The Splintering of Unity: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger's Exit from ECOWAS

 

As the pillars of West African unity crumble, the departure of these three nations signifies a critical juncture, potentially reshaping the future of African diplomacy and cooperation.

In a momentous turn of events that reverberated across the African continent, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2024. This decision marked a significant departure from decades of collaborative regional efforts, casting a shadow over the future of democracy, security, and economic stability in the region.

ECOWAS, established in 1975, was designed to foster economic integration and political stability among its 15 member states. It promoted the free movement of people and goods, a cornerstone for economic growth and inter-state relations. However, this vision was critically undermined by a series of coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Niger, which led to the rise of military juntas.

On the streets of Niamey, Niger’s capital, some citizens like Musa Ibrahim (the name has been changed to retain anonymity) celebrated the  withdrawal as a step towards greater sovereignty. In stark contrast, Comfort Ero, head of the Crisis Group, labeled the event an "earthquake" for regional unity, underlining its far-reaching implications.

The role of the military juntas in these countries has been pivotal to this fragmentation. Their consistent defiance of ECOWAS's demands for democratic governance, coupled with their alliances with foreign powers like Russia, has complicated the situation. Russian mercenaries have been involved in Mali since 2021, with recent deployments in Burkina Faso to prevent counter-coups. Similarly, Niger has sought military and financial support from Iran, Russia, Serbia, and Turkey.

The military juntas have publicly justified their decision to exit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by pointing to the bloc's supposed ineffectiveness in combating terrorism. This explanation, however, is met with skepticism and contradiction from various quarters. Critics of the juntas' rationale highlight the pivotal role ECOWAS played in supporting Mali during the 2013 jihadist crisis, where the bloc's intervention was instrumental in stabilizing the region against escalating terrorist threats. This historical context casts doubt on the junta's current allegations of ECOWAS's ineffectiveness. Furthermore, political analysts and regional experts speculate that the underlying reason for this strategic withdrawal from ECOWAS is more politically motivated than security-related. They argue that the juntas' primary aim is to sidestep the increasing pressures from ECOWAS for a return to democratic governance. By distancing themselves from the bloc, these military regimes seem to be seeking autonomy to consolidate their power without the constraints of regional democratic standards and interventions, an ambition that aligns with their recent actions and alliances with non-democratic foreign powers. This maneuvering suggests a deeper political strategy aimed at maintaining authoritarian control rather than a genuine response to security challenges posed by terrorism.

The economic and humanitarian consequences of leaving ECOWAS are substantial. These three nations, collectively constituting less than a tenth of the entire economic output of the ECOWAS bloc, are poised to experience profound economic setbacks. This is particularly due to the disruption of the free movement of goods, a cornerstone of the ECOWAS agreement that has historically  facilitated trade and economic interdependence among member states. The cessation of trade agreements with regional economic powerhouses like Ghana and Nigeria - which together account for a significant portion of the bloc's GDP - represents a substantial economic blow to these exiting countries. Their economies, already fragile and facing various challenges, are likely to suffer from reduced market access, increased trade barriers, and potential retaliatory economic measures. Beyond the economic impact, this disengagement also carries serious humanitarian implications. Millions of Sahelians, who have historically relied on the stability and opportunities afforded by ECOWAS membership, now face an uncertain future. The free movement of people, a key benefit of the ECOWAS agreement, facilitated not just trade but also migration for employment, education, and family reunification across borders. With this exit, the safety and livelihoods of these individuals are at risk, as they may face restricted movement, increased border controls, and potential xenophobia. The ripple effects of this decision are expected to exacerbate existing challenges in the region, including poverty, unemployment, and social unrest, further complicating the already complex humanitarian landscape in the Sahel region.

The exodus from ECOWAS signals a worrying erosion of democratic values and human rights. Without the bloc's influence, hopes for restoring democracy in these nations diminish. The juntas have more liberty to fight jihadists and suppress dissent without international oversight, leading to potential human rights abuses. The 2022 Mali massacre, involving soldiers and Wagner mercenaries killing around 500 civilians, exemplifies the potential for unchecked brutality.

The future of regional unity and security is now in jeopardy. As jihadist activities intensify along the borders, coordinated efforts are crucial. However, the removal of French troops and UN peacekeepers has worsened the situation, marking the past year as the deadliest in the history of these nations.

Undermining Shared Progress

The decision by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to sever ties with ECOWAS is a profound mistake, one that undoes years of collaborative efforts and shared progress. This move not only destabilizes the delicate balance of regional unity in West Africa but also risks setting a dangerous precedent for other nations within the continent grappling with similar issues. ECOWAS, since its inception, has been a cornerstone of cooperative politics, economic integration, and conflict resolution in West Africa. Its role in facilitating dialogue, mediating conflicts, and promoting democratic values has been instrumental in maintaining relative peace and stability in a region often marred by political turmoil and strife. The departure of these three countries from ECOWAS thus represents a significant step backwards, not just for the nations involved, but for the entire region. It effectively dismantles a collective framework that has, for decades, been a source of strength and unity for West Africa.

Furthermore, this exodus from ECOWAS brings with it a plethora of challenges and uncertainties that could have far-reaching consequences. Economically, it isolates Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from a vital regional market, cutting off access to beneficial trade agreements and economic partnerships. This could lead to significant economic downturns in these countries, exacerbating already existing issues such as poverty, unemployment, and social instability. Humanitarianly, the exit from ECOWAS compromises the safety and wellbeing of millions of people within these nations. The free movement of goods and people, a key advantage of ECOWAS membership, is now in jeopardy, which could lead to increased hardships for those who rely on cross-border trade and migration for their livelihoods. Moreover, this separation from ECOWAS could diminish the collective ability of West African states to effectively address regional challenges, such as terrorism and political instability. In a time when unity and cooperation are more crucial than ever, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger’s decision to leave ECOWAS not only undermines the progress made so far but also jeopardizes the future stability and prosperity of the entire region.