Replacing Biden could ignite a contentious primary battle within the Democratic Party, destabilizing the unity needed to secure a victory. Historically, vice presidents who ascend to the presidency, such as Gerald Ford (who lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976), have struggled to secure electoral benefits from incumbency.
In the wake of President Joe Biden's lackluster debate performance against former President Donald Trump, there has been an escalating chorus of voices within the Democratic Party urging him to step aside for a new nominee. While potential replacements such as Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and California Governor Gavin Newsom have been mentioned, Vice President Kamala Harris is frequently cited as the most immediate and viable successor. However, a deeper analysis reveals that Harris’s ascension might not secure the Democrats’ chances in the upcoming election, and the party would be wiser to stick with Biden.
Allan
Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University, has developed a
predictive model known as the "Keys to the White House," which has a
strong track record of forecasting presidential election outcomes since 1984.
This model uses 13 true-or-false questions to assess the party currently
holding the White House. If six or more of these keys are false, the incumbent
party is predicted to lose. Lichtman’s model currently suggests that Biden has
secured seven keys for the Democrats, positioning them favorably for the
election.
Lichtman
identifies seven keys that Biden has locked down: incumbency, no significant
primary contest, no recession during the election, a strong long-term economy,
major policy changes, no major scandal directly involving the president, and an
uncharismatic challenger. These factors are crucial for a party to retain
power. If Biden steps aside for Harris, two of these keys—incumbency and the
lack of a significant primary contest—could be jeopardized.
The
incumbency key is a powerful asset in presidential elections. Historically,
incumbent presidents have a higher likelihood of re-election due to their
existing visibility and the institutional advantages of holding office. If
Biden were to step down, the Democrats would lose this crucial advantage.
Lichtman underscores this risk, noting that Harris taking over without the
incumbency key could seriously weaken the Democrats' position.
Replacing
Biden could also ignite a contentious primary battle within the Democratic
Party. Even if Harris were to step into Biden’s shoes, there is no guarantee
that she would avoid a significant primary challenge. The Democratic Party is
diverse, with various factions that might see an open race as an opportunity to
push their preferred candidate. Such a scenario would further destabilize the
party and erode one of the keys that Biden currently secures.
Beyond
the keys model, Harris faces unique challenges that could hinder her
effectiveness as a candidate. Despite being the first female vice president and
the first African American and Asian American vice president, her approval
ratings have consistently lagged behind Biden’s. According to a USA
TODAY/Suffolk University poll in early 2024, Harris’s favorability rating was
10 percentage points lower than Biden’s, suggesting a significant hurdle in
garnering broad-based support.
Looking
back at historical precedents, vice presidents who ascend to the presidency do
not always enjoy the electoral benefits that come with incumbency. For
instance, Gerald Ford, who became president after Nixon’s resignation, lost to
Jimmy Carter in 1976 despite the incumbency advantage. Similarly, while Lyndon
B. Johnson secured a landslide victory in 1964 after Kennedy's assassination,
he faced significant challenges and ultimately decided not to run for
re-election in 1968.
Moreover,
Harris’s political career has been marked by several controversies and
criticisms that could be exploited by opponents. During her tenure as
California’s Attorney General, her record on criminal justice was scrutinized,
and her presidential campaign in 2020 failed to gain substantial traction,
ending before the first primary vote was cast. These factors could be
detrimental in a highly polarized and competitive general election environment.
President
Biden’s administration has made significant strides in various policy areas
that resonate with key voter demographics. The Inflation Reduction Act, the
bipartisan infrastructure bill, and major advancements in COVID-19 vaccination
efforts are notable achievements that could be leveraged in his campaign. Biden
has also managed to steer clear of major scandals, a critical factor in
Lichtman’s model. His administration’s focus on restoring international
alliances and addressing climate change has also received positive feedback
from both domestic and international observers.
In
an era marked by political turbulence and uncertainty, stability is a valued
commodity. Biden represents continuity and a steady hand, qualities that can
appeal to moderate and undecided voters. Harris, while a historic and dynamic
figure, represents a shift that could introduce unpredictability and potential
intra-party conflict. The Democratic Party, aiming to consolidate its gains and
fend off a resurgent Republican Party led by Trump, would benefit from
maintaining the stability that Biden offers.
In
plain terms, while the calls for Biden to step aside are fueled by concerns
over his age and debate performance, the strategic advantages he brings to the
Democratic Party should not be underestimated. Allan Lichtman’s "Keys to
the White House" model highlights the precariousness of replacing an
incumbent president. Kamala Harris, despite her historic achievements and
qualifications, faces significant challenges that could undermine the
Democrats’ chances. The party must prioritize stability and leverage Biden’s
incumbency and policy successes to secure victory in the upcoming election.
Sticking with President Biden is the Democrats' best bet for maintaining
control of the White House and continuing their policy agenda.
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