Critical Exhaustion: How Depleting Soviet Stockpiles are Forcing Russia to Reconsider Its Tactics in Ukraine

 

Intelligence estimates suggest that Russia's stockpile of Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles may reach a critical point of exhaustion by mid-2024, significantly impacting its ability to sustain offensive operations.

For over a year, the world has watched as Russia, leveraging its vast military resources, engaged in an attrition war with Ukraine. With a population five times larger and an extensive stockpile of Soviet-era weaponry, Russia initially seemed poised for a decisive victory. However, the reality on the battlefield is beginning to tell a different story. Russia's much-anticipated offensive in Kharkiv, initiated in May, is faltering, and the strategic gains in other regions, notably the Donbas, have been minimal and costly. As Ukraine continues to stand resilient, the question now shifts from Ukraine's ability to endure to Russia's capacity to maintain its current operational tempo.

The primary issue facing Russia is not manpower. Despite the war's attritional nature, Russia continues to mobilize approximately 25,000 soldiers each month, sustaining a force of around 470,000 on the frontlines. This comes at a rising financial cost, but it remains manageable for the Kremlin. Missile production aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure is also on the rise. However, the critical bottleneck lies in the replacement of heavy weaponry—specifically tanks, armored infantry vehicles, and artillery.

Russia's defense industry is heavily reliant on refurbishing Soviet-era stockpiles. According to intelligence estimates, the first two years of the conflict saw Russia lose approximately 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armored vehicles. Oryx, a Dutch open-source intelligence platform, documented 3,235 Russian tank losses, suggesting the actual figures are significantly higher.

Former Soviet leaders, recognizing the technological superiority of Western military equipment, compensated by producing massive quantities of armored vehicles during the Cold War. Aleksandr Golts, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, notes that before the Soviet Union's dissolution, it possessed more armored vehicles than the rest of the world combined. This historical context is crucial in understanding Russia's current strategy of drawing from these vast, albeit finite, reserves.

Russia's efforts to field new tanks are hampered by several factors. In December 2023, then-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the delivery of 1,530 tanks within the year. However, nearly 85% were refurbished older models, such as the T-72s, T-62s, and even T-55s from the post-World War II era. Only about 175 relatively modern T-90M tanks were deployed to the frontlines. Estimates suggest that annual production of new T-90Ms could be as low as 28, with most being upgrades of older T-90As.

Pavel Luzin, an expert on Russian military capacity at the Washington-based Centre for European Policy Analysis, highlights the significant obstacles in building new tanks or refurbishing old ones. Sanctions have blocked access to crucial components previously imported from Europe, such as fuel heaters for diesel engines, high-voltage electrical systems, and infrared thermal imaging equipment. Moreover, the quality of available Chinese alternatives does not meet former standards. The scarcity of high-quality ball bearings further complicates production.

Additionally, Russia's armaments supply chain has been severely disrupted. Key production centers in Ukraine, Georgia, and East Germany are no longer accessible. The workforce in Russia's military-industrial complex has dwindled from about 10 million to 2 million without a corresponding increase in automation. Ferroalloy production, vital for armor, has declined over the past two years. Despite claims of triple shifts, factories struggle to recruit enough workers and depend on aging machine tools imported from Germany and Sweden.

Artillery remains a significant component of Russia's military strategy. With North Korean support, Russia is producing about 3 million shells annually, maintaining a firepower advantage over Ukraine. However, the high rate of fire leads to rapid wear and tear on artillery barrels. In heavily contested areas, barrels require replacement within months. Russia has only two factories equipped with the sophisticated rotary forging machines necessary for producing these barrels, each capable of manufacturing approximately 100 barrels annually—far below the required thousands.

Analysts predict a critical exhaustion point for Russian tank and infantry vehicle stocks by mid-2024. At the current attrition rate, the refurbishment from storage will soon be unsustainable. Mr. Golts and Mr. Luzin suggest that Russia may reach this "critical point of exhaustion" by the second half of 2024, with some estimates giving it only a few months longer. The implications are significant: without sufficient new tanks, Russia will struggle to sustain offensive ground operations.

The new defense minister, Andrei Belousov, appears to be shifting focus toward ramping up drone production, potentially indicating a strategic pivot. As Russia's tank and infantry fighting vehicle stocks dwindle, it may be forced to adopt a more defensive posture. This shift could become apparent before the end of summer 2024. Analysts like Mr. Gjerstad of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) argue that President Putin's interest in a temporary ceasefire may soon increase, reflecting the growing strains on Russia's military capabilities.

Russia's reliance on Soviet-era weaponry, compounded by production constraints and sanctions, is creating a critical vulnerability in its military strategy. As these vast stockpiles near depletion, the sustainability of Russia's offensive in Ukraine is increasingly in question. While Ukraine continues to demonstrate resilience, the burden on Russia's military-industrial complex suggests a potential need for strategic recalibration. Without a significant change in circumstances, Russia may soon be compelled to scale back its offensive operations, marking a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict.