Buhari's tenure cast a long shadow of economic and psychological distress upon Nigerians, leaving them stranded in a desert of hopelessness. As the thorny vines of corruption and economic trauma entwine the nation, will Bola Tinubu (whose presidency is still being contested due to massive vote rigging and other irregularities) be the steadfast gardener who uproots its destructive roots and cultivates a new era of transparency?
When Muhammadu Buhari became the leader of Nigeria in 2015, many Nigerians were hopeful and supportive of him. They thought he had a lot of goodwill to rely on and that the public mood was positive during his inauguration. Nigerians were tired of the previous leader, Goodluck Jonathan, who seemed indecisive during his time in office.
Buhari had been a military ruler before, and
some Nigerians believed he was honest and trustworthy, which was rare for
someone who had held public office in Nigeria before. His military background
was seen as important because of the growing threat of the Boko Haram
insurgency, which had become a serious problem under Jonathan's leadership.
Some people thought Buhari's determination to run for president four times
showed that he had something special to offer the country. In general, many Nigerians
at the time had high hopes for Buhari and believed he could bring positive
changes to Nigeria.
Buhari's journey from being a candidate with
lots of excitement around him to becoming a source of deep disappointment was
truly surprising. Many Nigerians had
high hopes for his government, but towards the end of his administration they
just can't wait for him to step down. This is one of the most remarkable
examples of a leader's reputation falling apart in the entire history of
Nigerian politics.
Nigerians saw this problem early on, within
the first few months of his administration. It was especially clear when he had
a tough time assembling a capable cabinet. This showed that Buhari didn't plan
well and wasn't ready for the challenges that come with being in power.
It is important to note that Buhari appeared
unwilling to fully embrace the role of uniter, despite the clear need for
political cohesion in the country at that time. During a speech at the United
States Institute of Peace (USIP) in July 2015, Buhari indicated a preference
for regions that had supported him in the elections, rather than treating all
constituencies equally as required. He pointed out that the regions that gave
him 97 percent of the votes deserved different treatment on certain matters
compared to those that gave him only 5 percent, citing these differences as
political realities. Notably, Buhari received the lowest percentage of votes in
the Igbo-dominated southeast region.
An objective evaluation would likely lead to
a conclusion of failure for the Buhari presidency. The economy, in particular,
is in a significantly worse state than when he assumed office eight years ago.
Nigeria had experienced a period of impressive growth between 2001 and 2014,
with an average of 7 percent growth, making it one of the top 15
fastest-growing economies globally. However, the situation took a downturn in
2015 as oil prices declined, security conditions worsened, macroeconomic
reforms were reversed, and economic policies became increasingly unpredictable.
Consequently, real per capita income declined during this period, reaching
levels not seen since the 1980s by the end of 2021.
Moreover, Buhari's fiscal management showed a
lack of discipline, characterized by an insatiable appetite for borrowing,
unparalleled in Nigeria's history. As evidence of this, with less than two
weeks remaining in his tenure, Buhari sought approval from the Senate for an
$800-million World Bank line of credit, further exacerbating the country's
debt, which now stands at an astonishing 77 trillion Naira.
In a similar vein, the security situation
took a troubling turn during Buhari's tenure, which is ironic considering the
initial confidence people had in his military background, believing it would
give him an advantage over his predecessor in this sector. Buhari himself
didn't shy away from highlighting this perceived advantage during his campaign.
However, since 2015, the state of public safety has worsened significantly,
leading to the loss of at least 63,000 Nigerian lives due to various acts of
both state and nonstate extrajudicial violence. The casualties have been
inflicted by Islamist insurgents, armed bandits, and kidnappers, making these
attacks the most deadly. Beyond the numbers, there's a prevailing sense of
lawlessness, with an increasing reliance on vigilante justice as a sign of
public frustration towards law enforcement and the judicial system.
Corruption has experienced a worsening trend
as well. A Nigerian newspaper bemoaned the prevalence of cronyism and nepotism
in Buhari's key appointments, leading to a detrimental fusion with government
agencies working at odds, thus fostering corruption. Simultaneously, the
excessive interference from the office of the Attorney-General of the
Federation and Minister of Justice has seemingly obstructed the efforts of the
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the state's anti-graft agency.
The state's pardoning of high-ranking public officials who were previously
convicted of corruption has not only tarnished Buhari's reputation as a symbol
of transparency but has also reinforced the perception among the public that
his commitment to transparency is merely superficial rhetoric. This ironic
outcome may have unwittingly validated Buhari's private apprehensions, as he
once shared with a prominent US diplomat, about the enduring legacy of
corruption in Nigeria surpassing even the legacy of colonialism.
Saying that Buhari is responsible for
Nigeria's failures doesn't mean holding him solely accountable for all of the
country's issues. He symbolizes the prevailing political culture, and in many
ways, he simply worked with the circumstances he inherited. Nonetheless, it's
essential to acknowledge that no single leader, even someone more
intellectually gifted and administratively astute than Buhari, could have been
expected to entirely resolve Nigeria's complex socioeconomic problems in just
eight years. The challenges are deeply rooted and intricate.
Nigeria's economy heavily relies on a single
sector, making it difficult to detach from its established foundations.
Furthermore, no individual can be blamed entirely for the fluctuations in the
global oil market, the reported theft of crude oil on a massive scale, or the
frequent collapse of the national power grid (which happened 99 times during
Buhari's presidency). These issues have a broader context beyond a single
leader's control. However, it is valid to argue that Buhari could have done
more with the resources at his disposal. Perhaps he will always regret not
seizing the opportunity to transform society when he had the support of the
public during the early days of his presidency.
Overall, Buhari's failure can be attributed
to his lack of governing capabilities. Firstly, he never presented a coherent
economic vision throughout his tenure. Despite being previously ousted for his
perceived arrogance and self-proclaimed knowledge of problems and solutions, he
rarely sought advice from the abundant technical and economic expertise
available to him. Instead, he seemed trapped in an outdated command-and-control
mindset of the 1970s, unable to adapt to the demands of the present era and
unable to address this shortcoming. Interestingly, his ascent to the presidency
might have fulfilled his primary objective: seeking redemption for what he saw
as an unjust removal from power during his earlier stint as the head of a
military junta. Consequently, his second coming to power appeared more
motivated by personal vindication than a genuine commitment to public welfare.
Buhari's failure can also be attributed, in
part, to his inability to establish an emotional connection with the Nigerian
public. Unlike Jonathan, who appeared eager to please and engage with the
people (Jonathan spent as much time on his knees as he did on his feet),
Buhari's aloofness made him susceptible to accusations of insensitivity. His
frequent expressions of longing to retire to his country home in Daura, Katsina
State, may have come from a place of humility, but it only reinforced the
perception that he was ill-equipped for the responsibilities of leadership and
content to simply wait out his time in office. Not only that, Buhari's rise to
power was largely facilitated by Bola Tinubu's political machinery, and this
contributed to the belief that he was more of a sectional leader than a
unifying national figure. He faced criticism for exacerbating the
ethnoreligious divisions between Nigeria's Christian and Muslim communities.
Perhaps the most significant lesson from
Buhari's presidency for Nigerians is that a leader perceived as personally
incorruptible can preside over an administration plagued by corruption and
incompetence. This insight raises questions about the upcoming Bola Tinubu
government and whether a leader with a reputation for corruption can still
oversee a relatively clean and competent administration.
In Comes Bola Tinubu - Can He Do it?
Tinubu's ambitions to establish a $1 trillion
economy within eight years may encounter significant challenges, primarily due
to the persistent power shortages in the country. The current national grid's
production capacity of 4,500 megawatts leaves millions of Nigerians in
darkness. Moreover, Nigeria's state authority relies heavily on control and
subsidies to maintain low prices, appeasing vested interests but hindering
progress.
Tinubu's initial policies have shown promise,
such as the removal of fuel subsidies and allowing the country's currency, the
naira, to float in the currency market. However, addressing the issue of
insecurity will be equally complex. When Buhari assumed power in 2015, many
hoped he would effectively tackle armed groups, but violence has since spread
beyond the northeast. In an effort to address this, Tinubu has taken steps to
replace security chiefs and the head of police. Yet, significant obstacles
remain.
The military itself operates within an
entrenched patronage system, making reforms challenging. Furthermore, some
political analysts suggest that armed groups in the Nigeria Delta, involved in
large-scale oil theft, receive support from certain politicians. Additionally,
kidnapping rings in the northwest were originally formed as crime-fighting
vigilante groups backed by state governments, adding further complexity to the
security situation.
Tinubu will undoubtedly face critical
judgment based on how effectively he addresses the networks of corruption and
criminality plaguing Nigeria. Concerns have arisen about his commitment to
tackling these issues, especially given his association with Buhari's ruling
party and the extensive political, religious, and tribal networks that played a
significant role in his election victory. Many fear that these deep-rooted
connections might create a sense of indebtedness to the very entities that have
contributed to the country's challenges.
To address the rampant oil theft in the
Nigeria Delta, Tinubu has proposed the establishment of a surveillance unit
dedicated to safeguarding oil pipelines. Additionally, he aims to create
"anti-terrorist battalions" and special forces to combat jihadists
and armed gangs responsible for the rising insecurity in the country.
Furthermore, he intends to involve the military in community initiatives to
"win hearts and minds," attempting to foster a sense of trust and
cooperation.
However, skeptics question whether these
plans will be sufficient to dismantle the well-established networks of
corruption and criminality. Tinubu's suspension of the head of the financial
and economic crimes agency (EFCC) indicates some willingness to address
corruption, but thus far, he has not presented a comprehensive anti-graft
strategy. Moreover, the lack of a strong track record in fighting corruption
raises doubts about his determination to enact transformative change in this
area.
Part of the uncertainty surrounding Tinubu's
approach to corruption stems from his history as a politician. His association
with a powerful political machine, which played a crucial role in his election
victory, raises concerns about potential entanglements and compromises. It
remains to be seen whether Tinubu can maintain independence from these
influential networks and focus solely on the interests of the Nigerian people.
Additionally, Tinubu's public statements on
corruption have been lackluster, lacking the memorable and resolute stance
needed to inspire confidence in his commitment to combatting the issue.
Observers have noted that his body language does not convey a revolutionary
determination to root out corruption.
As Nigerians and the international community
wait to see how Tinubu's presidency unfolds, they hold hope that he will
prioritize the fight against corruption and work diligently to eradicate
criminal networks that have long hindered the nation's progress. The path he
chooses to take will determine not only his legacy but also the fate of
Nigeria's future. The nation awaits with bated breath, hoping for a leader who
can rise above the challenges and lead the country towards a brighter and more
prosperous tomorrow.
Notes
Dzirutwe, M. (2023, June
27). Analysis: Nigeria's Tinubu Faces Daunting Hurdles After Reform Sprint.
Retrieved from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-tinubu-faces-daunting-hurdles-after-reform-sprint-2023-06-27/
Erumebor, W. (2023, February
6). Nigeria in 2023: Bridging the Productivity Gap and Building Economic
Resilience. Retrieved from Brookings:
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/nigeria-in-2023-bridging-the-productivity-gap-and-building-economic-resilience/
Orjinmo, N. (2023, May 21). Nigeria's
Muhammadu Buhari Leaves Legacy of Kidnapping, Inflation and Debt. Retrieved
from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65637553
Obadare, E. (2023, May 22). Why
Buhari Failed. Retrieved from Council on Foreign Relations:
https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-buhari-failed
The World Bank. (2022,
February). Nigeria Poverty Assessment 2022: A Better Future for All
Nigerians: . Retrieved from
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730003152232753/pdf/P17630107476630fa09c990da780535511c.pdf
No comments:
Post a Comment