Thursday, May 18, 2023

Nigeria’s Presidential Election Drama Revisited: Chaos, Count, and Confusion

 

The recently concluded  presidential election in Nigeria was like a photo finish, with results appearing blurry and questionable. Tinubu's victory has left many Nigerian scratching their heads like perplexed kangaroos.

 

I had planned to write about the election in Nigeria that just ended. But every time I try to start the piece, I often lose interest because I am still upset about how that election turned out. It's like trying to write a love letter to your crush, only to find out that they're already taken. You just lose all drive and begin to consider drinking several shots  of Hennessy  to make yourself feel better. As I wallowed in my despondency, contemplating drowning my sorrows in a sea of Hennessy, a headline from Reuters, echoed by Yahoo News, hit me like a lightning bolt: "U.S. Casts Election-Related Visa Restrictions on Nigerians." It was a jolt of energy that snapped me out of my stupor, propelling me into a fervent writing frenzy about the Nigerian presidential election that was concluded three months ago. The headline prompted me to feel a feeling of urgency to investigate and report on the impact of the election by revealing its  potential repercussions on international relations. It also highlighted the relevance of the election in the global arena, which further highlighted its significance.

Nigeria's current ruling party's candidate, Bola Tinubu, was named the winner of the closest presidential election in decades after a chaotic vote and a messy count. The Nigeria's  electoral board said on March 1 that Mr. Tinubu, a 70-year-old former governor of Lagos and kingmaker in Nigerian politics for many years, got 37% of the vote. This put him ahead of Atiku Abubakar (29%), a businessman running for the main opposition party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi (25%), a third-party candidate running as a wild card for the Labor Party (LP).

The majority of pollsters and Nigerians  were surprised by Mr. Tinubu's victory, as they had placed Mr. Obi in a commanding lead in the competition to govern Africa's nation with the largest economy and the most populated population. (However, there were some analysts who expressed skepticism on the accuracy of the results of various surveys on account of the significant number of respondents who stated that they would not disclose their voting preference.) In addition to this, Mr. Tinubu's so called victory ensures that the All Progressives Congress (APC) party, which has led the government since 2015, would continue to hold power. During this time period, the average standard of living of Nigerians has decreased, while the country's levels of violence, separatism, and insecurity have increased. Concerns that the opposition parties' allegations of vote-rigging could lead to unrest shook the financial markets, resulting in a decline for Nigeria's international bonds.

As a result of the utilization of modern technology by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), this election was anticipated to be the cleanest and most transparent election that has ever taken place in Nigeria. Its methods were designed to unequivocally identify voters and send photographs of the results straight from each of the 176,846 polling places to a centralized collection point, where the general public would be able to view and validate them.

Increasing confidence in the democratic process was the goal of this plan. Many people in Nigeria have clear recollections of the presidential election that took place in 2011, when over 800 people were killed in clashes as a result of the losing party's allegations of electoral fraud. In spite of this, the Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has committed a number of errors, which has once again given rise to claims of vote manipulation,  rigging and improper conduct. Opposition parties have demanded that the election be held again. Concerns have been raised that the situation could escalate into violence, with the outcomes virtually probably being brought before the courts.

There were problems from the very beginning of the electoral process. There is documentary evidence that  one-third of polling locations were still not open an hour after voting had begun on February 25th - the election day in Nigeria.  Officials at some stations were working with insufficient materials. In battleground states like Lagos, Kano, and Rivers, armed men stormed and attacked some polling places while voters were casting their ballots. In addition to these accusations, there were also reports of voter intimidation, the buying and selling of votes, the theft of ballot boxes, and the burning of ballot papers. There is little doubt that all of this led to a lower turnout. With only 25% of eligible voters casting their votes, the turnout was significantly lower than the previous election in 2019, which saw 35% of registered voters cast their ballots.

 

A Comedy of Errors

 

The counting was likewise done in an arbitrary and haphazard  manner. The mechanism that was supposed to transmit the results electronically was plagued with several malfunctions. A sizeable portion of the election results  were never uploaded. The labels on several of them were both illegible and in the wrong order. Some of the returning officers made the mistake of sending in selfies rather than the tally sheets they were supposed to send in.

Voters who were dissatisfied with the results that were revealed at their polling stations flooded social media with images of the results in an effort to demonstrate discrepancies with the results that were reported at higher levels. In addition, party officials distributed images of handwritten forms that appeared to have been crossed out and replaced multiple times. At the Lagos collation center, an official with the Labor Party voiced her dissatisfaction with a colleague, claiming that the results were signed at gunpoint by the colleague. After receiving threats of physical harm, the electoral officer in Rivers state decided to suspend the vote count.

The parties that support Messrs. Abubakar and Obi have demanded a re-run of the election as well as the resignation of Mahmood Yakubu as head of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). According to Datti Baba-Ahmed, who is running for vice president on the LP ticket, the future government is likely to be constructed on blatant acts of criminality. The vice presidential candidate for the PDP, Ifeanyi Okowa, stated that Mr. Yakubu had a moral obligation to save Nigeria by halting the vote count. The procedure was described as free, fair, and credible by officials from INEC. According to Mr. Tinubu, the amount of alleged irregularities  was few in number, and they were inconsequential to the final outcome. In a preliminary report, international observers stated that the election fell well short of the legitimate and reasonable expectations of Nigerian citizens.

The opposition party is already seeking redress in the courts, which is something that frequently occurs after elections in Nigeria. It's possible that evidence gleaned from social media and other independent sources will prove to be essential to their case. There is a good chance that some tight results in areas where Mr. Tinubu just barely made it over the barrier of 25% that any candidate needs to clear in at least two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states and the federal capital in order to avoid a run-off election will be subjected to a particularly close level of scrutiny. Mr. Tinubu, whom INEC claimed was successful in accomplishing this goal in 29 states (but not in the capital), received only 25.01% of the vote in Adamawa state and 25.8% in Bayelsa state.

These near misses are indicative of a close race as well as a country that was divided into three distinct camps during the election, with each of the three major contenders gaining the lead in a separate set of 12 states. It is possible that Mr. Tinubu's capacity to unite a country that is still fragmented by religion, language, and ethnicity would be hindered by such divisions, as well as by the issues that have been raised about the validity of his election.

The fact that Mr. Tinubu is known for being a kingmaker motivated solely by his personal self-interest is not beneficial to his cause. His campaign slogan, "Emi lo kan," in Yoruba language, means "It's my turn." After such a vicious battle, it appears that,  in fact, it is.

The bottom line is this: With a reputation as a self-interested kingmaker, Tinubu's ambitions face headwinds, as his campaign slogan echoes a sentiment of personal entitlement. In the aftermath of this fierce battle, the question remains whether it truly is his turn or a different destiny awaits.

The curtains have been drawn, and the stage is set for Mr. Tinubu's grand presidential inauguration on May 29. However, lurking beneath the surface lies a tumultuous reality. With a reputation as a self-interested puppet master, Tinubu's lofty aspirations find themselves caught in a whirlwind of resistance, as his campaign slogan reverberates with an air of entitlement. As the dust settles from this fierce battleground, where INEC declared his triumph, the burning question lingers: Will it be a glorious coronation or a divergent path that awaits the fate of Nigeria?

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

Oyero, K. (2023, February 28). At Joint Briefing, Okowa, Baba-Ahmed Ask INEC To Cancel Elections . Retrieved from Channels TV: https://www.channelstv.com/2023/02/28/at-joint-briefing-okowa-baba-ahmed-ask-inec-to-cancel-elections/

Reuters. (2023, May 15). U.S. Imposes Election-Related Visa Restrictions on Nigerians. Retrieved from Yahoo News: https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-imposes-election-related-visa-124055302.html

Sivabalan , S., & Goko, C. (2023, February 28). Nigerian Bonds Drop as Opposition Boycott May Delay Vote Outcome. Retrieved from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/nigerian-bonds-halt-rally-as-investors-await-clearer-result#xj4y7vzkg

The Economist. (2023, March 1). A Change of the Old Guard: Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s Political Kingmaker, Wins a Flawed Election. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/03/01/bola-tinubu-nigerias-political-kingmaker-wins-a-flawed-election

 

 

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