's Growth Story: The Role of Physical and Social Infrastructure. Journal of economic development, 37(1), 53-75. Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from http://jed.or.kr/full-text/37-1/3.pdf

The Economist. (2023, August 24). Xi’s Broken Model: Why China’s Economy Won’t Be Fixed. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/24/why-chinas-economy-wont-be-fixed

The World Bank China Overview. (n.d.). Retrieved 10 21, 2023, from The World Bank: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview

 

 

 

A House Divided: Republicans in America Wrestle with Speaker Selection.

 

 Amidst the chaos of their leadership struggle, the Republicans are trapped in a cycle of bloodletting, causing wounds that may take a long time to mend.

The view of the world from the White House end of Pennsylvania Avenue presents a series of pressing international and domestic challenges. Firstly, there is the concerning situation where Hamas has initiated attacks on Israel, a key ally of the United States. Simultaneously, Europe is witnessing its largest conflict since World War II, with Ukraine urgently seeking American support to resist Vladimir Putin's territorial ambitions. Furthermore, Taiwan is in need of assistance amidst rising geopolitical tensions. On the home front, the looming threat of a government shutdown adds to the sense of urgency and impasse in Congress.

Regrettably, amidst these critical issues, the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue appears to be characterized by political discord and a lack of effective action. House Republicans have been embroiled in a two-week dispute over the selection of the Speaker, resulting in a legislative gridlock that exacerbates the sense of paralysis in Congress.

However, there remains a glimmer of hope for a potential reprieve. If political disagreements can be set aside, there is a chance for a more functional Congress, even if only temporarily. This could open the door to approving fresh packages of military support for Israel, Ukraine, and potentially Taiwan. Additionally, there is a possibility that the government may avoid a shutdown, providing some relief amid these complex and interrelated challenges.

To recap, the political drama that unfolded on October 3rd had far-reaching implications and sent shockwaves through the Republican Party. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was unceremoniously removed from his position by a small faction of Republicans, led by the flamboyant and often polarizing figure, Matt Gaetz. Gaetz's motivations appeared to be driven by personal animosity, raising concerns about the party's internal unity and decision-making process. With McCarthy's abrupt departure, the stage was set for a leadership struggle within the Republican caucus.

In the wake of McCarthy's ousting, Steve Scalise, a respected and amicable congressman from Louisiana, stepped forward as a contender for the Speaker position. Scalise had dedicated a decade to climbing the Republican leadership ladder, making him a natural choice to fill the leadership void. However, his candidacy was met with rejection by the House Republican caucus, underscoring the deep-seated divisions within the party and the challenges of finding a unifying figure.

The plot thickened when Jim Jordan, a congressman from Ohio known for his unwavering support of Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his inclination to advocate for government shutdowns, threw his hat into the ring. This move seemed akin to entrusting the leadership of a team to its most uncooperative member in the hope of minimizing disruptions. Yet, Jordan, too, faced rejection, leaving the House Republicans in a state of chaos and uncertainty. With their slender majority, the party appeared to be caught in a cycle of internal strife that was increasingly difficult to quell. As the Republican Party grapples with these leadership challenges, a critical question arises: Can they find a unifying leader capable of steering the party toward cohesion and effective governance, or will these divisions continue to paralyze their ability to lead and govern effectively? The answer to this question will shape the future of the Republican Party and have profound implications for American politics as a whole.

Bow-Tie Diplomacy

Amidst this ongoing dereliction of duty, the House has found itself in the hands of an unlikely figure, Patrick McHenry from North Carolina, who has taken on the role of temporary speaker. Mr. McHenry, previously obscure on the national stage, seems to have missed the memo regarding his party's responsibility as the tribunes of working-class Americans. Notably, he has become known for his unwavering commitment to bow-tie fashion, a quirk that has made him stand out in political circles. Ironically, this unassuming gentleman may now, due to a bizarre twist of events, hold the potential to reshape the destinies of multiple countries.

The prevailing consensus among both parties is the strong desire to support Israel, along with substantial backing in the House for the continued arming of Ukraine and the funding of the American government. However, a long-standing practice among House Republicans, who hold the majority, has been to block bills from reaching a vote unless they secure the support of a majority of Republican lawmakers. Consequently, issues of paramount importance have been left festering in a state of inaction.

One conceivable, and indeed credible, solution to this conundrum is the bundling of support for Israel with backing for Ukraine and Taiwan, alongside increased funding for border security and a bill for government funding through the following year. While the principles of sound governance would typically advocate for each matter to be considered individually, the art of dealmaking within the House often points to the wisdom of packaging them together. Given the requisite authority, Mr. McHenry could deftly navigate such a comprehensive bill with the support of Democrats. Importantly, since he does not officially hold the position of speaker, he is less susceptible to removal by members of his own party, as was the case with Mr. McCarthy.

In the current political climate, it falls upon a bipartisan coalition, comprising both Republicans and Democrats, to grant Mr. McHenry the essential authority, even if only temporarily, enabling him to usher these critical bills onto the House floor. With a simple majority vote, this can be achieved, offering a unique window of opportunity for pragmatic Republicans who have become exasperated with the influence wielded by their party's less cooperative members. Breaking the legislative gridlock has never been more vital. The urgency of the situation is glaringly apparent—nations like Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine are in dire need of American support, while America itself is in desperate need of a functional Congress capable of addressing the pressing issues at hand.

The pivotal question now revolves around the readiness and determination of lawmakers to seize this critical moment and act promptly in fulfillment of their responsibilities. Will they rise above political divides and partisan gridlock to serve the greater good and ensure that essential legislation is enacted? The answer to this question holds profound implications for the international stage and the nation's ability to address its most pressing challenges. The time for action is now, and the fate of these vital matters rests in the hands of those entrusted with the duty of governance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

President Biden's Cancelled Meeting with Arab Leaders: An Indicator of Ingratitude?

 

The canceled meeting with President Biden underscored a possible rift in diplomatic ties, raising questions about the depth of gratitude among these Arab leaders for the substantial financial assistance received from the U.S

President Biden's meeting with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli War Cabinet last Wednesday was a significant demonstration of U.S. support and solidarity with Israel during a critical moment in the ongoing conflict. The meeting took place against the backdrop of a ground offensive by Israel against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Prior to this, Hamas militants had launched an invasion of Israel, breaching communities near the Gaza Strip. This invasion resulted in the tragic loss of numerous civilian lives, including hundreds of innocent men, women, and children. Additionally, Hamas took hostages, including young children and elderly individuals, creating a dire humanitarian crisis. To further escalate the situation, Hamas fired a barrage of thousands of rockets and missiles at cities across Israel, posing a severe threat to the safety and security of Israeli civilians.

The meeting between President Biden and Israeli leadership was primarily convened to reaffirm the steadfast support of the United States for Israel's inherent right to self-defense and the protection of its citizens in the midst of the ongoing attacks. The discussions likely encompassed considerations related to providing military assistance to Israel, as well as the formulation of strategic and diplomatic initiatives aimed at seeking a resolution to the conflict. A paramount focus of these deliberations was placed on safeguarding the lives of civilians on both sides of the conflict.

President Biden's itinerary originally included a visit to Jordan as part of his diplomatic tour to engage with key Arab leaders. This visit was set to encompass meetings with prominent figures, including Jordan's King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. However, it is noteworthy that this scheduled meeting did not take place, and it was ultimately canceled. This development has raised questions and prompted discussions about the relationships between these Arab leaders and the United States.

From a broader perspective, the absence of these Arab leaders in the planned meeting with President Biden may raise questions about the strength of their diplomatic ties and their perceived level of gratitude towards the United States. This consideration stems partly from the significant financial assistance that the United States has extended to countries like Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority.

Take, for instance, the Palestinian Authority. Since April 2021, the United States has allocated over half a billion dollars in support for the Palestinians. This includes substantial contributions of more than $417 million for humanitarian aid through UNRWA, $75 million in assistance via USAID, and $20.5 million designated for COVID-19 and Gaza recovery efforts. Furthermore, the U.S. government has plans to provide an additional $75 million in economic aid to the Palestinian people this year. Notably, an additional $45 million has been allocated to support programs aimed at bolstering the security sector and facilitating critical improvements in the rule of law.

Egypt, too, has a long-standing history of receiving substantial financial aid from the United States. This support amounts to a staggering $1.3 billion annually, making it one of the largest recipients of U.S. foreign aid. Since 1946, the United States has contributed more than USD 85 billion in bilateral foreign assistance to Egypt, with significant increases in military and economic aid, particularly after 1979.

While financial assistance is a crucial facet of international relations, the complexities within diplomatic relationships are multifaceted. The non-attendance of these Arab leaders in the scheduled meeting should be considered within this intricate context, acknowledging that diplomatic interactions are influenced by various factors beyond financial support alone.

The Lowdown

The absence of these Arab leaders in the scheduled meeting with President Biden also raises concerns about the growing influence of Iran, as well as organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, in the Middle East. These groups not only seek to expand Iran's dominance in the region but are also perceived to be advancing the interests of other global players like Russia and China. Through their proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran is gradually working to diminish American influence in the Middle East while simultaneously targeting U.S. allies in the region, such as Israel. Following their attacks on Israel, Hamas publicly expressed gratitude to Iran, indicating a significant level of support. This situation raises concerns that similar developments could affect other U.S. allies in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Jordan, in the near future.

Not only that, the failure to arrange the meeting with these Arab leaders can also be seen as a reflection of perceived weaknesses within the Biden administration. Arab leaders may harbor concerns about their own populations' sentiments and believe that the United States may not be able to protect them from potential domestic challenges. Obviously, these leaders might be grappling with internal vulnerabilities, making them cautious about their international engagements. Furthermore, in the aftermath of Hamas's recent attacks on Israel, the Ministry of Health in Gaza has been viewed as propagating anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric, potentially contributing to the reluctance of Arab leaders to meet with President Biden. In this context, the responsibility for the meeting not taking place might be attributed to the Arab leaders' apprehensions and challenges.

In line with that development, Israel faces a pressing need to act swiftly if it aims to make significant progress in dismantling the terrorist group Hamas. Hezbollah, on the Iranian front, operates as an entity closely aligned with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), effectively making it a proxy of Iran. Hezbollah is armed with a substantial arsenal of rockets, numbering up to 150,000, which surpasses the size, lethality, and range of the rockets used by Hamas in Gaza. Israel's ground offensive presents a limited window of opportunity, estimated to be around two weeks, to target the Hamas leadership, assets within Gaza, and the various terrorist groups supporting Hamas across the Middle East.

President Biden's efforts in the region are geared towards preventing the escalation of the conflict, primarily due to the potential ramifications of Iran's involvement. Should Iran become directly engaged, there is a risk of disruptions in global oil markets, potentially causing crude oil prices to surge to levels as high as $150 per barrel or even more. Such a spike in oil prices could contribute to inflationary pressures in the United States and negatively impact the country's gross domestic product (GDP). These economic repercussions are a concern, particularly in the context of an upcoming Presidential election year, where stability and economic conditions play a significant role in the political landscape.

 

 

 

  

 

Notes

 

Al Lawati, A., McSweeney, E., & Ebrahim, N. (2023, October 16). Israel is at War With Hamas. Here’s What to Know. Retrieved from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-war-explained-week-2-mime-intl/index.html

American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt. (2023). Egypt-U.S. Business Relations. Retrieved from https://www.amcham.org.eg/information-resources/trade-resources/egypt-us-relations/us-foreign-assistance-to-egypt

Hashemi, A. (2023, July 13). Iran Just Joined a Pact With Moscow and Beijing — Here’s What It Means for the US. Retrieved from The Hill: https://thehill.com/opinion/4094000-iran-just-joined-a-pact-with-moscow-and-beijing-heres-what-it-means-for-the-us/

Institute for the Study of War. (2023, October 18). Israel - Hamas War (Iran Updates) . Retrieved from https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/israel%E2%80%93hamas-war-iran-updates

Pamuk, H. (2023, September 14). US Allows Much of Egypt Military Aid Despite Human Rights Concerns. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-allows-much-egypt-military-aid-despite-human-rights-concerns-2023-09-14/

US Department of State. (2022, March 26). U.S. Support for the Palestinian People . Retrieved from Fact Sheet: https://www.state.gov/u-s-support-for-the-palestinian-people/

Watson, K. (2023, October 17). Biden's Jordan Stop to Meet With Arab Leaders Canceled. Retrieved from CBS News: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-jordan-meeting-arab-leaders-cancelled/

 

 

Single Mothers in China: Shining a Light on Unjust Stigma

 

Chinese influencers are shattering the shackles of prejudice, weaving a fresh narrative for single mothers in China. Much like the rebirth of phoenixes from ashes, these influencers are boldly redefining family dynamics and dismantling long-standing stereotypes surrounding single mothers within the nation.

China's society is undergoing rapid change, particularly in its attitude towards single mothers. At the age of 28, Wei Zhang (whose name has been altered to protect her privacy) made a bold decision that challenged deeply entrenched societal norms. Her ambition was to embrace motherhood without the constraints of marriage. To bring this dream to life, she embarked on a remarkable journey that took her to both the United States and Russia, where she underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF) procedures, ultimately giving birth to two beautiful daughters. Today, Ms. Zhang has amassed an impressive following of over 7.3 million on Douyin, the Chinese equivalent of TikTok. Her platform offers a window into her life as a single mother, occasionally featuring promotions for her skincare company. Ms. Zhang's distinctive appearance, characterized by her choice of menswear attire and a crew cut, symbolizes a captivating blend of masculinity and femininity, earning her admiration from a diverse and captivated audience.

However, beyond the allure of her affluence and her endearing children, Ms. Zhang's admirers are drawn to her passionate advocacy for single parenthood. In a society where traditional family structures have long held sway as the prevailing norm, Wei Zhang's bold choice to embrace motherhood independently stands in stark contrast to conventional Chinese cultural values. Remarkably, she encountered a distinct absence of the stigma that once burdened individuals who undertook similar paths in Chinese society's historical context. Her Douyin channel is just one among many platforms where single mothers exchange insights on reproductive technologies like IVF and disseminate messages promoting female independence. Through these efforts, they collectively challenge conventional notions of family planning and “empower” China’s  women to take control of their reproductive destinies.

As Ms. Zhang continues to influence and empower her growing audience, her personal journey mirrors a broader societal shift occurring in China. An increasing number of women are reshaping their roles and advocating for greater autonomy in family-planning decisions. By exchanging their stories and pooling their collective experiences, these women are fostering a burgeoning sense of empowerment among their fellow women. Their narratives vividly demonstrate that unconventional routes to motherhood are gaining as much prominence as traditional ones, particularly in places like China, where such choices were initially met with societal disapproval. Within this evolving narrative, Ms. Zhang stands as a symbol, embodying the qualities of a powerful man, the tenderness of a woman, the responsibilities of a father, and the greatness of a mother, all encapsulated within the determination of a single individual.

This shift toward recognizing children born out of wedlock in China's government registry is causing some unease in a society where traditional households continue to hold sway, and single mothers often face unequal access to government benefits. The prevailing cultural norms have historically placed a strong emphasis on family values and traditional marriage, leading to societal stigmatization of unwed or unmarried mothers. These women have frequently encountered barriers when attempting to officially register their children and secure the rights and benefits enjoyed by children born within wedlock.

However, the changing demographic landscape in China has compelled the state to adopt a more flexible approach. With concerns about a declining population and an aging workforce, the government has begun to loosen its stance. Since 2022, four provinces  in China have officially allowed the registration of children born out of wedlock, and others are following suit, albeit without significant public promotion to avoid conflicting with established social values. As a result, many unwed or unmarried Chinese women now anticipate less trouble when registering their children in the country's official registry, signaling a gradual evolution in societal acceptance of non-traditional family structures.

Shuffling the Deck

Ms. Hui, a 33-year-old residing in Shanghai, finds herself in a unique position as a single, pregnant woman in her neighborhood. Approximately a year ago, she reached a pivotal decision that she did not have sufficient time to both find a life partner and embark on motherhood while still in the prime of her youth. Consequently, she made the bold choice to prioritize motherhood and decided to have a child first. However, navigating this journey in China comes with its own set of challenges, as single women are currently not permitted to utilize sperm banks or freeze their eggs. In response to these challenges, Ms. Hui made the decision to approach a friend, with no plans for marriage, and they engaged in an intimate relationship that resulted in her pregnancy. Throughout her journey, she has received support from her mother and peers, although her conservative father required some persuasion. Ms. Hui's mother consistently emphasized that the times have evolved, and her daughter's pregnancy was a deliberate choice rather than an accidental circumstance. In the eyes of her loved ones, Ms. Hui is celebrated as a remarkable and courageous mother-to-be, defying traditional norms and expectations.

Ms. Hui's unconventional approach to motherhood places her within a relatively small minority in China. Published evidence suggests that the majority of single mothers in the country are either divorced or widowed, often belonging to the working-class or facing economic hardships. Messages promoting economic self-sufficiency do resonate with these women, but they also acknowledge disparities with some of the influencers on Douyin.

What is becoming increasingly evident in China is the emergence of a subset of women who are uninterested in traditional marriage. Many single women in the country argue that the demands of working, cleaning, cooking, and raising their children consume the majority of their energy. In this context, carving out time for pursuing a romantic relationship can seem like an additional burden. Indeed, Chinese society is undergoing a transformation, with women challenging and dismantling taboos that were prevalent just a decade ago. This evolution reflects a broader shift towards individual empowerment and the recognition that there are diverse and valid paths to fulfillment and motherhood outside of traditional marital norms.

 

 

 

Notes

 

McDonell, S. (2023, July 29). Why It's Getting Easier to Be a Single Mum in China. Retrieved from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66064589

The Economist. (2023, July 6). Glorious Mamas: Challenging the Stigma Associated With Single Mothers in China. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/china/2023/07/06/challenging-the-stigma-associated-with-single-mothers-in-china

Wang, V. (2021, May 31). For China’s Single Mothers, a Road to Recognition Paved With False Starts. Retrieved from The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-mothers-children-birth.html

 

 

When David Confronts Goliath: Ukraine's Navyless Triumph Against Russia

Ukraine has managed to outmaneuver Russia's navy without ever launching a ship. It is like a game of chess where Ukraine has checkmated the Russian navy without any pieces on the board.

In the ongoing Ukrainian conflict, much of the spotlight tends to be on the success or failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive on land. However, periodic events in the Black Sea region serve as a stark reminder of the strategic importance that this body of water holds in the broader conflict. One such incident occurred on 13th September when Russia's repair yard for the Black Sea Fleet, Sergo Ordzhonkidze, faced a devastating attack. Ten Storm Shadow cruise missiles, fired from five Sukhoi Su-24 Fencers, targeted the facility. Although some of these missiles were intercepted, three found their mark, severely damaging the warship Minsk and the submarine Rostov-on-Don. In response, the Russian forces retreated to their backup command post at Verkhnesadovoe, which unfortunately fell victim to another attack on 20th September. It's worth noting that Storm Shadow, also known as the SCALP cruise missile, is a product of French technology with a British-supplied warhead, and it has been utilized by the air forces of both nations, as well as supplied to Ukraine.

One plausible explanation for how some of these missiles successfully penetrated the Russian defenses is attributed to earlier actions by Ukrainian special forces and the deployment of Neptune missiles, which had managed to neutralize Russian S-400 air defense radars several weeks prior. These actions exemplify classic multi-domain shaping operations executed with precision. Ukraine's capability to coordinate across various domains became apparent early on in the conflict, notably with the sinking of the missile cruiser Moskva. In this incident, a drone operated in close proximity to the ship, distracting its crew and leading them to overlook the approaching Neptune missiles from a different direction. These strategic maneuvers underscore Ukraine's resourcefulness and adaptability in the face of a complex and evolving conflict, emphasizing the vital role the Black Sea plays in the ongoing struggle for regional control and stability.

The attack on the drydock on 13th September, while not as iconic as the sinking of the Moskva, carries profound implications for the overall war effort in several strategic and tactical dimensions. Five key factors underscore its significance. First and foremost, the strike resulted in the removal of a landing craft/logistics vessel and a highly capable Kalibr-armed submarine from the Russian order of battle, effectively rendering them unavailable for the foreseeable future. As the list of losses for the Black Sea Fleet continues to grow, Russia faces a diminishing naval force in a strategically vital region.

Second, the incapacitation of the dry docks poses a significant logistical challenge. Dry docks are essential facilities for maintaining and repairing naval vessels, and their limited availability is a concern even in times of peace. With two fewer operational dry docks, Russia's maritime capabilities are further constrained, hampering their ability to address critical maintenance needs.

The third factor revolves around the feasibility of repairing the damaged vessels. While Russia has declared its intention to repair them, experts raise doubts, particularly concerning the damaged submarine. The extent of damage to the pressure hull, caused by the warhead's penetration from the shoulder and exit through the back, suggests catastrophic internal damage. This scenario resembles the injuries sustained by Admiral Lord Nelson, which proved beyond repair. The challenges of salvaging and rehabilitating these vessels pose a daunting task for Russian authorities and may have long-term implications for their naval capabilities in the Black Sea.

When considering the fate of warships, it is important to acknowledge that the notion of "beyond economical repair" often boils down to the political will to repair rather than insurmountable technical challenges or financial constraints. History has shown that wounded pride and national prestige can override fiscal prudence, prompting nations to embark on costly repair efforts. In the case of the damaged Russian submarine, it may necessitate innovative solutions, such as leaving the nameplate in place while effectively constructing a new submarine beneath it. Regardless of the approach, such endeavors will undoubtedly come with a hefty price tag, and the Russian authorities will have to weigh the costs against the desire to maintain their naval capabilities in the Black Sea.

Should the Russians opt not to repair the submarine, their objective will likely still be to reclaim the dry dock. This scenario would entail the challenging task of patching up the damaged vessel, flooding the dry dock, and towing it to another location, none of which are straightforward operations. Each of these tasks would demand additional time, resources, and, perhaps most significantly, result in further public embarrassment, underscoring the complexity of the situation.

Regarding the loss of the Minsk, while it may be deemed less strategically significant than the submarine, it still represents a notable setback. The Minsk served primarily as a logistics asset, yet its sister ship, the Olenegorsky Gornyak, suffered a similar fate on 3rd August in another attack. This underscores the mounting losses faced by the Russian Navy and presents the same dilemma of whether to repair or tow, thereby magnifying the challenges and resource commitments faced by Russian authorities in the Black Sea.

The fourth critical aspect to consider is the continued viability of Sevastopol as a naval base. With the dry docks incapacitated and the alternative headquarters razed to the ground, the question arises as to whether it can still serve its intended purpose. While the answer leans towards a probable "yes," it comes at a steep price, involving the replacement and bolstering of its defenses. Should the Russians decide to abandon Sevastopol in favor of relocating their fleet to Novorossiysk, it would have repercussions on one of the three major supply lines sustaining Russian forces in Crimea, with the other two being the besieged land bridge and the Kerch Strait bridges.

Expanding beyond the confines of Sevastopol, the Crimea region holds almost mythological significance to Russia, with President Putin likening it to Russians' "holy land akin to Jerusalem," despite Russia having only gained control of it in 2014. This analogy, however puzzling, underscores the significance of defending this territory, making it an uncomfortable prospect to continually face challenges and attacks in a region of such symbolic importance.

Furthermore, these events have significant implications for the balance of power in the Black Sea region. Logistically, they create obstacles for the Russian Navy. Concurrent with the Storm Shadow missile attacks on Sevastopol, three Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs) targeted the tanker Yaz and the arms ship Ursa Major. While early reports incorrectly suggested these attacks were part of the broader assault on Sevastopol, they nonetheless reflect Ukraine's determined efforts to regain control of the Black Sea for the purpose of facilitating grain shipments. Although the USV attacks were unsuccessful, they undoubtedly cast a shadow over the prospects of anyone in the Russian Navy eagerly volunteering for duty aboard the Yaz or the Ursa Major in the near future. These developments highlight Ukraine's resolve to utilize the Black Sea for grain shipments, particularly as tensions mount regarding overland grain exports to Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. Moreover, two significant events are currently unfolding: the first grain ship to depart from Odesa since the end of the grain deal with Putin is enroute through the Bosphorus, emphasizing the potential for a decrease in Russia's ability to weaponize hunger if pressure on its maritime forces continues. The second involves President Zelensky's discussions with President Biden, with the potential inclusion of a request for the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) at the forefront of the agenda. This development could be a game-changer and is closely monitored by those in Sevastopol and beyond.

Ultimately, the cumulative impact of these attacks on the morale of the Black Sea Fleet is considerable. Warships are ill at ease when docked in high-threat environments, as it compromises their ability to defend against attacks, essentially rendering them vulnerable. Consequently, they are compelled to set sail, but instead of heading east to safety, the demands of grain shipments and other activities force them to venture westward, closer to potential threats. Given the Russian Navy's historically challenged morale and fighting spirit, the situation could hardly be grimmer.

 

Notes

 

Blank, S. (2023, September 28). Ukraine’s Naval Victories Show a Winning Strategy is Underway . Retrieved from The Hill: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4225615-ukraines-naval-victories-show-a-winning-strategy-is-underway/

Burgess, A. (2023, July 28). Ukraine's Navy is No Match for Russia, But It Has Made Waves in the Black Sea by Using Unconventional Warfare. Retrieved from ABC News: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-29/naval-warfare-black-sea-battle-ukraine-russia-invasion-/102643312

Fisher , M., & Shevchenko, V. (2023, September 22). Ukraine Hits HQ of Russia's Symbolic Black Sea Navy. Retrieved from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66887524

Sharpe, T. (2023, September 21). Ukraine Has Won a Massive Naval Victory Without Having a Navy. Retrieved October 14, 2023, from Yahoo News: https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-won-massive-naval-victory-172303596.html