Vladimir Putin's hopes of a victorious parade have been consistently deflated by Ukraine's stubborn resistance. I mean, it is obvious to anyone who is paying attention to the news: Vladimir Putin is a showman who likes parades. When he invaded Ukraine on February 24 of last year, he thought that his "special military operation" would bring victory within days. Some units were said to have dress uniforms already packed. Later, he hoped that the fall of Mariupol, a port city on the Azov Sea, would happen on May 9, the same day as his yearly Victory in Europe Day parade. But Ukraine held out for one more week, and the Moscow show was a bust. This year's parade looks like it could be dangerous because on May 3, Russia said it had shot down two Ukrainian drones that were headed for the Kremlin. Ukraine said it was not responsible for the attack.
The show probably wouldn't have had much to
celebrate anyway. This year, Mr. Putin's goal is a lot smaller than Mariupol,
and he hasn't reached it yet. Russia has been trying to take over Bakhmut, a
town in the eastern Donbas area that had 70,000 people living there before the
war. This has been going on for over ten months. Fighting is getting worse,
which suggests that Russia's generals are doing everything they can to get it
to the Kremlin by May 9—no matter what it costs. On May 1, the White House said
that since December, over 20,000 Russians soldiers had been killed. A
large number of them probably died in or near Bakhmut, making it the most
expensive fight since Iran attacked Basra 36 years ago. Public evidence shows
that outgunned Ukrainian troops are moving back 50–75 meters per day. They are
now only in the western parts of the city.
When the textbooks about this war are
written in the future, they will definitely talk about why the town was fought
over in the first place. Bakhmut isn't that important when it comes to
war strategy. The hills to the west of the town are a better natural
defense. The city has been turned into a pile of burning ruins. According to
papers that were recently leaked from the Pentagon, the U.S. has been privately
telling Ukraine's leaders to retreat since January. But Bakhmut has gained
political significance that seems to be stronger than
its military necessity. Since the fighting started last July, it has
become a sign of defiance for the Ukrainians. Even though the town is small and
in bad shape, the Russians are eager to take it. Since late summer, it has been
the main place where they have been fighting. For Ukraine, it's important for
pretty much the same reason: to keep Russia from getting a win that would boost
its morale and to wear down the Russian forces - the enemy - in the
process.
Russian forces have been slowly moving
forward thanks to their superior artillery, waves of convicts who were put to
work, and the use of special airborne assault units, which are now stationed on
the sides of the city. On April 25, a top member of the Ukrainian military's
intelligence service said that Ukraine only held 30% of the city. At that rate,
Russia could take Bakhmut in a few weeks.
In private, Ukraine's generals say that the
way the battle has gone has still shown that they were right to keep defending
Bakhmut. Some Ukrainian leaders say that Russia has lost ten times as many
soldiers around the town as it has won. Observers who aren't part of the group
say this is way too high. The number of people who die in Bakhmut has changed
over time, according to most recent data. But at a low point in January and
February, when Russian forces threatened to encircle the Ukrainian deployment,
the ratio probably hit parity. Now, it is almost one Ukrainian loss for every
Russian loss, which is a worrying situation given that Russia has more
soldiers.
Things got a little bit better in March, but
only after Ukraine sent in special troops to protect the north and south. The
last three weeks have been especially hard because Russian strength has been
getting worse at the same time. Andrei, an artilleryman in the 93rd Brigade,
one of the two responsible for defending Bakhmut, told the news magazine The
Economist that Russian troops can now blow up the two remaining Ukrainian roads
into the town, making it hard to re-supply.
He further explained that the way in from the north-west is now
impassable. The one to the south is constantly shelled.
A Victory in Name Only
The battle has not been won yet. In
Bakhmut, Ukraine has performed beyond anyone's wildest dreams, clinging to life
for much longer than analysts from the American intelligence community
anticipated it would. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary
group, which has been responsible for supplying the vast majority of the
Russian army's cannon fodder in Bakhmut, is publicly protesting that his forces
do not have enough ammo. It's possible that the Russian commanders are limiting
supply on purpose. It is not entirely obvious if they are acting in this manner
in preparation for a counteroffensive on the part of the Ukrainian military or
as a result of infighting between Mr. Prigozhin and the regular armed forces.
A spokesman for Ukraine's eastern command
named Serhiy Cherevaty indicated that Wagner is still the only significant
offensive force in Bakhmut. The vast bulk of the 30 to 40 waves of attacks
that occur daily there are carried out by their forces from locations that are
already established within the city. It is essential to take into account the
fact that Russian commanders in that region have not been reluctant to send
their soldiers into "meat-grinder attacks." They fire artillery
practically at their own men each time Ukrainian soldiers attack their
trenches, which indicates that Russia and Wagner truly don't care about their
soldiers at all.
Even if Russia were to succeed in capturing
Bakhmut, the victory would be nothing more than a hollow one. If Russia makes a
big deal out of capturing a regional town of questionable strategic relevance,
it may draw attention to how little progress the country has made after 10
months of combat. As a result of this process, it has wasted its
offensive potential, making it more susceptible to being attacked by the
Ukrainian Army. On May 9th, Mr. Putin will hold a spectacle in Red Square, and
it will only serve to highlight how little he has to show for his invasion.
Notes
Cordell, J. (2022, December
31). Putin Uses New Year Address for Wartime Rallying Cry to Russians. Retrieved
from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-new-year-message-west-is-using-ukraine-destroy-russia-2022-12-31/
Osborn, A. (2023, April 6). Explainer:
Bakhmut: Why Russia and Ukraine are Battling So Hard for One Small City.
Retrieved from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bakhmut-why-russia-ukraine-are-battling-so-hard-one-small-city-2023-03-14/
Quinn, A. (2023, May 3). Kremlin
Says Putin Survived Overnight Assassination Attempt. Retrieved from Yahoo
News: https://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-says-putin-survived-overnight-114602738.html
Smith, A., Fobes, G., &
De Luce, D. (2023, May 2). 20,000 Russians Killed in Ukraine Since December,
U.S. Says. Retrieved from Yahoo Life:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/20-000-russians-killed-ukraine-160816934.html
The Economist. (2023, May
3). No Victory Day: An Unhappy Anniversary for Vladimir Putin. Retrieved
from
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/05/03/an-unhappy-anniversary-for-vladimir-putin
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