The Jackals of Politics: A True Story of Nigeria’s Election

Fellow Nigerians, choose this day whom you will vote for.

Nigeria made a laudable step forward in 1999 when it became a democracy. However, sometimes when you make a step forward you step in shit. The country will elect the next president on March 28, when it goes to the polls.¹ As has been the case in Nigeria since its independence in 1960, the new president will face numerous problems: from jihadist insurgency and rampant corruption. For Nigerians, these problems are so large that, if left unchecked, can rip the country apart.

Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy,² and hence this election will be significant for the continent. It is worth bearing in mind that this election would be the most important since the country’s civil war 40 years ago and, perhaps, since its restoration of civilian rule in 1999. But there is one problem: on the election day, Nigerians must pick between the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, who has not only proved an utter failure but also has blood in his hands (since he allowed Boko Haram to fester, leading to the death of thousands of Nigerians); and Muhammadu Buhari, a former military leader who also has blood in his hands. For a country in which the overlap between politics and corruption is an open secret, these candidates are the standard bearers of a broken political system – a political system that makes all Nigeria’s problems even more intractable. A quick glance at their report cards will validate this fact.

Let’s begin with President Jonathan, who belong to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – a political party that has governed Nigeria since 1999. Obviously, he was favored by his first name, Goodluck, given that he stumbled into the Presidency on the death of Yar’Adua – his predecessor – in 2010.³ He had been the country’s president since 2010 and has shown little willingness to tackle endemic corruption. He fired Lamido Sanusi - the country’s central bank governor – just because he reported that $20 billion had been stolen from the country’s coffers.⁴ Much of the northern part of the country has been in flames since 2010 due to the activities of Boko Haram – a jihadist group that claims to have established its caliphate in the region. Until last week, when Nigerian soldiers reclaimed some territories from Boko Haram,⁵ Jonathan has done nothing commendable to stop their insurgency. As of January this year, as much as 18,000 Nigerians has lost their lives from several brutal attacks by Boko Haram. In addition, more than 1.5 million people have either fled their homes or were displaced due to the group’s activities.⁶ Note that Boko Haram’s insurgency occurs mainly in northern Nigeria, which is far from President Jonathan’s southern political heartland. As such, it affects mainly those Nigerians who are the indigenes of northern Nigeria and who are more likely to vote for Buhari, the opposition party’s flag bearer.

President Jonathan do deserve some credit though. He did a good job in handling the ebola virus epidemics – an epidemics that killed more than 4,500 people in West Africa last year, mostly in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia.⁷ Nigerian economy is booming and growing faster than most African economies – an achievement that I am skeptical about giving him the credit. In any case, the current collapse of oil prices will eventually temper the boom. In spite of the high economic growth recorded by the country, poverty has increased under Jonathan’s rule, which implies that the prosperity has not been broadly shared. Life expectancy in Nigeria has also decreased, with more Nigerians dying eight years younger than their poorer neighbors such as Ghana.⁸

Choosing the lesser evil

I will not be surprised if Nigerian voters send President Jonathan packing. They have ample reasons to do that. The All Progressive Congress (APC), the opposition party, has a real chance of winning through the ballot box if Nigeria conducts a free and fair election. Mr. Buhari, their candidate, was an ex-general who came to power in a coup three decades ago. His rule was mercifully short, as well as nasty and brutish. He implemented a program called the War Against Indiscipline (WAI). Many Nigerians still remember WAI as a praiseworthy attempt by Buhari to fight the endemic graft which was preventing Nigeria’s development. Under the program, he ordered whip-wielding soldiers to “discipline” the notoriously unruly Nigerians, forcing them to form neat queues at bus stops. Civil servants were publicly humiliated by being forced to do “frog jumps” if they were late to work. He also implemented a destructive economic policy: He tried to fix prices by banning “unnecessary” imports instead of letting the currency depreciate in the face of a trade deficit. This led to the closure of many businesses and, of course, to the loss of many jobs.⁹ He expelled 700,000 migrants, believing that this would create jobs for Nigerians. His government banned political meetings and curbed free speech. He made an extensive use of secret tribunals, executed people for crimes that were not capital offenses and detained thousands of Nigerians.¹⁰ On the positive side, he was tough on security and, because he was a vanguard of discipline, he retains a rare reputation for honesty among Nigerian politicians, and Nigerians in general.

It is worth pondering one question: given his record, should Buhari be offered another chance? A lot of Nigerians believe he deserves a second chance, mainly because of his honesty and his record of fighting corruption. For instance, Buhari is a sandal-wearing ascetic in a country where both political ministers and religious pastors wear wristwatches and shoes worth many times their annual salaries. Besides, only a few Nigerians will question his commitment to democracy because he had willingly accepted defeat when he lost two presidential elections. In addition, when compared to President Jonathan, he would do a better job of running the country, particularly in defeating Boko Haram. One reason is that he will have greater legitimacy among villagers whose help he will need to isolate the insurgents, since he is a northerner and a Muslim.¹¹ He is also more likely to win the respect of the country’s demoralized army because he was a retired general.

Broadly speaking, I am relieved not to have a vote in this coming election. But as one of the concerned Nigerians in diaspora, I love my home country and feel for my fellow Nigerians. While I will not endorse neither Jonathan nor Buhari (none of them meets my expectations of a good leader), my opinion is that my fellow Nigerians at home should search their conscience and choose the lesser of the two evils.

References

¹BBC News (2015): Nigeria Elections – Buhari Rules Out Boko Haram Talks. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31645455

²Friedman U. (2014): How Nigeria Became Africa’s Largest Economy Overnight. The Atlantic. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/04/how-nigeria-became-africas-largest-economy-overnight/360288/

³Al Jazeera and Agencies (2010): Nigeria’s President Yar’ Adua Dies. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2010/05/20105523627997165.html

⁴Kay C., Bala-Gbogo E., & Mbachu D. (2014): Nigerian President Suspends Sanusi After Missing Oil Claims. Bloomberg Business. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-20/nigerian-central-bank-governor-sanusi-suspended-by-president

⁵BBC News (2015): African Allies Claim Gains Against Boko Haram. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31493150

⁶Nigeria’s Election: The Least Awful. (2015, January). The Economist. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21642168-former-dictator-better-choice-failed-president-least-awful

⁷BBC News (2014): Ebola Crisis: Nigeria Declared Free of Virus. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29685127

⁸Nigeria’s Election, op. cit., para. 5.

⁹BBC News (2003): “Honest” General Wanted to Rule Nigeria. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/2639165.stm

¹⁰Nigeria’s Election, op. cit., para. 7.

¹¹Ibid