A government shutdown this weekend is akin to an economic and financial eclipse, casting darkness over the paychecks of millions of Americans.
With another government shutdown looming this weekend, it is easy to assume that this particular governance failure is happening more often. However, when we examine the historical context, we find that far fewer shutdowns have taken place in the past two decades compared to the turbulent periods of the 1980s and 1990s. While funding gaps between lawmakers and government officials remain relatively rare, the concerning trend is that when they do occur, they tend to last longer. This extended gridlock in the halls of power not only disrupts vital government services but also underscores a deepening divide in the nation's political landscape.
The politics behind these shutdowns have
taken on increasingly bizarre characteristics, marked by ideological clashes,
partisan polarization, and brinkmanship tactics. The stakes are high, the
public's patience is wearing thin, and the consequences of a prolonged shutdown
are more dire than ever. With each passing hour and episode of this political
theater, the nation's trust in its leaders wanes, leaving citizens and
institutions alike on edge, uncertain about the path forward for effective
governance.
Around two-thirds of the money the government
spends is mandatory, and it goes to programs like entitlements. The rest,
called discretionary spending, needs approval every year. In theory, it is
simple: the President suggests a budget, Congress talks about it, and they make
it a law before the new fiscal year starts on October 1st. But in reality,
Congress has only met this deadline three times in fifty years. Usually, they
use temporary plans to keep the money flowing. Since the 1980s, not having
enough money has caused the government to shut down.
Ronald Reagan argued with a House of
Representatives controlled by Democrats and had a few government shutdowns.
Republicans led by Newt Gingrich, the House Speaker, challenged Bill Clinton
twice. Today, many people in Washington expect a shutdown not because of
differences between political parties, but because of disagreements within the
House Republican group.
With a Democrat as the President, Republicans
are again interested in cutting government spending, which they stopped doing
during Trump's time in office. But House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is having a
hard time getting his group to agree on how to restart talks about spending
after they set the spending levels earlier in the year when they agreed to raise
the debt ceiling. Mr. Gingrich thinks this is a tough and risky political
situation. He said that when he had more people from his party in Congress, he
could navigate difficult fights more easily. In comparison, Mr. McCarthy has to
listen to congressmen like Matt Gaetz from Florida, who, according to Mr.
Gingrich, would likely vote against anything just because he doesn't like
McCarthy.
The current speaker gave in to the
hardliners' wishes and spent days trying to pass separate bills for government
spending and other policies. These plans would cut spending a lot and include
unrelated things like immigration rules. But they won't pass in the Senate or
be signed into law by Joe Biden, so a government shutdown seems likely.
The other choice is to pass a bipartisan bill
from the Senate to prevent a shutdown. But if Mr. McCarthy sides with a
reasonable, bipartisan majority in the House, it could lead to a vote on
whether he should keep his job as the Speaker. Donald Trump isn't helping much.
His position can be summarized in one sentence: If you don't get everything you
want, shut down the government!
At the same time, some members of the
hardline House Freedom Caucus are now mad at each other instead of Mr.
McCarthy. Chip Roy, a member of the Freedom Caucus, tried to make a deal on government
spending earlier, but his allies rejected it. He told Fox News that he doesn't
really know what to say to his fellow Republicans except that they are in for a
tough time, and maybe they deserve it. Mr. McCarthy's best chance of staying
the Speaker might depend on these divisions within his group.
What Happens?
As previously mentioned, the federal fiscal
year kicks off on October 1st, yet Congress has yet to secure the necessary
funding to sustain government operations. The Senate has managed to greenlight
a bipartisan bill that could stave off a shutdown until November 17th. However,
Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, faces
an uphill battle in persuading staunch conservative members of his party to
support this temporary funding measure. On September 22nd, the White House issued
orders for federal agencies to brace for what would be the fourth government
shutdown in a decade. What exactly transpires when the United States government
grinds to a halt?
Certain essential functions of the government
will remain operational. Veterans' Affairs Department-managed hospitals,
responsible for providing care to millions, will continue serving patients.
Postal services will persist, as the United States Postal Service is financed
through revenue generated from stamps and services, rather than relying on tax
dollars. Police, members of the armed forces, air-traffic controllers, and
Transportation Security Administration employees, responsible for airport
passenger screening, will all carry on with their duties. However, akin to
federal workers placed on "furlough" (instructed not to come to
work), they will not receive their paychecks during the shutdown. Following the
previous 35-day shutdown commencing on December 22nd, 2018, Congress passed
legislation guaranteeing back pay for the 800,000 furloughed workers, who
represented a significant portion of the 2.1 million non-postal federal
workforce. Nonetheless, prolonged shutdowns still pose financial hardships for
federal employees.
Certain government services will scale down
their operations. Beneficiaries of Social Security (pensions) and Medicare
should continue receiving their payments, though new applicants may face delays
in enrollment and disbursement. Other federal functions, however, will halt
either immediately or gradually as agencies deplete their allocated funding.
In past shutdowns, the Environmental
Protection Agency suspended inspections of chemical facilities, drinking-water
providers, and sites handling hazardous waste. The Food and Drug Administration
might cease inspections of slaughterhouses and other food-production
facilities. States have been compelled to fill in for federal obligations in
welfare programs. An extended shutdown could lead to the suspension of
food-stamp payments, heightening the risk of hunger among impoverished
families. National parks may remain open but with significantly reduced
services. Immigration courts, which are already strained, may struggle to
function, potentially hindering individuals seeking federal approval for home
or business loans.
The longer a shutdown persists, the greater
the risk of unforeseen consequences. These may include fatal accidents caused
by unrepaired bridges or highways and long-term health issues resulting from
unfunded research. Opportunities may be lost as well, with potentially
successful businesses unable to launch due to the Small Business
Administration's inability to process loans. Some lawmakers are contemplating a
"discharge petition" on the House floor, a move that would enable
them to force a vote on stopgap funding without Mr. McCarthy's involvement.
Although such a measure wouldn't avert a shutdown by October 1st, it could
expedite its resolution. If all else fails, the impending shutdown could prove
particularly detrimental. In 2018, Congress had already passed five of the 12
appropriations bills required to keep the government operational, whereas this
year, none have been enacted thus far.
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https://www.brookings.edu/articles/one-big-mess-in-search-of-a-big-idea/
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Shuts Down this Weekend? Retrieved from
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