Source: The Economist
Europe has everything it takes to snap the spine of Putin’s power structure, and they don’t really need America to whisper ceasefire lullabies while Russian missiles still fall on Ukrainian schools.
When you give a bear a cookie, don’t be surprised when it swallows the pantry. That’s exactly what President Trump is doing—handing Putin the cookie jar and watching him grin. By now it’s obvious that Trump likes Putin, maybe even idolizes him. And from the way his team is negotiating a so-called peace deal in Ukraine, it looks like America might start peeling off those tough sanctions that once had Russia gasping for economic air. But here’s the thing: even if Trump decides to cozy up to Putin and unbutton the sanctions belt, Europe must not follow America’s lead. In fact, Europe must do the exact opposite—it must tighten the screws on Putin harder than ever before.
Why? Because Putin’s regime is cracking. And when you see cracks in a dam that has held back a flood of oppression, you don’t patch it up—you blow it wide open.
First, let’s talk dollars and sense. Europe, not America, holds the economic key to Putin’s kingdom. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, trade between the EU and Russia totaled around €258 billion—compare that to the relatively puny $35 billion in U.S.-Russia trade. After sanctions, EU-Russia trade collapsed by more than 69%. Russia’s oil, gas, and military sectors lost billions. Russia’s car production has fallen over 60%. Its aviation industry is in shambles, and high-tech imports have dried up like an old Soviet well. America loosening sanctions won’t fix that. Only Europe can choke off the pipelines of cash that keep Putin’s war machine running.
Let’s face it—Putin’s economy is now a Frankenstein stitched together with Chinese knockoffs, Central Asian reroutes, and dreams of Soviet grandeur. But those black-market tricks won’t last. Without access to Western banks, ports, and insurance networks, Russia’s economy is walking with a limp. And Europe is the one holding the crutch. If it kicks that crutch away now, Putin falls.
Second—and more important—Europe can help bring down Putin himself. That’s not a pipe dream. That’s history waiting to repeat itself. Dictators don't die in bed; they fall under the weight of their own lies, their own bloodshed, and their own bankrupt treasuries. Think of Ceaușescu. Think of Gaddafi. The same fate waits for Putin, who now leads a country where dissent is criminal, elections are rigged, journalists are jailed or killed, and young men are dragged to war they don’t believe in.
The cracks in Putin’s power are already showing. His circle is shrinking. His economy is shrinking. His grip is weakening. His war is failing. Ukraine didn’t fall in three days. It’s been fighting for over three years. And Russians know it. That’s why over a million have fled the country since the invasion. That’s why Russian mothers protest silently, hiding their grief behind shuttered windows. That’s why even Putin’s inner circle whispers in fear. A cornered rat is dangerous, but it’s also vulnerable. And right now, Putin is cornered.
But then comes Trump, waltzing in like a peace fairy with an olive branch dipped in oil money. His team is reportedly asking Russian firms what sanctions they want lifted. They’re talking about removing bans on banks that finance oil exports. They want to unfreeze assets and loosen the leash. But why? Because Trump wants to play kingmaker in Eastern Europe? Because he sees himself as the hero who ended the war?
Let’s not pretend. This isn’t about peace. It’s about power. Trump sees an opportunity to score political points and maybe cut some deals. But appeasing Putin has never worked. In 2014, Russia took Crimea. The West responded weakly. In 2022, Russia tried to take all of Ukraine. What will happen in 2026 if we ease up now? Will Latvia be next? Poland? The past is a prophet—ignore it, and it repeats itself with a vengeance.
The only way to stop Putin is to bankrupt his war and shake the throne under him. Europe must not just keep the sanctions—it must sharpen them like a guillotine blade. Stop letting Russian oil ships dock in European ports. Stop insuring those shadowy tankers sailing under third-country flags. Ban European banks from processing any ruble-linked transaction. Freeze more oligarch assets. Squeeze the pressure points until the Kremlin chokes.
And don’t worry about Trump’s tantrums. Europe has played this game before. When Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord, Europe stayed in. When he fumbled NATO commitments, Europe doubled down. Europe can—and must—stand on its own spine. It doesn’t need Trump’s permission to protect its borders, its values, or its future.
Because here’s what happens if Europe blinks: Putin wins. He gets a lifeline. He rebuilds. He rearms. And the next invasion becomes only a matter of time. If Europe lifts sanctions now, it sends a message to every dictator watching: you can invade a neighbor, butcher civilians, and eventually get forgiven. That’s not diplomacy. That’s moral bankruptcy.
There’s an African proverb that says, “When the roots of a tree begin to decay, it spreads death to the branches.” Putin is that tree. His roots are rotting—economically, politically, morally. Letting up now only lets the poison spread. But if Europe pushes harder, those roots will snap. The branches will fall. And finally, Russians might plant something new in the ashes.
So, let Trump toast champagne with the Kremlin and play Santa to Russian billionaires. Let him wave a peace plan that smells like surrender. But Europe must bring the hammer down—and keep hammering until the walls of Putin’s palace crack like dry plaster.
After all, if Putin is planning for Christmas, Europe should give him the only gift he deserves: a one-way ticket to history’s trash bin, with sanctions so strong they make his ruble weep.
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