As President Bazoum's reign comes to an end, the once formidable Western fortress in Africa's Sahel begins to crumble, leaving a significant void in regional stability. The departure of the last solid ally weakens the collective efforts to counter jihadist threats, emboldening extremist groups to exploit the newfound vulnerability.
As the clock ticked on, soldiers played hide-and-seek in the presidential palace, pondering if they were hosting a sleepover or orchestrating a coup. Finally, General Abdourahmane Tchiani emerged from his self-made labyrinth, conveniently transforming from the guardian of the gate to the ruler of the realm. It seems the palace's job description now includes a career path from 'protector' to 'usurper' – the modern-day fairy tale of betrayal. In a nutshell, after 48 long hours of confinement within his presidential palace, President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger found himself a reluctant guest of the soldiers. An additional 36 hours passed since a group of audacious soldiers appeared on television to announce the end of his rule. Lo and behold, the coup leader, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, a man of many names, emerged from the shadows, once the protector of Mr. Bazoum, now orchestrating the junta and claiming the title of head of state.
The junta's leadership dilemma reveals a
disorganized and contentious situation at the heart of the coup. Although many
aspects remain uncertain, it seems the soldiers' thirst for personal power and
political discord are the most plausible explanations for the coup. General
Tchiani's potential dismissal by President Bazoum likely triggered lengthy
negotiations among the army branches on July 26th before any public
announcement was made. Eventually, with a reluctant tone, the army chief of
staff, General Abdou Sidikou Issa, admitted his decision to support the coup
was to avert a deadly clash between various forces, fearing a potential
"bloodbath" that could jeopardize President Bazoum's life.
The repercussions of the coup extend far
beyond Niger's borders, dealing a severe blow to the already embattled region
plagued by jihadist activities linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State. The Sahel
region, encompassing Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, has witnessed a grim toll,
with approximately 10,000 lives lost in the conflict during the previous year.
The military intervened in Mali in 2020, overthrowing civilian rule, and
Burkina Faso experienced its own turbulent turn of events when armed men seized
power in January 2022, followed by another coup in September led by a different
group. Both juntas have been quick to point fingers and assign blame to French
forces while Mali welcomed mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group into its
midst.
Niger's significance as the last steadfast
ally of the West in the region cannot be understated, given the presence of
approximately 1,500 French soldiers stationed there, actively supporting the
fight against jihadist groups. The United States also maintains a significant
military presence with over 1,000 service personnel deployed, mainly focused on
drone operations. However, with the coup's uncertainty and the power shift, the
future role and involvement of Western forces in Niger now hang in the balance,
raising concerns about the ongoing efforts to combat the jihadist threat in the
Sahel.
The coup in Niger has heightened the already
complex security situation, leaving the region grappling with the loss of a
reliable ally and the potential ramifications on counter-terrorism efforts. As
the dust settles and power transitions, questions abound regarding the fate of
French and American forces stationed in Niger, and the region's ability to
confront the persistent and evolving threat posed by jihadist groups. The
uncertain landscape casts a shadow over the collective efforts to stabilize the
Sahel and underscores the challenges faced in maintaining regional security
moving forward.
Intrigue and Uncertainty
In an attempt to present his actions in a
more honorable light, General Tchiani echoed the neighboring juntas' claims,
citing the continuous deterioration of the security situation as the reason for
the coup. He criticized President Bazoum's approach to handling jihadists,
particularly expressing dissatisfaction with the decision to release some
alleged fighters. Additionally, Tchiani accused Bazoum of hindering serious
joint operations with Burkina Faso and Mali, arguing that maintaining the
current course could lead to the gradual and inevitable disappearance of the
nation.
However, upon closer scrutiny, much of
General Tchiani's justification lacked validity. President Bazoum's release of
some alleged jihadists was, in fact, a sensible effort to demobilize insurgents
through successful negotiations that had already borne fruit. Bazoum's
government had also brokered temporary ceasefires with certain jihadist groups
and facilitated peace deals between conflicting ethnic communities. In a
significant development, Bazoum's efforts led to various ex-jihadist commanders
beginning to persuade their former comrades to lay down their arms.
Regarding military cooperation with Burkina
Faso, President Bazoum had previously approved several joint actions, but this
cooperation waned following a second coup in Burkina Faso last September. It
appeared that Burkina Faso, rather than Niger, displayed reluctance in
cooperating. Daouda Takoubakoye, Mr. Bazoum's former deputy director of
cabinet, candidly observed that the coup was a self-serving move justified
solely by arguments propagated through social networks, highlighting the
personal convenience of those involved.
Indeed, Mr. Bazoum's anti-jihadist campaign
stands out as the most successful in the entire region. While Mali and Burkina
Faso have experienced a surge in death and destruction, Niger, despite also
facing separate jihadist violence from Boko Haram, witnessed less than a tenth
of the fatalities recorded in the two neighboring countries last year.
During the first six months of this year,
Niger saw the lowest number of conflict-related deaths compared to any similar
period since 2018. However, Mr. Bazoum's biggest challenge lay in his inability
to garner enough support from the army's top brass. This internal strife
appears to have played a significant role in the coup. Unfortunately, it is
doubtful that the new junta will bring about improved security. In Mali and
Burkina Faso, the ruling soldiers have only exacerbated the situation, making
it worse.
Mr. Bazoum's accomplishments in curbing
jihadist violence speak to his successful efforts in stabilizing Niger amidst
regional turmoil. Nonetheless, the internal dissent within the military and the
coup's aftermath raise concerns about the future security landscape in the
country.
The extent of General Tchiani's popular
support remains uncertain. On July 26th, while Mr. Bazoum was held, hundreds of
protesters bravely marched towards the palace, vehemently chanting "No
coup d'état!" Their peaceful demonstration was violently dispersed by
gunfire. The following day, a contrasting crowd assembled in support of the
coup, brandishing signs that read "Down with France!" and a few even
waving Russian flags. Regrettably, some of these supporters attacked Mr.
Bazoum's political party headquarters, resorting to violence and setting cars
on fire.
However, amidst this tumultuous landscape,
Mr. Bazoum boasts a significant base of supporters on the streets as well. Many
Nigerien citizens have observed that Mali and Burkina Faso, under military
rule, have experienced little positive change. A considerable number of
Nigeriens, who often remain unseen on television, ardently uphold democratic
principles. They argue that with this coup, Niger Republic faces regression,
akin to stepping back two decades in time.
Supporting this sentiment, President Emmanuel
Macron of France condemns the coup as illegitimate and perilous, endangering
the well-being of Nigeriens, Niger, and the entire ECOWAS region. Bola Tinubu,
the new president of neighboring Nigeria and chair of the Economic Community of
West African States (ECOWAS), affirms his commitment to preserving the
democratically elected government's functionality, making it clear that any
situation undermining democratic governance will not be tolerated within the
regional bloc.
The Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS) has firmly communicated an ultimatum to the junta, demanding the swift
restoration of President Bazoum to his rightful position. With a clear sense of
urgency, ECOWAS members emphasize the importance of upholding democratic principles
and the legitimacy of elected leaders. The ultimatum serves as a stark warning
to the coup leaders, outlining the consequences they may face should they fail
to comply. As the regional bloc stands united in support of President Bazoum's
reinstatement, the junta is left with a critical decision that could shape the
nation's future and its standing within the West African community.
There is currently no substantiated evidence
indicating the involvement of Wagner or Russia in the coup. In fact, the
Russian foreign ministry has publicly advocated for the release of President
Bazoum. Nevertheless, an unverified audio message supposedly issued by Yevgeny
Prigozhin, Wagner's leader, has emerged, suggesting that the events in Niger
were driven by the people's resistance against colonizers who sought to impose
their own way of life.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the
situation, some individuals find hope in the fact that President Bazoum has not
formally resigned yet. Surprisingly, he remained active on his phone throughout
July 26th and the entire month, engaging in conversations with America's
Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and the United Nations' Secretary-General,
António Guterres. Even after the soldiers declared the coup, President Bazoum
continued to demonstrate defiance, utilizing social media to post tweets.
Amidst the developing circumstances,
speculation and uncertainty persist, leaving many to await further information
to shed light on the coup's underlying motives and potential external
involvement.
No comments:
Post a Comment