Saturday, June 24, 2023

Comrades No More: Prigozhin's Rebellion Shakes Foundations

 


 In the words of Winston Churchill, Russian leaders are like "bulldogs fighting under a carpet." More than a year after Mr. Putin's invasion of Ukraine, it seems that his dogs of war are now openly fighting each other. As the drama unfolds, the world becomes a captive audience, observing with bated breath how the intricate plot of power dynamics will unfold on this turbulent stage.

In the face of accusations, betrayal, and rising insurrection, does Vladimir Putin's response reflect a cunning manipulation of power-hungry factions or a loss of control over his subordinates? The whole drama started on Friday (June 23), when the fight between Russia's warlords suddenly turned into what is basically a big rebellion. Wagner mercenaries started  going against the regular army and trying to control the city of Rostov-on-Don, which is close to Ukraine. The president, Vladimir Putin, spoke to the nation about the crisis and called Prigozhin's actions a betrayal of Russia. People are asking if he is playing games with power-hungry groups or if he is losing control of his own team.

The Wagner rebellion started when their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, made videos accusing Russia's army of attacking his group. He threatened to bring thousands of his fighters to fight back. Some generals made videos asking the Wagner troops to stay loyal, but it didn't work. On June 24th, there were videos on social media showing Wagner soldiers surrounding important places in Rostov-on-Don. People watched the videos and saw a street-sweeper working nearby. Later, Prigozhin was filmed outside a military building, calling Russian generals "clowns." He said they could keep fighting in Ukraine but demanded that the top leaders talk to him, or he would go to Moscow. Further north in Pavlovsk, videos seemed to show helicopters fighting. Wagner claimed they shot one down, and the army let them pass. Russian media didn't report on what happened in Rostov-on-Don, but the TASS News Agency published pictures of the soldiers, calling them Wagner fighters in English.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces have been trying to push back against their enemy, Russia. Although their progress has been slow, they will be happy to see the confusion and disorder among the Russian troops. It's not clear yet if they can take advantage of this situation and win in battle. Russia said that the Ukrainian troops were using Prigozhin's actions to plan an attack near Bakhmut, where there has been a lot of violent fighting involving Wagner. The Ukrainian commanders say they haven't used all their forces yet and are still looking for weak spots. However, it seems that they have already caused enough problems for Russia's military leaders.

Epic Showdown!

Mr. Prigozhin and the military leaders have been rivals for a long time. He has gained a lot of followers by making videos where he complains about the high command's corruption and incompetence. His group, filled with ex-convicts, has proven to be better fighters than regular Russian troops. Mr. Prigozhin has accused top officials of being cowards and deliberately withholding weapons and supplies from his group.

On June 23rd, Mr. Prigozhin posted videos that were even more surprising than usual. He questioned the reasons for Mr. Putin's military operation and claimed there was no real threat from Ukraine. He said Russian leaders, not Mr. Putin, had led the country to war because of corruption and selfishness. He also said Ukrainian forces were advancing, contradicting the Kremlin's claims. He called the information from the Kremlin a complete lie.

Things took a serious turn when Mr. Prigozhin claimed that Russian army units had attacked and killed thousands of Wagner fighters. He vowed that his group would respond and march against the Russian army, but he denied it was a coup. He specifically targeted Mr. Shoigu, accusing him of ordering the attack and running away to avoid explaining his actions. In another video, Mr. Prigozhin declared that the military leadership's evil deeds must be stopped. He demanded that nobody resist but didn't say what he would do. He also warned that his group would consider anyone who resisted a threat and destroy them immediately.

There is a lot of uncertainty about Mr. Prigozhin's actions. Mr. Putin has allowed him to criticize the campaign, even though others are jailed for calling it a "war." However, Mr. Prigozhin seems to have genuinely unsettled the top military brass. The defense ministry denied Mr. Prigozhin's accusations and called them a "provocation." The FSB, the main Russian security service, announced that they would prosecute Mr. Prigozhin for calling for an armed uprising. They warned Wagner fighters not to make a mistake, stop using force against the Russian people, and take steps to detain him. Senior generals who support Wagner also released their own videos late at night. General Surovikin, a deputy commander, sat with a rifle and pleaded with Wagner units to stop. He said the enemy was waiting for the political situation in Russia to worsen and urged them to follow Mr. Putin's orders.

Security forces, including armored vehicles, were seen in Moscow, and important facilities and authorities were given extra protection. Mr. Putin's spokesperson said that the necessary measures were being taken, and Mr. Putin himself vowed punishment for anybody or group causing armed uprising in Russia. Some analysts see this as a power struggle between Mr. Shoigu and Mr. Prigozhin.

In the words of Winston Churchill, Russian leaders are now like "bulldogs fighting under a carpet." More than a year after Mr. Putin's invasion of Ukraine, it seems that his dogs of war are now openly fighting each other. After over a year since Mr. Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, a surprising turn of events has occurred. Instead of focusing on external conflicts, it appears that the internal strife within Russia's ranks has escalated. The once united "dogs of war" under Putin's command are now engaged in open conflict amongst themselves. This unexpected twist highlights a growing rift and power struggle within the Russian military and government. As the dogs of war fight amongst themselves, the consequences and implications of this internal turmoil remain uncertain, leaving observers questioning the stability and future course of Russia's actions.

 

 

 

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Notes

Getty, J. A. (2013). Practicing Stalinism: Bolsheviks, Boyars, and the Persistence of Tradition. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Osborn , A., & Liffey, K. (2023, June 24). Russian Mercenary Boss Prigozhin in Standoff With Russian Army Amid 'Armed Mutiny'. Retrieved from Yahoo! News: https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-head-suggests-mercenaries-headed-043537006.html

Regan , H., & Raine, A. (2023, June 24). Russia Accuses Wagner Chief of Urging "Armed Rebellion". Retrieved from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html

TASS News Agency. (2023, June 23). Prigozhin Charged With Armed Mutiny, to Face Up to 20 Years in Prison. Retrieved from https://tass.com/russia/1637475

The Economist. (2023, June 24). Rebellion in Russia: Wagner Rebels Turn Against Putin’s Army. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/24/wagner-rebels-turn-against-putins-army

 

 

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