As Sudan Explodes: Revealing the Hidden Realities of the Current War in Sudan

 

The world is gradually becoming  a powder keg, with constant wars in Sudan and elsewhere serving as the spark that could ignite the explosive mixture

Seeing the bloodshed in Sudan is like seeing a game of Quidditch go horribly wrong. Simply put, in Sudan, the rules of war are no more important than the rules of Quidditch, a game based on the Harry Potter books in which players can use force against each other to try to get the Quaffle or stop other players from scoring a goal. As two crazy generals fight for power, citizens have been killed, diplomats have been attacked, and patients have been kicked out of a hospital so that soldiers can use it as a fortress. The fight that started on April 15 could be the first step toward a full-scale civil war. But there's an even worse way to look at it. Sudan has been at war with itself for most of the time since it became independent in 1956. This week's chaos shows a worldwide problem that doesn't get enough attention: the length of war is getting longer.

During the middle of the 1980s, the average continuing conflict had been raging for approximately 13 years. By the year 2021, that number had increased to twenty. Since the Arab spring in 2011, a new wave of wars has begun, and the number of people who have been killed in battle has increased, going against a long-term trend toward greater global peace. It is difficult to get an accurate count of how many people have died. The majority of casualties are lost not in the course of the war itself but as a result of its aftereffects, which include increased hunger and a weakened immune system of the war refugees. It is estimated that 600,000 people lost their lives as a result of Ethiopia's recent crushing of the breakaway province of Tigray. This number is more than the number of deaths that occurred in Ukraine. Part of the reason for this is that the government barred aid to the starving victims of wars. In the past ten years, the number of people who have been compelled to flee from their homes has roughly doubled, reaching over 100 million worldwide. And even while the world's economy is growing, countries that are unlucky enough to experience war and violence quickly fall further and more behind.

Impunity Rules: Blood, Sweat, and Diamonds

One explanation for the lengthening of  wars and civil conflicts is that their complexity is increasing, making it more difficult to find lasting solutions to conflicts. The majority are internecine conflicts taking place in underdeveloped countries. In many cases, there are many factions of combatants, and peace can only be maintained if all of them are appeased. Between the years 2001 and 2010, around five nations per year were affected by two or more simultaneous conflicts; as of now, this number has increased to fifteen. There are dozens of armed factions in Myanmar and Congo. Not only that, it would be extremely challenging to bring peace to the two countries.  And the percentage of civil wars that include forces from other countries has increased by a factor of 12 since 1991, when it was first recorded. As a result of the lower costs that are incurred by foreign meddlers (their own cities are not destroyed), there is less of a motivation for them to negotiate peace for the warring countries.

Criminal activity is a further factor. Nearly all civil wars break out in countries plagued by corruption, which makes power an easy way to get fortune and encourages those without morals to kill for it. One of the feuding warlords in Sudan, for example, is said to have made a fortune trafficking gold and mercenaries, and the other warlord purportedly commands an army while also running a business empire. In the meantime, the globalization of criminal networks makes it simpler for rebel groups to traffic in illegal substances or to launder diamonds  that have been stolen.

The most worrisome element, on the other hand, is the earth's changing climate. Even while it does not directly cause war, the likelihood of it occurring is increased. Farmers who lose their land as a result of natural disasters like droughts or floods frequently relocate to areas that historically belonged to members of other ethnic groups. An NGO tallied 70 confrontations in just one region of Mali, the most of which were sparked by disagreements over land ownership and grazing rights. The Sahel is an arid expanse located below the Sahara desert. As a result of climate change, livelihoods have been severely affected in this region, making it easy for jihadist groups to attract new members. They promise that this will result in the recovery of their converts' pasture or farmland and make the promise of divine justice. There is currently a concentration of civil wars in nations that are hot and poor. As the temperature continues to get hotter, the belt of bloodshed that circles the equator will undoubtedly get broader.

In addition to all of these problems, there is currently a climate of impunity that exists. If Russia is able to decapitate captives and China is able to conduct crimes against humanity in Xinjiang, then lesser bullies may come to the conclusion that international law can be ignored without fear of repercussions. Undoubtedly, a great number of people are flouting  international laws, from the blood-stained savannas of Burkina Faso to the dungeons of torture in Syria. The United States of America is preoccupied by a competition between superpowers, and the United Nations is hampered by the vetoes of both Moscow and Beijing. Even if outsiders could conceive of a feasible means to decrypt Sudan's government, those massive resources that are currently being used to protect Ukraine will never be used to decrypt Sudan's government.

 

The Long Road

It's hard to make peace, but it's not impossible. On the short term, it is often best to start unofficial talks long before both sides are ready to talk publicly. That approach worked in Northern Ireland and South Africa.  Peace agreements seem to last longer when more women and civil-society groups are involved, and communication via videoconferencing means that they don't have to take dangerous trips to be there. Sometimes it's also important to include awful people in the peace-making exercise, or else they might go back to fighting. Justice and peace can sometimes be at odds with each other in a painful way. The first one says that war criminals should go to jail, while the second one might say that they should get jobs in the cabinet. Lastly, because every conflict is different and there is no one way to make peace that works everywhere, it is good to try different peace-making strategies. Donors who wanted to help rebuild Liberia after the war, for instance,  gave money to many different projects. It turned out that making the cops less aggressive made people less likely to rebel.

Long-term, the most important things to do to support peace are to help weak states build better institutions and to stop climate change and help people adapt to it. These are big jobs that could take decades to finish. But the alternative is a world where people live short lives in hot, poor places and wars last for a long time.

 

 

Notes

Britannica. (2023). Arab Spring Pro-Democracy Protests. Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Spring

Cornell College. (n.d.). Quidditch Rules. Retrieved from https://www.cornellcollege.edu/intramurals/PDFs/Quidditch%20Rules.pdf%20for%20IM.pdf

Evans , M. S., & Munslow, B. (2021). Climate Change, Health, and Conflict in Africa’s Arc of Instability. Perspect Public Health, 141(6), 338–341.

Harding, A. (2023, April 20). Sudan Fighting: Why it Matters to Countries Dorldwide. Retrieved from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65338247

Pilling , D., & Schipani , A. (2023, Janusry 15). War in Tigray May Have Killed 600,000 People, Peace Mediator Says. Retrieved from Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/2f385e95-0899-403a-9e3b-ed8c24adf4e7

Rumpf-Whitten, S. (2023). President Biden Calls Civil War in Sudan 'Unconscionable' as US Embassy Personnel Evacuate. Retrieved from Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/world/president-biden-calls-civil-war-sudan-unconscionable-us-embassy-personnel-evacuate

The Economist. (2023, April 19). The Curse of Civil War. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/04/19/in-sudan-and-beyond-the-trend-towards-global-peace-has-been-reversed

Thibault, F. B. (2023, April 21). What Role Do Outside Players Have in the War in Sudan? Retrieved from Aljazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2023/4/21/what-role-do-outside-players-have-in-the-war-in-sudan