Pharaohs of the Boardroom: CEOs as Modern Monarchs

 

CEOs, with their chauffeur-driven limos and private jets, resemble the aristocratic rulers of yesteryears, soaring above the masses in their pursuit of power and riches.

In the early 15th century, Prince Henry of Portugal, often referred to as "Henry the Navigator" by historians, played a pivotal role in the financing and support of Portuguese voyages of discovery. His patronage was instrumental in promoting maritime exploration, particularly along the coast of Africa and into Asia. Prince Henry's visionary approach to navigation and exploration laid the foundation for Portugal's Age of Discovery, leading to the exploration of new trade routes and territories. His unwavering commitment to expanding Portugal's influence in the world through exploration set a precedent for other European powers in the Age of Exploration.

Notably, when Christopher Columbus sought financial support for his ambitious westward voyage in search of a new route to the "Indies," he initially turned to the king of Portugal. Although his proposal was initially declined, Columbus eventually secured the backing of Ferdinand and Isabella of Spain. Monarchs across Europe were motivated to finance these exploratory endeavors because they believed that discovering new lands and trade routes would not only enhance their prestige but also bolster their treasuries through increased trade and access to valuable resources. This era of exploration and expansion played a crucial role in shaping the course of world history, as it marked the beginning of a global interconnectedness that continues to influence our world today.

In the 21st century, corporate executives have undergone a profound transformation, transcending their traditional roles as mere business leaders and becoming deeply involved in adventure and exploration, much like the explorers and monarchs of bygone eras. This shift in their pursuits has been exemplified by high-profile figures such as Sir Richard Branson of Virgin and Jeff Bezos of Amazon, who recently embarked on daring journeys to the edge of space. Elon Musk, the visionary behind Tesla, has propelled this trend even further by spearheading the ambitious SpaceX program and publicly voicing his aspirations for the eventual colonization of Mars. These contemporary corporate titans have effectively extended their reach beyond the confines of Earth, contributing to a new era of space exploration.

The idea that individual businessmen now possess the resources and technology to participate actively in space exploration would have seemed far-fetched just six decades ago, during the height of the space race between America and the Soviet Union. Back then, space exploration was the exclusive domain of powerful governments and military institutions. The fact that private enterprise has now entered the fray speaks volumes about the unprecedented wealth accumulation witnessed in the 21st century. It underscores the vast economic disparities that exist in our world today, with a handful of individuals wielding financial resources that rival those of entire nations.

The comparison between modern corporate executives and historical monarchs goes beyond space exploration and extends to various aspects of their conduct and lifestyle. Much like absolute monarchs who built grand palaces and commissioned monumental structures to assert their power and legacy, contemporary tycoons construct imposing corporate headquarters that serve as symbols of their influence and prestige. The sprawling, architecturally stunning campuses of Silicon Valley tech giants are the modern-day equivalents of these historical monuments.

Furthermore, the distinction between the privileged elite and the general populace remains evident in the means of transportation used by modern CEOs. While ancient monarchs relied on horse-drawn carriages to separate themselves from the commoners, today's corporate leaders opt for chauffeur-driven limousines and private jets, reinforcing the idea of an ever-widening wealth gap.

Another striking parallel between modern executives and historical rulers lies in their dealings with sources of power and potential threats. Executives must navigate the corporate landscape, where boards of directors serve as their contemporary versions of feudal barons. These boards often wield significant influence and may attempt to unseat CEOs if they deem it necessary for the company's interests. Additionally, ambitious younger executives, referred to as princelings in modern corporate parlance, consistently vie for the top spot, seeking to ascend the corporate hierarchy. However, unlike the harsh consequences faced by unseated monarchs of the past, dethroned corporate leaders today typically enjoy the cushion of substantial severance packages and exit compensation, reflecting a more humane and pragmatic approach to leadership transitions.

Then there is the contemporary CEO's mastery over time, a phenomenon reminiscent of the courts of yore. In the opulent realm of Louis XIV, France’s “Sun King”, every aspect of daily life revolved around the monarch's preferences, from the minutiae of his dressing routine to the timing of his meals and bedtime. Courtiers considered it an honor to witness these rituals and adjusted their schedules accordingly. Similarly, today's corporate leaders possess the power to shape the daily routines and habits of those in their orbit. If a CEO chooses to start the day at 5 am, sending out emails and messages, there's an unspoken expectation that staff will mirror this early rising and promptly respond. Likewise, if the CEO opts for weekend Zoom conferences or Friday night working dinners, the work-life balance and personal lives of subordinates may be sacrificed on the altar of corporate demands. This ability to influence and dictate the schedules of others is a modern manifestation of the monarch's control over courtly life, illustrating how the powerful can shape the daily existence of those around them.

Arrogance is another noteworthy commonality between modern executives and historical rulers. An anecdote from John Preston's book "Fall" about Robert Maxwell, the publishing tycoon, echoes the excesses of royalty. Maxwell's dissatisfaction with his food could lead to dramatic plate-sweeping episodes, leaving others to clean up the mess. This display of entitlement and disregard for the efforts of others mirrors the arrogance often associated with monarchs like Louis XIV, who demanded absolute obedience from their courtiers. Maxwell's penchant for eavesdropping on staff conversations by bugging their phones is reminiscent of the intrusive surveillance tactics employed by historical monarchs, such as Louis XIV's interception of mail. These examples illustrate how power can breed hubris, regardless of the time period, leading individuals to believe they are exempt from the rules and norms that govern others.

Lavish entertainment serves as a another point of convergence between modern tycoons and ancient monarchs. Historical rulers frequently organized extravagant balls and events to showcase their wealth and magnificence, vying to outdo one another. In today's corporate world, business leaders similarly spare no expense to secure headline-worthy entertainment for their personal celebrations. From hiring top-tier rock stars to perform at their birthdays to hosting lavish parties at prestigious venues, such as Carlos Ghosn's event at the Palace of Versailles, these displays mirror the ostentatious demonstrations of status and prosperity that characterized royal gatherings throughout history.

Empire expansion, whether achieved through military conquest or strategic alliances, is a defining trait of monarchies. Modern executives achieve a similar objective through mergers and acquisitions, leveraging their financial resources to acquire smaller competitors and eliminate disruptive threats. In essence, ancient monarchs functioned as monopolistic providers of security services, financing their realms through taxation and conscription. However, unchecked ambition and overextension could lead to the decline of once-mighty empires, as exemplified by Philip II of Spain's costly military campaigns against England and the Netherlands.

Contemporary corporate leaders face analogous risks when they undertake excessive debt through imprudent acquisitions or attempt to manage multiple ventures simultaneously. For example, Jeff Bezos, deeply involved in space exploration through Blue Origin, retains a central role as the executive chairman of Amazon. Elon Musk, while leading SpaceX's ambitious endeavors to reach Mars, simultaneously oversees Tesla's electric car initiatives. This parallel underscores the potential dangers of juggling multiple frontiers and responsibilities, reminiscent of historical monarchs who faltered when they seemed at the zenith of their power.

In essence, the compelling comparisons between contemporary CEOs and historical monarchs serve as a compelling testament to the unchanging nature of human ambition and leadership dynamics. Whether it be the ability to control time, manifested in the CEO's capacity to influence the daily routines of their subordinates, or the echoes of arrogance seen in both past rulers and modern corporate magnates, these parallels remind us that certain fundamental aspects of leadership are ingrained in human nature. These shared traits and tendencies persist across the ages, reinforcing the notion that the pursuit of power and the challenges of wielding it are timeless themes that transcend the boundaries of history.

Moreover, these parallels offer valuable insights into the complexities of authority on a grand scale. Whether through the expansion of empires in ancient times or the pursuit of corporate dominance through mergers and acquisitions in the modern era, leaders have consistently grappled with the risks of overextension and the burdens of managing vast resources. By examining these historical patterns, we gain a deeper appreciation of the enduring challenges that leaders face, even as the world around them evolves. Ultimately, the striking similarities between modern CEOs and historical monarchs serve as a compelling reminder that the human quest for power, influence, and the navigation of its inherent complexities are threads that weave through the tapestry of history, offering valuable lessons for leaders of all eras.

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

Carlos Ghosn Biography. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 13, 2023, from Encyclopedia of World Biography: http://www.notablebiographies.com/supp/Supplement-Fl-Ka/Ghosn-Carlos.html

King Philip II of Spain. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 13, 2023, from http://www.elizabethan-era.org.uk/king-philip-ii-spain.htm

Knighton, T. (1989). The Spanish Court of Ferdinand and Isabella. Retrieved 12 13, 2023, from https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-20536-3_13

Marinescu, P., Toma, S.-G., & Constantin, I. (2016). Carlos Ghosn, A Leader Par Excellence. Manager Journal, 24(1), 191-198. Retrieved 12 13, 2023, from https://ideas.repec.org/a/but/manage/v24y2016i1p191-198.html

National Geographic. (2015). Christopher Columbus. Retrieved from History & Culture: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/christopher-columbus

Preston, J. (2021). Fall: The Mysterious Life and Death of Robert Maxwell, Britain's Most Notorious Media Baron. New York: Harper Collins.

Richard Branson and Virgin-Probably Britains best known Entrepreneur. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 13, 2023, from Solar Navigator.net: http://www.solarnavigator.net/sponsorship/richard_branson.htm

The Economist. (2021, August 7). Bartleby: Chief Executives are the New Monarchs. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/business/2021/08/07/chief-executives-are-the-new-monarchs

 

 

Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive in Retrospect

 

 The lack of success in Ukraine's counter-offensive operation has taught us that in strategic endeavors, whether they involve warfare, diplomacy, or any other form of confrontation, the element of surprise and the ability to keep adversaries such as Russia in the dark can often be the key to success.

I vividly recall the time when Ukraine was planning and strategizing its counteroffensive, with the goal of pushing back Putin's army and reclaiming their territory. During that period, virtually everyone I knew was filled with jubilation, believing that Ukraine would finally impart a lesson to Russia, given that Ukraine army is bolstered by the support they were receiving from the United States and European Union nations. Regrettably, Ukraine's counteroffensive ultimately ended in failure.

The facts are clear: Ukraine's counter-offensive, a critical moment in the ongoing conflict with Russia, ultimately failed to achieve its objectives. However, it is important to clarify that the failure wasn't due to the incompetence of Ukrainian soldiers. Instead, the operation's shortcomings can largely be attributed to the extensive and prolonged advertising of the impending counter-offensive in the months leading up to its execution. This over-advertisement had the unintended consequence of tipping off the Russian military and, in essence, revealing Ukraine's battle plans to its adversary. The result was a missed opportunity that could have otherwise led to a successful campaign to reclaim lost territories.

The counter-offensive garnered so much attention and coverage that even children in Russia were well aware of it. This widespread knowledge gave the Russian military ample time to strategize, fortify their positions, and prepare to counter Ukraine's advances effectively. Essentially, Ukraine's intentions were laid bare for their opponent, allowing Russia to respond with both caution and precision.

In the realm of warfare, particularly when confronting a calculated and cunning leader like Vladimir Putin and the formidable Russian Army, disclosing your plans to the enemy is a fundamental error. It is akin to handing them a playbook to anticipate your moves and counter them. As the saying goes, "Loose lips sink ships." In this case, Ukraine's efforts would have been better served if they had maintained the utmost secrecy surrounding their counter-offensive plans. Had the operation been conducted as a top-secret mission and executed swiftly and decisively, the Ukrainian Army might have achieved a resounding victory over the Russian forces. We could now be discussing the triumphant return of Crimea to Ukrainian control instead of analyzing a campaign that fell short of expectations.

An invaluable lesson can be drawn from this situation, as underscored by a saying passed down through generations: even the most powerful and feared individuals in a village would not stand a chance against a surprise attack. This principle extends to armies as well. Even a well-equipped and formidable military force can be vulnerable to an unexpected assault. To illustrate this point, consider the case of Israel on October 7, when the Iran-backed terrorist group Hamas launched a sudden and vicious attack. The element of surprise was their most potent weapon. If Hamas had openly declared their intentions as Ukraine did with Russia, Israel would have been better prepared to thwart their efforts, potentially intercepting them while they were still in Gaza. In war, the element of surprise can often be the decisive factor between success and failure.

This should serve as a valuable lesson for both Ukraine and America: Never disclose your intentions to your enemy, especially when that enemy is Putin. In my tribe (that is, the Igbo tribe of Eastern Nigeria), there exists a profound proverb that encapsulates this principle – "it is only a tree that will know you are coming to cut it down and yet wait for you to do it." In stark contrast, when it comes to human beings, if they are aware that you intend to harm them, they won't simply stand idly by, awaiting your actions. Instead, they will take proactive measures to evade capture or, even worse for you, they might set up an ambush to confront you as you approach. This ancient wisdom holds significant relevance in the realm of international affairs and warfare, and both Ukraine and America should take heed.

Ukraine, in particular, should draw essential insights from this proverb. As I noted earlier, the recent failure of their counter-offensive, largely attributed to excessive pre-announcement and publicity, highlights the critical importance of maintaining secrecy and unpredictability in military strategy. Revealing your intentions to your adversaries can be akin to handing them the upper hand, as it allows them to prepare, adapt, and strategize accordingly. In a high-stakes geopolitical landscape where deceit and surprise can be decisive factors, discretion is a valuable asset. Similarly, America, despite its vast military capabilities and resources, should not underestimate the wisdom embedded in this Igbo proverb. In an era of global interconnectedness and information dissemination, the temptation to broadcast intentions for various reasons, such as garnering international support or demonstrating resolve, may arise. However, such transparency must be weighed carefully against the potential risks it poses when dealing with dictators such as Putin and Xi Jinping. Even a superpower like the United States must remember that revealing intentions prematurely can compromise the effectiveness of its military actions and diplomatic efforts.

Ultimately, the lesson is universal: In strategic endeavors, whether they involve warfare, diplomacy, or any other form of confrontation, the element of surprise and the ability to keep adversaries in the dark can often be the key to success. As the world continues to evolve, the significance of this ancient wisdom remains undiminished, reminding nations and leaders that, in the face of adversaries, discretion can be a powerful ally.

Political Paralysis: America's Support for Ukraine in Jeopardy

 

President Biden and the Democrats need to heed the proposals of the Republicans so that America can assist Ukraine in completing the task of defeating Putin. The facts are clear: Putin must be defeated in order to impart lessons to other dictators who are evidently watching the entire situation. If aiding Ukraine necessitates addressing the chaos at the American southern border, so be it.

The United States has always taken pride in being known as the "arsenal of democracy." It is a term that highlights America's historical role in supplying its allies with the weapons and support they need to defend democratic values. However, recent developments have cast a shadow over this proud reputation, raising concerns about America's ability to provide essential support to key allies like Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

One of the main challenges in this scenario is a combination of factors: industrial strain and political deadlock. The American defense industry has been stretched to its limits, struggling to keep up with the growing demand for military equipment and supplies. This strain has put immense pressure on the country's capacity to effectively meet the security needs of its allies.

Adding to the complexity of the situation is the political gridlock in Washington. An emergency spending bill aimed at providing crucial security assistance to Ukraine and Israel faced significant hurdles in the U.S. Senate. The bill got blocked, largely due to Republican insistence on including stricter immigration measures related to the U.S.-Mexico border. Even if the Senate can eventually find a compromise and pass the bill, there's uncertainty about whether it will gain approval in the House of Representatives.

These political obstacles have real and tangible consequences. The Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the Pentagon to supply allies with weapons from existing U.S. stocks, is facing limitations because Congress hasn't allocated new funding. This has made U.S. military leaders more cautious, as they don't want to give away more weaponry than they can replace. With only about $5 billion left in the PDA account and just $1 billion allocated for replenishment, the situation is becoming increasingly precarious.

The impact of these limitations is felt directly on the front lines. For instance, Ukrainian forces were using a significant number of larger calibre shells (152mm and 155mm) each month during the summer, ranging from 220,000 to 240,000. However, due to reduced support, these numbers are now decreasing and expected to drop to 80,000-90,000 per month. This reduction in firepower is a direct consequence of the challenges facing America's "arsenal of democracy," once a symbol of unwavering support for its allies but now grappling with serious limitations and uncertainties.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is currently facing an increasingly precarious situation as Russia continues to outpace Western countries in artillery shell production and receives unexpected support from North Korea. For Ukraine, the focus has shifted from planning large-scale offensives to the critical task of defending its current positions. The future of Ukraine now hinges on various factors, including decisions made in the U.S. Congress in the coming weeks and the commitment of European allies to provide essential support.

President Joe Biden has requested a significant $61 billion for Ukraine-related expenditures, which includes replenishing American military stocks. However, this request has been bundled into a larger supplemental budget of $106 billion. The political landscape is complex, with Republican leaders feeling pressure from "America first" hardliners who are skeptical of allocating funds to Ukraine. Their argument is that while it's vital to support Ukraine, the United States also needs to address its own border security issues. Striking the right balance between supporting Ukraine and safeguarding America's borders is a challenging task. There's growing concern among Ukraine's supporters in Congress that if the assistance doesn't pass this month, it may become impossible to secure in 2024, a crucial election year marked by heightened political tension.

In Europe, there has been a belated increase in contributions to Ukraine, and European nations have committed to providing multi-year support. Collectively, they've even surpassed the United States in overall commitments to Ukraine, according to available evidence. However, doubts are emerging about their ability to fulfill their financial aid promises. Additionally, they are falling short of their commitment to supply 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by March, raising concerns about their capacity to meet their pledges effectively.

The year 2024 was already looking ominous for Ukraine, but with each passing week of political deadlock in the United States, the situation becomes even grimmer. The uncertainty surrounding funding and support for Ukraine adds another layer of complexity to an already challenging landscape. The fate of Ukraine, as it strives to defend its territorial integrity against Russia's aggression, hangs in the balance. The decisions made by U.S. lawmakers and the actions of European allies will play a pivotal role in shaping Ukraine's future, which is a matter of great concern and importance on the global stage.

The Moment of Truth

My late father imparted a wealth of wisdom to me during my formative years. He would often say, "Ejike" (calling me by my tribal name), "if you start a good thing, you must finish it. You will never regret it. You must never stop a good thing halfway, Ejike. Otherwise, what's the point?" Today, I find myself echoing his words, directing them towards President Biden and the Democratic politicians in Washington.

Supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Putin's aggression is undeniably a noble cause. It is high time the world took a firm stance and placed Mr. Putin in his rightful position. Failure to do so may embolden him to further expand his empire, potentially sparking a more significant conflict that could eventually involve the United States, akin to the actions of Adolf Hitler in Germany and Emperor Hirohito in Japan during World War II. The repercussions of such a scenario would be dire, not just for Ukraine but for global stability.

Moreover, a Ukrainian victory would serve as a powerful lesson for other dictators, including President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China and President Sayyid Ebrahim Raisolsadati of Iran, who are undoubtedly observing the situation closely. It would demonstrate that the international community is willing to stand up against aggression and uphold the principles of sovereignty and self-determination.

In this context, if assisting Ukraine necessitates addressing the chaos at the American southern border, it should be pursued without hesitation. There is nothing inherently wrong with a country as capable as the United States resolving issues at its borders that are currently compromised. In fact, such actions are long overdue and are part of upholding national security and integrity. Ensuring that America's borders are secure is not only a matter of domestic importance but also contributes to its ability to play a responsible and influential role on the global stage. Therefore, supporting Ukraine while addressing border security concerns is not only a matter of practicality but also a moral imperative that aligns with the values of justice and responsibility.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

The Economist. (2023, December 2). The Dwindling Arsenal of Democracy: America’s Political Paralysis is Complicating Its Support for Ukraine. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/12/02/americas-political-paralysis-is-complicating-its-support-for-ukraine

U.S. Department of State. (2023, December 6). Use of Presidential Drawdown Authority for Military Assistance for Ukraine. Retrieved from Fact Sheet: Bureau of Political-Military Affairs: https://www.state.gov/use-of-presidential-drawdown-authority-for-military-assistance-for-ukraine/

Zengerle, P. (2023, December 7). US Senate Republicans Block Ukraine, Israel Aid Bill Over Border Dispute. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-sets-test-vote-ukraine-aid-despite-republican-opposition-2023-12-06/#:~:text=WASHINGTON%2C%20Dec%206%20(Reuters),the%20U.S.%20border%20with%20Mexico.

 

 

Global Education Crisis: Troubling PISA Exam Results

 

Even prior to the emergence of COVID-19, the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), conducted every three years in OECD countries, indicated a prolonged period of stagnant school grades in the affluent world. The latest PISA score emphasizes that improving teacher training and motivation is a more effective means of improving grades than investing in smaller class sizes, a policy preference often favored by politicians.

Almost four years have passed since the world's classrooms first closed their doors to around 1.6 billion students due to the rapid spread of COVID-19. At the peak of this crisis, a staggering 80% of students worldwide felt the impact of these closures. During this challenging period, young learners had to adapt to remote education or, sadly, received no formal education at all. This disruption was the most significant disruption to education since World War II and had far-reaching consequences.

What is particularly striking is that in many countries, these closures continued long after it was clear that COVID-19 posed a relatively low risk to children's health and after vaccines became widely available for adults. Even when schools reopened, students and teachers had to grapple with social distancing and quarantine rules, which continued to disrupt the learning process. The true extent of the impact of these policies is only now becoming clear. On December 5th, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which mostly represents affluent nations, released a comprehensive set of data from assessments in math, reading, and science. These tests were taken by fifteen-year-old students between March and November of the previous year and provide the most insightful picture to date of how the pandemic affected their education.

While some countries like Japan, Singapore, and South Korea saw impressive academic performance despite the challenges, others were not as fortunate. British and American students generally scored above the average for wealthy nations, but it is essential to note that many regions fell significantly short of expectations. Surprisingly, despite the tough circumstances, some students managed to maintain their academic progress relatively unscathed.

The OECD has been conducting these tests, primarily on a triennial basis, for the past two decades through its Program for International Student Assessment, commonly referred to as PISA. Even prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, PISA data had already indicated that academic performance in the affluent nations had remained relatively stagnant for a number of years. However, in the most recent series of examinations, the results have taken a dramatic downturn (as depicted in Table 1). On average, students in wealthier countries recorded scores that were 10 points lower in reading assessments and nearly 15 points lower in mathematics compared to the previous examination conducted in 2018. This decline suggests that, in comparison to previous cohorts, those who participated in these recent tests have experienced an educational setback equivalent to missing between half to three-quarters of an entire school year.

 

Table 1: OECD Countries Average PISA Scores by Year

 

Subject	2003	2006	2012	2018	2022
Math	502	501	499	496	480
Reading	497	495	501	493	482
Science	-	503	505	493	491

Source: Culled from OECD; The Economist

 

A decline of this magnitude is nothing short of a calamity. It's widely recognized that each additional year of schooling a child receives has the potential to increase their annual salary by nearly 10%. This means that the lost learning experienced during the pandemic could continue to cast a shadow on wages for years to come. The repercussions are particularly profound for young students who, due to a drop in their grades, might fail to graduate from high school or fail to acquire the skills required for success at the university level. It's important to note that individuals with degrees in affluent countries typically earn around 50% more than those who enter the workforce immediately after high school.

In regions where the steepest drops in performance have been recorded, the situation is dire. According to PISA, 15-year-olds in these areas are now performing at levels that were typical of students a full year younger in 2018. Among the three subjects assessed by PISA, mathematics has been the hardest hit, with significant declines observed in countries such as France, Germany, and Poland. Notably, even Finland, often praised for the effectiveness of its educational system, has not been immune to these declines.

The findings for the United States and the United Kingdom are somewhat less conclusive compared to most other countries. Challenges in administering the tests to a sufficient number of students require cautious interpretation of their data. Nevertheless, it appears that test scores have indeed declined in both countries, albeit not as dramatically as in some of their neighboring nations. In the case of the United Kingdom, reading scores have regressed to levels last measured in 2006. The United States, while maintaining relatively steady reading scores, faces a significant challenge in mathematics, as its students have consistently ranked in the bottom third among wealthy countries in the OECD's numeracy assessments. The plummeting scores during the pandemic period only exacerbate the struggle to bridge this educational gap.

In 2022, PISA tests were administered to students in 81 countries and territories, with the majority of them being outside the affluent world. Interestingly, many developing countries that chose to participate in these assessments seem to have outperformed initial forecasts—though the underlying reasons might be rather somber. Andreas Schleicher, an expert from the OECD, notes that pupils in these regions typically exhibit slower rates of progress even under normal school conditions. Consequently, the disruption caused by being removed from classrooms may have had a less severe impact on their academic performance than anticipated.

The discussion surrounding achievement gaps presents a complex picture. PISA's findings suggest that, on the whole, the pandemic has not significantly widened the chasm between the test scores of economically disadvantaged students and their more affluent peers. However, this conclusion comes with a crucial caveat: it's primarily because, in most countries, even privileged children have seen their educational progress stagnate to a similar extent as their less advantaged counterparts.

This nuanced perspective on the impact of the pandemic underscores the pervasive nature of the educational challenges posed by COVID-19. While some developing countries have managed to weather the storm relatively well due to their historical patterns of slower educational progress, the pandemic has had a leveling effect on achievement gaps in many countries. The shared experience of disrupted learning among students of various socioeconomic backgrounds highlights the need for comprehensive efforts to ensure equitable access to quality education and support systems that address the diverse needs of students as they navigate the path to recovery.

Pandemic Victories

Education ministries around the globe would undoubtedly be envious of the fortunate few wealthy nations that have uplifting tales to share amidst the challenges of the pandemic. Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan stand out as remarkable examples where not only did test scores remain resilient throughout the pandemic period, but they even showed improvement in at least one of the three core subjects. Additionally, Israel and Switzerland also appear to have navigated these tumultuous times relatively well, at least based on the available data.

The strategies employed by these exceptional performers were diverse yet effective. Some of these nations succeeded in safeguarding the continuity of learning by implementing short-term school closures. Analyses within the OECD's dataset suggest a notable correlation between the duration of school closures and subsequent test performance among students. Switzerland, for instance, adopted a fully remote or hybrid timetable for a mere six weeks—a sharp contrast to the European average of approximately 29 weeks of school closures. Japan also demonstrated agility by curtailing summer breaks in 2020 to reclaim some of the lost class hours that students had endured up to that point. Singapore took a similar approach by modifying school holidays to maximize available learning time, illustrating their commitment to educational resilience.

For other top-performing nations, the key differentiator appeared to be the quality of remote education. South Korea, while enforcing strict and prolonged social distancing measures, allowed children to attend school only part-time for over a year after initial classroom re-openings. However, they did not leave their students to grapple with the challenges alone. In the first year of the pandemic, the South Korean government hired an additional 30,000 teaching staff, some of whom were retirees reengaging in their educational service. This approach, coupled with rigorous remote learning support, played a pivotal role in maintaining the educational trajectory of South Korean students despite the challenging circumstances.

These global examples highlight the multifaceted strategies employed by nations to protect and nurture their students' educational journeys during the pandemic. They underscore the importance of adaptability, resource allocation, and a steadfast commitment to providing quality education, even in the face of unprecedented challenges.

Helping Schools Recover

The question of how to breathe new life into education elsewhere looms large in the wake of alarming academic setbacks wrought by the pandemic. These disheartening results should rekindle enthusiasm for targeted programs aimed at helping students reclaim the learning opportunities lost during this crisis. For instance, in Britain, the government has allocated a substantial sum of about £3.5 billion ($4.4 billion) since 2020 to bolster such initiatives. This financial commitment is roughly equivalent to 6% of one year's total spending on schools. A considerable portion of these funds has been channeled into tutoring programs, with available data indicating that children are indeed making strides in their educational journeys. However, a looming challenge looms as the funding for this initiative is set to diminish next year.

Across the Atlantic in the United States, an astonishing $190 billion in federal relief money has been allocated to support schools since the onset of the pandemic. This staggering sum approximates one-quarter of the country's typical annual expenditure on public schooling. Yet, a significant portion of this funding has granted schools substantial autonomy in deciding how to allocate resources. Only a minimal 20% of this financial aid is mandated to be used for programs explicitly designed to steer children back on course with their learning. A crucial juncture is on the horizon, with the impending arrival of September next year, when this additional financial support is poised to evaporate.

Data made public in July by NWEA, a testing provider with access to scores from over six million students, paints a sobering picture for American pupils. It suggests that many students, across various grade levels, have not shown more significant academic progress than typical during the most recent academic year. Rather than catching up, these students appear to have advanced at a somewhat slower pace than the pre-pandemic standard. Compounding this challenge is the tight labor market, which has made it arduous for American schools to recruit a sufficient number of tutors who could accelerate the process of educational recovery. Another obstacle lies in the hesitancy of schools to extend the school day or add extra days to the academic year. It was always a formidable task to expect schools, emerging from a catastrophic event, to suddenly revolutionize the average school day to make it significantly more productive. In contrast, increasing the time dedicated to learning is a feasible objective that even the least innovative educational institutions can embrace.

In an ideal world, policymakers would seize this pivotal moment not merely to address the immediate challenge of mitigating the learning losses incurred during the pandemic but to institute comprehensive reforms capable of reshaping the less-than-impressive trajectories that many school systems had been tracing even prior to the pandemic's onset. The OECD's previous data analysis in 2018 revealed a sobering reality: 15-year-olds in most affluent countries were not demonstrating improved performance in mathematics, reading, or science when compared to their counterparts from two decades prior. In several major nations, including not only Finland but also France, the Netherlands, and New Zealand, among others, academic achievements were already on a downward trajectory. In such contexts, disentangling the precise extent to which the pandemic contributed to declining scores becomes a complex challenge. There is a substantial risk that underlying systemic issues will remain unresolved if poor results are simply attributed to a pandemic-induced anomaly.

The educational challenge at hand extends beyond the simplistic notion of increasing financial resources. In fact, between 2008 and 2018, per-pupil spending in wealthy nations increased by approximately 15%, yet this surge failed to yield significant and transformative results. According to OECD data, augmenting school funding tends to yield tangible improvements only up to a threshold of around $75,000 per pupil, distributed over a child's first ten years in school. Beyond this point, the returns on investment begin to diminish rapidly. The United States serves as a striking example, allocating more than $140,000 per pupil, while its academic performance in mathematics, science, and reading lags behind that of Japan, a nation that invests approximately 40% less per pupil.

Within this context, it is only natural for OECD officials to express concern when they hear education ministers pledging to "build back better" in response to the pandemic's impact. They fear that such a commitment may inadvertently result in pouring more financial resources into the same outdated strategies. A wiser approach would involve "building forward differently." International evidence underscores that improving teachers' training and motivation stands as a more reliable means of enhancing academic performance compared to simply allocating funds towards reducing class sizes—a measure often favored by politicians due to its apparent simplicity. Moreover, many education systems struggle to ensure that resources are distributed equitably, reaching the schools and students in greatest need. There is a looming risk that a golden opportunity for reform may be squandered if mediocre educational systems are reconstituted without addressing their inherent deficiencies.

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

Ajilore, O. (2013). Estimating the Spillover Effects of School District Demographics on Per-Pupil Spending. Journal of Education Finance, 39(2), 101-114. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from https://muse.jhu.edu/article/539784

Barshay, J. (n.d.). Per pupil spending by school district in the United States. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from Teachers College, Columbia University: http://educationbythenumbers.org/content/per-pupil-spending-by-school-district-in-the-united-states_57/

Bracey, G. W. (2007). The Proficiency Illusion. Phi Delta Kappan, 89(4), 316-317. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from https://questia.com/library/journal/1g1-172516996/the-proficiency-illusion

Cronin, J. (2004). Aligning the NWEA RIT Scale with the South Carolina High School Assessment Program. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from https://nwea.org/content/uploads/2004/07/south carolina high school study full report_07.pdf

Goodman, A., & Sibieta, L. (2006). Public spending on education in the UK: prepared for the Education and Skills Select Committee. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from https://ifs.org.uk/publications/3667

How much money does the United States spend on public elementary and secondary schools? (n.d.). Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from US Department of Education: https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=66

List of OECD Member countries – Ratification of the Convention on the OECD. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from OECD: http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpartners/list-oecd-member-countries.htm

OECD. (2023). PISA 2022 Results: Preparing Students for a Changing World. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/publication/pisa-2022-results/

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from Oecd.org: http://www.oecd.org

Springer, M. G. (2008). Accountability Incentives: Do Schools Practice Educational Triage?. Education Next, 8(1), 74-79. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ej780981

The Economist. (2023, December 5). PISA Marks Decline: The Pandemic’s Toll on Schooling Emerges in Terrible Exam Results. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/international/2023/12/05/the-pandemics-toll-on-schooling-emerges-in-terrible-exam-results

Warne, R. T. (2014). Using above-level testing to track growth in academic achievement in gifted students. Gifted Child Quarterly, 58(1), 3-23. Retrieved 12 6, 2023, from https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0016986213513793

 

 

Urgent Action Needed: Biden and Democrats Must Embrace GOP Border Security Concerns.

 

The truth remains that illegal immigration is eroding support for legal immigration due to the mayhem at the border. One thing the president and the Democrats should know is that most Americans would respect a politician big enough to acknowledge when the other guy has a point, even if his name is Trump.

Imagine a scenario where a centrist third party could actually gain traction in American presidential elections. While it might not seem feasible at the moment, the most compelling reason for such a party would revolve around the ongoing mass migration occurring in the western hemisphere. This migration issue is pushing both major political parties to adopt positions that, quite frankly, come across as shortsighted and, in some cases, inhumane.

The surge in illegal border crossings in the southern United States is undoubtedly a complex problem. However, it requires a thoughtful, multifaceted approach to find solutions that work for everyone. Unfortunately, the current state of American politics has led Democrats and Republicans to propose overly simplistic, mutually opposing solutions. These proposals not only make compromise seem impossible but also defy common sense.

A striking example of this polarization emerged in early October when the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) revealed plans to construct an additional 20 miles of barriers along the Rio Grande in southeastern Texas. During his campaign, Joe Biden had made a strong promise not to build "another foot" of wall. This shift in stance invited sharp criticism and accusations of hypocrisy, illustrating just how deeply divided our nation has become on this issue. And when the press confronted the president within the confines of the Oval Office, his response was a straightforward one: Congress left him with no other option. This assertion held some truth. Back in 2019, Congress had allocated a substantial sum of $1.375 billion explicitly for the purpose of erecting a barrier system along the south-west border. Despite fervent efforts to persuade Congress to reallocate those funds elsewhere, the Biden administration faced the genuine threat of violating the law if they failed to take action.

When questioned about his belief in the effectiveness of a border wall, Mr. Biden's response was unequivocal: No. It was a resounding denial. The issue at hand, however, extended beyond mere hypocrisy; it delved into the realm of sheer absurdity. Mr. Biden's response failed to align with a notion that would be apparent to any child: that walls, indeed, can be effective, but their effectiveness is contingent upon various factors and circumstances.

In the midst of the debate surrounding the effectiveness of border barriers, President Biden found himself facing a complex predicament. He could have drawn attention to a practical example right in front of him: the fence encircling the White House. This security measure, he might have argued, demonstrated why, during his time as a senator, he had cast votes in favor of constructing border barriers under both Democratic President Bill Clinton and Republican President George W. Bush. Furthermore, he could have highlighted the fact that during his tenure as Vice President in Barack Obama's administration, they had overseen the addition of more new miles of barrier compared to the subsequent Trump administration. (It's worth noting that while Trump's administration built 458 miles of wall, the majority of that replaced existing barriers, whereas the Obama administration added 130 incremental miles.)

Biden could have even referenced the Department of Homeland Security's 2023 budget, which explicitly states that barriers can effectively hinder and deter illicit cross-border activity by providing law enforcement with an increased response time. However, such nuanced explanations eluded him. The looming specter of former President Trump's grandiose promise to construct a colossal wall spanning nearly 2,000 miles along the border had constrained Biden's flexibility. Undoubtedly, investing in a border wall holds merit; it serves as a necessary measure even in areas where natural barriers exist. In remote regions where patrolling is feasible, a wall is less susceptible to evasion by smugglers attempting to breach it, a tactic employed numerous times in the past.

Yet, for President Biden, acknowledging the role that barriers can play in securing the border presented a conundrum. To do so would be to concede that Mr. Trump's stance was not entirely misguided. This, Biden's advisors recognized, would be perceived as anathema by the progressive base of the Democratic party.

The proposed new segments of the wall are slated to traverse Starr County, Texas, within the district of Representative Henry Cuellar, a Democrat. Cuellar holds reservations about the effectiveness of these barriers in his district, advocating instead for the allocation of resources towards increasing border agents and enhancing surveillance equipment. He expresses frustration over the reluctance of fellow Democrats to take concrete steps to secure the border. In a personal incident that brought the issue close to home, Cuellar was carjacked at gunpoint in Washington in early October. Although he emerged unharmed and commendably composed, he couldn't help but feel irked at having his sushi stolen along with his car. Seizing the opportunity when President Biden called to express concern, Cuellar emphasized the need for a balanced approach. He urged the President to understand that Democrats could simultaneously champion border security while respecting the rights of immigrants. In response, Biden appeared receptive and expressed a willingness to continue the conversation. The delicate balancing act of addressing border security while upholding progressive ideals remained a challenge at the forefront of Democratic politics.

In his latest book, "The Last Politician," Franklin Foer delves into the complex relationship between President Biden and the Democratic Party's shifting stance on immigration. Foer highlights that immigration was a significant area where Biden found himself at odds with the leftward trajectory of his evolving party. During his candidacy, Biden expressed concerns that embracing progressive immigration policies might alienate working-class voters in the rustbelt regions, a crucial demographic for Democrats. However, in his quest to secure the party's nomination, Biden realized that he needed to commit to a significant reversal of Trump's immigration policies, signaling a strategic shift in his approach.

Until recently, President Biden appeared comfortable with this strategic calculation, even as the situation at the border grew increasingly chaotic. The specter of Donald Trump, with his divisive rhetoric and policies, seemed to loom large, making it unlikely for suburban voters to defect to the former president. It was as though Biden aimed to remind voters why they had turned to him in the 2020 election and why the notion of a centrist third-party alternative, which had the potential to split the vote and benefit Trump, appeared unwise.

Now, don't get me wrong: I am a Republican, as I have stated in my previous articles, and I do like Trump. I also voted for him in the last election. However, I do not support his foreign policies, especially his desire to dismantle NATO and other international structures established by America, which have maintained world peace and cooperation for over seven decades. Furthermore, Trump's recent incendiary remarks characterizing migrants as "poisoning the blood of our country" only served to reinforce the contrasting image of his presidency when compared to Biden's more inclusive approach.

The dynamics of immigration policy within the Democratic Party and the broader political landscape continue to evolve. President Biden's challenge lies in navigating these changes while maintaining a cohesive party and addressing the pressing issues at the border. The debate over immigration remains a central and contentious aspect of American politics, with Biden's presidency serving as a litmus test for the delicate balance between progressive ideals and electoral pragmatism.

Border Bloopers

The surge of migrants arriving in cities and states represented by Democrats has become a pressing issue in the United States. The nation's immigration system, originally designed to manage the influx of single men from Mexico seeking employment, now faces a different challenge: families and individuals traveling from Venezuela and other distant regions. Unlike previous waves of migrants who often had contacts in America to help them integrate, these newcomers often find themselves staying in shelters, which places additional strain on public budgets.

In response to this evolving situation, there is a growing consensus that America needs to adopt a multifaceted approach to address the challenges at its borders. Suggestions range from the construction of a border wall to the allocation of more resources for border agents, asylum officials, and additional beds at the border. Another aspect of this solution involves greater flexibility in the ability to send migrants to other safe countries and the implementation of stricter consequences for those crossing the border illegally without legitimate claims. While some of these changes could be initiated through executive action by President Biden, many require congressional action, making them part of a larger policy debate.

As reported in The Economist, Andrew Selee of the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington-based think-tank, believes that the approaching budget negotiations offer a glimmer of hope for a compromise on these immigration challenges. While he acknowledges that a deal is not highly probable, he points out that there is now a more promising pathway forward than there was just a month ago. This newfound optimism is driven by a perceived willingness from the administration to explore tougher options and an increasing concern among Republicans about unfilled job positions. It's possible that enhanced border security may become part of the price for securing funding related to the Ukraine situation, further incentivizing both sides to find common ground.

In this complex and polarized political landscape, addressing the issue of immigration presents an opportunity for President Biden to bridge the divide. By acknowledging the real challenges posed by illegal immigration and engaging in meaningful dialogue with opponents, he has the chance to demonstrate leadership that transcends partisan lines. Such an approach may not only pave the way for practical solutions but also garner respect from most Americans who appreciate politicians willing to recognize valid concerns, even when they come from unexpected sources, perhaps even from someone with the name Trump.

Once again, let me reiterate what I just stated: The President should perceive the current situation as a unique opportunity to address an urgent matter. The ongoing issue of illegal immigration possesses the potential to erode public support for legal immigration, which is a crucial component of America's identity as a nation of immigrants. By demonstrating a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue and bipartisan cooperation, even when dealing with political opponents such as former President Trump, the President can garner the respect of the American people. Recognizing valid concerns and discovering common ground can pave the way for comprehensive immigration reform that harmonizes border security with compassionate and equitable immigration policies, ultimately benefiting both the nation and its citizens.

 

 

 

 

Notes

Democrats reiterate demand: Reopen the government before negotiations on border security. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 3, 2023, from https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/20/politics/democrats-shutdown/index.html

Foer, F. (2023). The Last Politician: Inside Joe Biden's White House and the Struggle for America's Future. London, United Kingdom: Penguin Press.

Jones, R. P. (2023, November 16). Commentary: With ‘Vermin,’ Donald Trump Crosses Fully into Nazi Territory. Retrieved from The Salt Lake Tribune: https://www.sltrib.com/religion/2023/11/16/commentary-with-vermin-donald/

S.744 - Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 3, 2023, from Congress.gov: https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/744

Sprunt, B. (2020, August 5). Biden Would End Border Wall Construction, But Wouldn't Tear Down Trump's Additions. Retrieved from NPR News: https://www.npr.org/2020/08/05/899266045/biden-would-end-border-wall-construction-but-wont-tear-down-trump-s-additions

The Economist. (2023, October 12). Lexington: Joe Biden Should Admit Republicans are (Partly) Right About Border Security. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/10/12/joe-biden-should-admit-republicans-are-partly-right-about-border-security

The White House. (2023, January 5). Remarks by President Biden on Border Security and Enforcement. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/01/05/remarks-by-president-biden-on-border-security-and-enforcement/

 

 

Understanding Israel's Determination to Dismantle Hamas

 

 

When Israelis discuss Hamas's attack as an existential threat, they mean it quite literally, not figuratively. The undeniable toll of Israel's strikes in Gaza underscores the gravity of the situation. However, achieving peace in the region necessitates a substantial dismantling and weakening of Hamas's control.

Israeli forces are now confronted with a harrowing situation, one they seem unable to prevent from unfolding. The relentless onslaught of Israeli airstrikes and artillery has laid waste to an alarming one in ten buildings in Gaza. This catastrophic campaign has resulted in the tragic loss of over 8,000 Palestinian lives, with a heart-wrenching number of victims being innocent children. Adding to the severity of the crisis, the Israeli blockade has exacerbated shortages of critical resources, including fuel, clean water, and food, placing the lives of many thousands more Palestinians in an ever-increasing state of jeopardy.

Across the globe, a unified call is echoing for an immediate ceasefire or for Israel to withdraw from its ground invasion. Amid this tumultuous period, the rhetoric of certain Israeli politicians, including Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, invoking calls for vengeance, has left many individuals with a disheartening impression that Israel's actions may indeed be both disproportionate and morally questionable. It is worth noting that among those raising these concerns, there exists a shared belief in the necessity of a Jewish state. However, they grapple with deep-seated apprehensions regarding a Jewish state that appears to undervalue Palestinian lives. These concerned voices are haunted by the fear that the slender hopes for peace in this enduring conflict may ultimately be entombed beneath the ruins of Gaza.

These arguments carry significant weight, but they lead to a conclusion that may not align with the ultimate goal of peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Undoubtedly, there have been distressing civilian casualties resulting from the conflict, and it is imperative for Israel to take measures to minimize such tragic outcomes. Furthermore, there is a pressing need for Israel to find effective ways to communicate these efforts to the global community, ensuring transparency in their actions. Simultaneously, the Palestinian population in Gaza faces a dire shortage of essential humanitarian supplies, necessitating a more substantial flow of aid from Israel.

Nevertheless, even if Israel commits to fulfilling these responsibilities, the path to lasting peace appears to require a significant reduction in Hamas's ability to utilize Gaza as a source of supplies and a base for its military operations. Tragically, this might entail the use of military force. To fully grasp why this approach is considered necessary, one must delve into the events of October 7th. When Israelis refer to Hamas's attacks as an existential threat, it's a literal concern, not a mere figure of speech. This unique apprehension stems from the historical context of pogroms and the Holocaust, which underscore the importance of Israel's social contract: to establish a land where Jews can live free from the fear of persecution or harm due to their Jewish identity. Over the years, the state has consistently honored this commitment through a strategic doctrine that emphasizes deterrence, early warning systems for potential attacks, protecting the home front, and achieving decisive victories in conflicts.

Over the course of the past two decades, Israel seemed to have lost sight of a fundamental truth: that Palestinians, too, deserve a homeland of their own. It was a period marked by a complex and often challenging political landscape. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there was a strategy that inadvertently ended up strengthening Hamas, a militant group, and in the process, it undermined the more moderate Palestinian voices. This approach, in hindsight, appeared somewhat cynical, as it aimed to argue that there was no genuine partner for peace negotiations on the Palestinian side. Instead of addressing the core issues, the Palestinian people's suffering became a matter of management, involving a mix of financial incentives and deterrence strategies, all of which were repeatedly tested by short-lived conflicts.

However, everything took a dramatic turn on October 7th when Hamas carried out a series of actions that shattered Mr. Netanyahu's already fragile strategy. In an unprecedented move, Hamas militants disrupted the social fabric in Israel by dismantling the security doctrine that had been painstakingly built to protect the nation. The previously reliable deterrence strategy proved ineffective, there were no early warnings of attacks, home-front protection faltered, and, tragically, Hamas managed to claim the lives of 1,400 people in Israeli communities. This incident resulted in a profound humiliation for Israel's military and intelligence forces.

The collapse of Israel's security doctrine subsequently unleashed a fierce and relentless bombardment against the people of Gaza. This forceful response was driven by the need to restore Israel's fundamental principle of security. Israel was determined to allow its approximately 200,000 evacuees to return to their homes, demonstrating to its numerous adversaries that it retained the capacity to defend itself. Most significantly, Israel came to recognize that Hamas, by consistently targeting Israelis without regard for the well-being of Palestinians in Gaza, had demonstrated an unyielding commitment to its objectives and proved itself undeterrable.

In essence, recent events have forced Israel to reassess its approach to the Palestinian issue, recognizing the need to address the aspirations of Palestinians for statehood while also safeguarding its own security. This delicate balancing act remains a formidable challenge, one with far-reaching implications that extend beyond the borders of Israel and Palestine, impacting the entire Middle East region. The human element in this complex narrative is essential, as it underscores the profound impact of these events on the lives of ordinary people caught up in the midst of a long-standing conflict.

War for Peace

The only way to break free from the cycle of violence is by dismantling Hamas's rule, which necessitates the elimination of its senior leaders and the destruction of its military infrastructure. The idea that a conflict causing the deaths of numerous innocent civilians can lead to peace deeply troubles many people, as it reminds us of the devastating human cost involved. Historically, one act of violence has often triggered another, and this remains a significant risk today, emphasizing the urgent need for change.

However, as long as Hamas continues to govern Gaza, achieving peace becomes an impossible task. Israelis continually grapple with a sense of insecurity, which leads their government to launch preemptive strikes against Gaza whenever Hamas poses a threat. The Palestinians, caught in the crossfire and often used as human shields during Israeli raids, suffer unimaginable hardships, which only further fuels their radicalization. The only way forward is to totally dismantle Hamas's control while creating the conditions for something new to emerge.

This process must begin with new leadership on both sides. In Israel, the pressure on Mr. Netanyahu to step down due to his tenure on October 7th and his tarnished reputation as Israel's staunchest defender is a reflection of the evolving human sentiment. The sooner this transition occurs, the better it will be for the people involved. His successor will need to secure a mandate for a new security doctrine that includes a comprehensive peace plan and measures to rein in Israeli settlers who are currently causing harm to Palestinians in the West Bank, all with the aim of improving the lives of those living in the region.

It is no secret that the Palestinians need moderate leaders who have a clear democratic mandate. Unfortunately, at the present moment, such leaders are in short supply. This situation can be attributed, in part, to the actions of Mr. Netanyahu, which inadvertently bolstered the influence of Hamas. Additionally, the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, has taken steps that sideline potential rivals within the Palestinian leadership. The critical question that arises is how to prevent Hamas, or any potential successor, from regaining control of Gaza before fresh leaders can emerge through fair and transparent elections.

This leads us to the second crucial condition for achieving lasting peace in the region: the establishment of a security force in Gaza. Given Israel's status as an occupying power, it is not in a position to provide the necessary security independently. Instead, the Gaza Strip requires the support of an international coalition, one that may include Arab nations with a shared interest in countering Hamas and its supporter, Iran. Without putting it in may words, creating such a coalition that garners consensus among all parties will demand dedicated leadership from the United States and a significant leap of faith from the regional actors involved.

This brings us back to a fundamental condition that can pave the way for a brighter future: a concerted effort to weaken Hamas to a point where a more constructive alternative can emerge. The approach taken by Israel in this conflict holds immense significance. It is imperative for Israel to uphold its commitment to honoring international law not just because it is morally right but also because it is essential for maintaining broad support throughout the course of the conflict. Ultimately, Israel's ability to garner backing for peace initiatives in the aftermath of the conflict will largely depend on demonstrating a willingness to change. Currently, this entails allowing increased humanitarian aid and establishing genuine safe zones in locations such as southern Gaza, Egypt, or even within Israel, particularly in the Negev, as a tangible demonstration of its sincerity in seeking a peaceful resolution.

As a practical matter, fostering peace in this challenging situation requires a combination of factors, including the emergence of moderate Palestinian leaders, the formation of an international security coalition for Gaza, and a strategic approach to dismantle and destroy Hamas while adhering to international norms and signaling a genuine commitment to change.

Thus a ceasefire at this point is a real obstacle to achieving peace. It would essentially allow Hamas to maintain its control over Gaza, whether the people there agree or not, and they would get to keep most of their weapons and fighters. The idea of humanitarian pauses might seem more reasonable, but even those come with a downside. They could actually increase the chances of Hamas surviving and staying in power. While nobody can predict the future, we all want the best possible chance for both Israelis and Palestinians to find peace. Unfortunately, a ceasefire at this stage would completely eliminate that chance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

Jobain, N., Magdy, S., & Nessman, R. (2023, October 25). Israeli Airstrikes Surge in Gaza, Destroying Homes and Killing Dozens at a Time. Retrieved from AP News: https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinian-gaza-war-hamas-hostages-macron-c2482817f230580c20b898bd65e5a4c3

Pompeo, M. R. (2023, November 20). Israel Defeating Hamas Aids Arab States, Even If They Are Afraid to Admit It. Retrieved from Hudson Institute: https://www.hudson.org/terrorism/israel-defeating-hamas-aid-arab-states-even-if-they-are-afraid-admit-it-mike-pompeo

Rigdon , R., & Choi, A. (2023, November 22). Thousands of Homes in Gaza are Damaged or Destroyed. See the Destruction. Retrieved from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/middleeast/map-humanitarian-aid-water-power-hospitals-gaza-strip-dg/

The Economist. (2023, November 2). The Middle East: Why Israel Must Fight On. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/02/why-israel-must-fight-on