Echoes of Despair: Nigeria's Worsening Security Crisis Under President Tinubu

 

Nigeria's overreliance on sophisticated military hardware, while neglecting the underlying causes of insecurity, demonstrates a misplaced prioritization that fails to enhance the nation's long-term stability. Combating corruption, addressing poverty and improving education are not just social imperatives but strategic necessities for a more secure Nigeria, far beyond the scope of mere military solutions.

 In Nigeria, the degree of political concern for national security often seems to be measured by its proximity to the opulent mansions in Abuja, the nation's capital. This harsh reality was brought into sharp relief on January 2, 2024, when a father and his six daughters were kidnapped just outside the city. The incident sparked a rare outcry among high-ranking officials and a crowdfunding effort, even receiving support from a former minister. However, the response proved futile as the kidnappers murdered one of the girls, heightening their ransom demands. The wife of President Bola Tinubu publicly mourned the "devastating loss," yet such appalling incidents have become disturbingly commonplace, with little to no attention from the political class. In another recent incident in the south-east, 45 people were abducted and remain missing, eliciting scant reaction from the nation's leaders.

The north-east of Nigeria is the epicenter of violence, besieged by jihadist attacks linked to the Islamic State, targeting both the military and civilian populations. The north-west is plagued by kidnapping gangs, while a decades-long conflict between herders and farmers continues in the central region of the country. The severity of this crisis was underscored on Christmas Eve, when gunmen killed at least 160 people.

Upon his inauguration in May, President Tinubu declared security as his top priority. However, the situation has deteriorated since he took office. According to ACLED, a global conflict monitor, 2023 witnessed a record-breaking number of over 3,600 kidnappings, the highest ever, with a significant increase following Tinubu's inauguration. Furthermore, nearly 9,000 Nigerians were killed in conflicts last year.

Despite the Nigerian government's pronounced focus on augmenting defense and police expenditure, which comprises roughly 12% of the national budget, the effectiveness of this increased spending remains dubious. The defense budget experienced a 20% hike, a figure that, on the surface, suggests a substantial investment in security. However, this increase is significantly undermined by the country's soaring inflation rate, which stands at a staggering 29%. This high inflation rate effectively erodes the real value of the additional funds allocated to defense, diminishing their potential impact. Furthermore, the government's approach to security heavily leans towards the acquisition of sophisticated military hardware, exemplified by the purchase of high-end T-129 Turkish helicopters and Bell choppers from the United States. While these investments in advanced weaponry might project an image of a strengthened military capability, they do little to tackle the underlying roots of the nation's security challenges. Key issues such as widespread poverty, inadequate educational infrastructure, and deep-seated resentment towards the military – stemming from historical army atrocities – remain largely unaddressed. This disconnect between the government's defense strategy and the actual needs of the nation raises serious questions about the effectiveness of the current security policies in fostering a safer and more stable Nigeria.

The military's dependence on advanced weaponry and drones, while technologically impressive, has proven ineffective in preventing incidents like school kidnappings. Moreover, this strategy has led to grave errors, including civilian casualties, as seen in a recent drone strike in Kaduna state that killed at least 85 people. The police, potentially more effective with their human intelligence capabilities, should be at the forefront of domestic security, not an overstretched army deployed in all 36 of Nigeria's states.

Corruption further exacerbates these issues, particularly in defense spending. The defense sector, marked by its substantial budget allocations, has become a fertile ground for financial misconduct. As highlighted by Matthew Page, an expert from Chatham House, the defense budgets in Nigeria are especially susceptible to embezzlement, providing a convenient veil for financial misappropriation. This is further compounded by the existence of the "security votes" system, a mechanism that grants significant leeway in defense spending with minimal to no public accountability. Such a system not only lacks transparency but also actively facilitates corruption, with estimates suggesting that around $700 million is siphoned off annually through these channels. This alarming trend of financial impropriety in defense spending was notably prevalent under the previous administration and, worryingly, continues to persist under President Tinubu's leadership. The perpetuation of this practice under the current regime signals a troubling continuity of mismanagement and graft in a sector that critically needs reform. The ongoing failure to address these deep-rooted issues of corruption not only undermines the effectiveness of Nigeria's defense strategy but also erodes public trust and further complicates the already daunting task of ensuring national security.

Not only that, the contrast between government spending on security and personal luxuries is stark. Despite President Tinubu's partial removal of the petrol subsidy last year, debt servicing is expected to consume 61% of the revenue in 2024. The national assembly's approval of new SUVs for all 460 lawmakers, each costing over $150,000, highlights this disparity, especially in a country where over 80 million people live on less than $2.15 a day and kidnapping is a constant fear. Furthermore, the government's allocation of $31 million to upgrade presidential and vice-presidential accommodations contrasts sharply with the daily struggles of the majority of Nigerians.

Beyond Military Might

In plain terms, President Tinubu's current strategy for addressing Nigeria's security issues demands urgent reassessment. As noted above, the approach, largely a continuation of his predecessor Buhari's policies, has been insufficient in quelling the nation's unrest. This strategy, heavily reliant on military might, overlooks the underlying socio-economic and political factors fueling insecurity. As General Christopher Musa, chief of the defense staff, rightly recognizes, military efforts alone are inadequate for achieving lasting peace. His initiative to build hundreds of schools in the north-east is a commendable step towards a more inclusive and effective approach to national security. However, such progressive thinking seems to be an exception rather than the norm within the current administration. President Tinubu's approach needs a significant shift from a predominantly military-focused strategy to one that addresses the broader spectrum of issues contributing to the country’s instability.

An effective way to tackle Nigeria’s insecurity problem is for the government to redirect its focus and resources away from extravagant military procurements that have little impact on the core issues at hand. The current obsession with high-end weapon systems, while potentially enhancing the country's defense capabilities, does little to address the actual sources of unrest. Instead, the government should prioritize tackling corruption, which siphons off resources meant for development and erodes public trust in the state. Addressing poverty and poor education, which are breeding grounds for dissatisfaction and unrest, is equally crucial. Furthermore, the government needs to confront the issue of army atrocities that have often fueled resentment and anger among the populace. By focusing on these underlying issues, President Tinubu's administration can lay the groundwork for a more secure and stable Nigeria, moving beyond the superficial solutions that have dominated the country's security strategy so far.