The Gulf’s New Frontier: Opportunities and Perils in Africa

 

The Gulf's vigorous pursuit of Africa heralds a crucial turning point in the continent's narrative, offering a dual-edged sword of unprecedented economic growth and the looming shadow of unforeseen, potentially perilous transformations.

The landscape of African geopolitics is experiencing a profound transformation, heralding a new era that pivots away from the legacy of the Cold War and the subsequent Chinese dominance. This shift is predominantly characterized by the rising influence of Gulf nations, notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. These nations are not mere passive players; their active involvement is reshaping both the economic and political contours of the African continent. The strategic movements by these Gulf states mark a departure from the bipolar competition of the Cold War era and the later period where China was the primary influencer in Africa's development narrative. This new dynamic signifies not only a change in the key players but also in the nature and scope of the interactions within the African geopolitical sphere.

During the Cold War period, African nations played a critical role, with their leaders leveraging the continent's strategic significance to extract aid, arms, and investments from either the Western bloc or the Soviet Union. This period was characterized by a chessboard of global powers, with African nations maneuvering for benefits from these superpowers. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there was a noticeable shift in focus towards China, especially for large-scale infrastructure projects. The resulting infrastructure boom across the continent symbolized China's growing influence. However, the contemporary African geopolitical landscape is markedly more complex and diversified. Emerging powers like Brazil, India, and Turkey have started to extend their influence across the continent, each bringing their unique approach and interests to the table. Amid these evolving dynamics, it is the rapid rise and assertive engagement of the Gulf States, particularly the UAE, that is most striking, signaling a new phase of engagement in Africa.

Saudi Arabia's inaugural Africa summit in November underscored its escalating interest in Africa, with the announcement of significant investment plans marking a new chapter in Saudi-African relations. Yet, it is the UAE's deepening engagement that overshadows others and draws considerable attention. In a striking demonstration of economic prowess, the UAE made investment commitments in Africa in 2022 that were sevenfold those of American firms, catapulting it to the position of the fourth-largest foreign direct investor on the continent. This investment trajectory, trailing only behind giants like China, the European Union, and the United States, underscores the UAE's strategic intent and its determination to establish a significant and lasting presence in Africa. The UAE's aggressive investment strategy not only challenges existing geopolitical equations but also sets the stage for a new era of economic and political engagement between the Gulf states and African nations.

Dubai-based DP World now operates ports in nine African countries. Similarly, Masdar, a UAE renewables firm, plans to invest $10 billion in Africa. Intriguingly, the UAE's trade with sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 and 2021 surpassed that of America, and Dubai has become a central hub for over 26,000 African businesses, favored for its secure property rights and relatively relaxed financial regulation.

The Gulf's influence is not merely economic; it extends to diplomatic realms. The UAE and Saudi Arabia were notably invited to the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, reflecting their rising global stature. From 2012 to 2022, Qatar and the UAE substantially increased their diplomatic presence in sub-Saharan Africa, and Saudi Arabia plans to expand its diplomatic network further. This expansion is timely, considering Africa's dire need for funding, particularly as Chinese loans have decreased, and Western aid has shifted focus due to the war in Ukraine. Some Western officials hope the Gulf countries can counterbalance Chinese influence, particularly in strategic sectors like mining.

However, the involvement of Gulf nations in Africa is fraught with risks. These dynastic autocracies are not known for their commitment to democracy or human rights. In contrast to China, which tends to value stability and has supported UN peacekeeping operations, the UAE's approach has raised concerns. It has been accused of supporting militias and warlords, contributing to instability in regions like Sudan. The UAE's alleged backing of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, despite their involvement in human rights abuses and the ongoing civil war, exemplifies this issue. This support appears part of a broader strategy to extend influence through militaristic means.

It is worth noting here that the involvement of Gulf states in Africa is a complex and multifaceted issue, presenting both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, the influx of investments from these nations offers a promise of economic growth and development, a prospect that many African countries find appealing. These investments often target key sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and technology, potentially driving significant economic advancement. However, this financial engagement is not without its political implications. Gulf states, in their pursuit of strategic interests, may engage in political maneuvers that could destabilize the already fragile socio-political fabric of some African regions. This concern is heightened by the propensity of some Gulf nations to align with particular political factions or leaders, thereby potentially exacerbating existing conflicts and tensions. African nations, therefore, find themselves in a delicate situation where they must carefully balance the benefits of economic development against the risks of becoming entangled in the geopolitical ambitions of their Gulf partners.

For Western countries, the expanding influence of Gulf states in Africa presents a conundrum. The traditional Western approach to Africa has often been predicated on a mix of aid, trade, and advocacy for democratic values and human rights. However, as Gulf states assert their presence in Africa, Western nations are cautioned against simply relegating their Africa policies to these new players, whose values and governance models often significantly differ from Western ideals. The challenge for Western countries lies in maintaining a strategic balance: they must find ways to collaborate with Gulf nations in promoting economic growth in Africa, while simultaneously upholding and advocating for the principles of stability, democracy, and human rights. This balancing act is crucial not only for the sake of maintaining Western influence in the region but also for ensuring that Africa's development does not come at the cost of eroding its democratic and human rights progress.

In essence, the Gulf states' growing engagement with Africa is a critical and defining chapter in the continent's history. This era brings with it the potential for substantial economic growth and development, offering African countries new avenues for progress and prosperity. However, it also carries significant risks. The involvement of Gulf nations could potentially lead to a reshaping of the African continent in ways that are currently unforeseen and could be potentially dangerous. The risk lies in the possibility of external interests overshadowing the internal needs and aspirations of African nations, leading to a new form of dependency and influence. As such, African leaders and their global partners must tread carefully, ensuring that this new chapter in African history is one of mutual benefit and sustainable development, rather than a repetition of past mistakes where external influence overshadowed the continent’s own path to growth and stability.