Artificial Intelligence May Not Take Your Job After All

 

 

While artificial intelligence will automate certain tasks and job functions, the human capacity for creativity, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence ensures that many jobs will remain relevant and irreplaceable.

 With the rise of programs converting text to convincing videos and the imminent integration of OpenAI's bots into consumer products, the boundaries of artificial intelligence’s (AI's) impact on daily life are expanding rapidly. The age of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has well and truly come. OpenAI's robots, which use technology called large-language-model (LLM), got things going in November. Now, hardly a day goes by without a new development that blows our minds. A fake Drake and The Weeknd sang on a song made by AI that recently shook the music business. Content made by programs that turn text into video is pretty compelling. Soon, customer services like Expedia, Instacart, and OpenTable will connect to OpenAI's bots. This will let people order food or book a vacation by typing text into a box. A presentation that was recently leaked, which is said to have been made by a Google worker, shows that the tech giant is worried about how easy it is for competitors to make progress. There will likely be a lot more to come.

The advancement of AI brings up a lot of important questions. The question that is easiest to answer is often one of the most important: What exactly does this imply for the state of the economy? A great number of people have really high hopes. According to recent research conducted by the bank Goldman Sachs, widespread AI adoption could eventually drive a 7% or almost $7trn increase in annual global GDP over a ten-year period. This growth would take place over the course of the next decade. Academic studies suggest a gain of three percentage points in yearly labor-productivity growth in enterprises that implement the technology. This would represent a significant increase in salaries that would be compounded over a number of years. According to a research by Tom Davidson of Open Philanthropy, an organization that makes grants, there is a greater than 10% possibility that explosive growth could occur at some point in this century. Explosive growth in this regard is defined as increases  in global output of more than 30% a year. A handful of economists have entertained the idea that global earnings could one day reach an endless level.

However, financial markets seem to indicate results that are rather less dramatic. In the past year, the performance of the share prices of companies active in AI has lagged behind that of the worldwide average, despite the fact that these share prices have increased during the past few months. The interest rates are still another piece of the puzzle. If people believed that technological advancement was going to make everyone affluent tomorrow, interest rates would increase since there would be less of a need to save money. According to studies conducted by Basil Halperin of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and colleagues, inflation-adjusted rates and eventual GDP growth are closely connected with one another. However, ever since the AI hype began in November 2022, long-term interest rates have been on the decline. They continue to be quite low when compared to previous standards. In plain terms, financial markets are not expecting a high probability of AI-induced growth acceleration, on at least a 30-to-50-year time horizon.

To figure out which group of researchers in this area is right, it helps to look at how technology has changed in the past. This is good news for businesses. For one thing, it's hard to say that a single new tool has ever changed the economy a lot, either for the better or for the worse. Even the industrial revolution of the late 1700s, which many people at the time think was caused by the invention of the spinning jenny, was really caused by a number of different things happening at the same time. These included increasing use of coal, firmer property rights, the emergence of a scientific ethos, and much more besides.

 In the 1960s, Robert Fogel wrote about the railroads in the United States. This work would later win him the Nobel Prize in economics. Many people thought that the railroad changed America's future, changing it from a farming society to an industrial powerhouse. Fogel found that it had a very small effect because it replaced technologies, like canals, that would have done just as well. If railways had never been invented, America would have hit the same level of income per person on March 31, 1890, instead of January 1, 1890.

No one can say for sure where AI, a system that is inherently unpredictable, will take humans. Runaway growth is not impossible, and neither is a standstill in technology. But you can still think about what might happen. And, at least so far, it looks like Fogel's railways will be a good guide. Think about monopolies, labor markets, and productivity.

A new technology" can sometimes give vast economic power to a small group of people. John D. Rockefeller won at processing oil, and Henry Ford won at making cars. Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are two of the most powerful people in the world today. Many experts think that the AI business will soon make a lot of money. In a recent paper, analysts at Goldman predict that, in the best case, generative AI could add about $430 billion to annual global enterprise-software sales. Their math is based on the idea that each of the world's 1.1 billion office workers will buy a few AI gizmos for a total of $400.

Any company would be happy to get some of this money. But $430 billion doesn't change the big picture of the economy. Assume that all of the income goes into profits, which isn't likely, and that all of these profits are made in the U.S., which is a little more likely. Even so, the ratio of the country's business profits before taxes to its GDP would rise from 12% to 14%. That is a lot higher than the long-term average, but not any higher than in the second quarter of 2021.

One organization—possibly Open AI—might receive these proceeds. When an industry has significant fixed costs or when it is difficult to switch to competitors, monopolies frequently develop. Rockefeller's oil was the only option available to customers, and they were unable to make their own. There are certain monopolistic traits in generative AI. One of Open AI's chatbots, GPT-4, reportedly cost more than $100 million to train, which is money that not many businesses have on hand. A lot of proprietary knowledge about the data used to train the models also exists, in addition to user feedback.

However, there are slim chances of one business dominating the entire AI sector. It is more likely that a small number of large businesses will compete with one another, as is the case in the grocery, search engine, and airline industries. Since all AI products employ the same models, none are truly unique. This makes switching from one to another easier for a customer. Additionally, the models' computing power is comparatively generic. Since a lot of the code and helpful hints are publicly available online, amateurs can create their own models—often with startlingly impressive outcomes.

In general, generative AI doesn't seem to have any systemic moats at the moment. A similar conclusion is drawn in the current leak that is allegedly from Google: The barrier to entry for training and experimentation has decreased from the complete output of a major research organization to one individual, one evening, and a powerful laptop. A few generative-AI companies now have a market value of over $1 billion. The largest corporation to date to benefit the most from the new AI era is not even an AI firm. Data center income is growing at Nvidia, a computing firm that powers AI models.

 Doomsday or comedy show?

Despite the possibility that generative AI won't produce a new class of robber barons, for many people, that is still a cold comfort. They are more worried about their own financial future, particularly whether their job will disappear. There are many dreadful forecasts. Numerous sources predict that at least 10% of the work tasks performed by at least 80% of the US workforce could be impacted by the introduction of LLMS. According to studies from several periodicals, the professions of legal services, accounting, and travel agencies  are among those most likely to experience disruption.

Economists have made doomsday forecasts in the past.  Many people in the 2000s questioned how outsourcing might affect jobs in developed nations. In a widely read report published in 2013, two Oxford University researchers predicted that technology would eliminate 47% of American jobs over the next few years. Others argued that even in the absence of widespread unemployment, there would be a hollowing out of the labor market, where rewarding, well-paying occupations would vanish and be replaced with mindless, poorly paid jobs.

What eventually happened caught everyone off guard. The average unemployment rate in the rich countries has roughly decreased by half during the past ten years. The proportion of people in working age who are employed is at an all-time high. The least unemployment is seen in nations with strong levels of automation and robots, such Japan, Singapore, and South Korea. According to a recent analysis by the American Bureau of Labor Statistics, jobs identified as at risk from new technologies did not exhibit any general tendency toward notably rapid job loss in recent years. Evidence of hollowing out, if any, is mixed. The 2010s saw an increase in work satisfaction metrics. The poorest Americans have had faster pay growth than the richest Americans throughout the majority of the last ten years.

It might be different this time. Chegg, a company that provides homework help, recently saw its share price drop by 50% when it acknowledged ChatGPT was having an impact on their new customer growth rate. Big IT corporation IBM's CEO stated that the company anticipates pausing hiring for positions that AI may eventually replace. But are they early warning signals of an impending tsunami? Maybe not.

Imagine a scenario in which more than 50% of the tasks covered by AI are automated. Or consider that job losses are based on the percentage of jobs that are mechanized across the entire economy. According to estimates provided by various media, this would in either case result in a net loss of  about 15% or more of American jobs. Some people might relocate to a sector like hospitality where there is a dearth of workers. However, a significant increase in the unemployment rate would undoubtedly follow—possibly matching the 15% briefly attained in America during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

However, this scenario is unlikely to occur because history indicates that job destruction occurs far more gradually. To replace human operators, the automated telephone switching system was created in 1892. The Bell System didn't set up its first fully automated office until 1921. The number of American telephone operators increased even after this landmark, reaching a peak of about 350,000 in the middle of the 20th century. Despite the invention of automation nine decades prior, the profession did not (largely) go out of existence until the 1980s. In fewer than 90 years, AI will completely transform the work market: LLMS are simple to use, and many experts are surprised by how quickly people have adapted ChatGPT into their daily lives. However, the same factors that led to the delayed uptake of technology in previous organizations still hold true now.

There are  plenty of other published evidence whose argument in this area focuses on regulation. The pace of technical advancement is typically pitifully slow in sectors of the economy where the government is heavily involved, such as education and healthcare. Absence of competition dampens motivation to progress. Additionally, governments may have objectives for public policy that conflict with increased effectiveness, such as maximizing employment levels. Additionally, unionization is more prevalent in these industries, and unions are effective at preventing job losses.

There are numerous examples of these. Although there is technology to partially or completely replace train drivers, for instance, they are nevertheless paid close to twice the national median on London's publicly run Underground network. Passengers  must repeatedly fill out paper forms for government organizations with their personal information. Real-life cops are still employed in San Francisco, the epicenter of the AI boom, to control traffic during rush hour.

 When Bots Go Wild

 The majority of AI-threatened jobs are in heavily regulated sectors. According to published evidence, 14 of the top 20 occupations most vulnerable to AI are teaching positions, with foreign-language instructors near the top and geographers in a slightly stronger position. However, only the most courageous government would replace teachers with AI. Think of the headlines. The same holds true for police officers and anti-crime AI. The fact that Italy has already temporarily blocked ChatGPT over privacy concerns, and France, Germany, and Ireland are reportedly mulling the option, demonstrates how concerned governments are about the job-destroying effects of artificial intelligence.

Perhaps, over time, governments will permit the replacement of some jobs. However, the delay will allow the economy to continue doing what it does best: creating new categories of jobs as others are eliminated. By reducing production costs, new technology can increase demand for products and services, thereby boosting jobs that are difficult to automate. The conclusion of a report published in 2020 by MIT's David Autor and colleagues was startling. Approximately 60% of American jobs did not exist in 1940.  The year 2000 saw the addition of fingernail technician to the census. Five years ago, solar photovoltaic electrician was introduced. The AI economy will likely create occupations that are currently unimaginable.

Small labor-market effects are expected to have a small impact on productivity—the third element. Electricity was first used in companies and homes in America near the end of the 19th  century. However, there was no production boom until the end of World War I. In the 1970s, the personal computer was invented. This time, the productivity surge came faster—but it still felt slow at the moment. An economist named Robert Solow famously said in 1987 that the computer age was everywhere except the productivity statistics.

The world is still waiting for a spike in production due to recent advances. Smartphones have been widely used for a decade, billions of people have access to ultrafast internet, and many professionals now work from home when it is convenient for them. Official polls reveal that well over a tenth of American employees now work for companies that use AI of some kind, while unofficial studies show even higher numbers. However, global productivity growth remains subdued.

AI has the potential to significantly increase productivity in various industries. Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University and colleagues investigated customer-service representatives in their research paper. The availability of an AI tool increases the number of issues handled per hour by 14% on average. Researchers may also become more efficient as a result of GPT-X, which may provide them with a limitless number of almost-free research helpers. Others expect that AI will eliminate administrative inefficiencies in health care, hence lowering costs.

However, there are many things that AI cannot do. Construction and farming, which account for around 20% of the rich-world GDP, are two examples. A LLM is useless to someone harvesting asparagus. It may be useful to a plumber who is fixing a leaky tap: a widget could recognize the tap, diagnose the problem, and recommend remedies. However, the plumber must still perform the physical labor. So it's difficult to imagine blue-collar labor being significantly more productive in a few years. The same is true for industries where human-to-human contact is an essential component of the service, such as hospitality and medical care.

AI is also powerless to address the single most significant impediment to rich-world productivity growth: misfiring planning systems. People cannot live and work where they are most efficient when city sizes are limited and housing expenses are high. No matter how many amazing new ideas your society has, they are rendered functionally useless if they are not built in a timely manner. It is up to governments to silence not in my back yard (NIMBYS) protesters. Technology is both here and there. The same is true for electricity, where permitting and infrastructure maintain costs unbearably high.

It equally possible that the AI economy will become less productive. Consider some current technology. Smartphones provide for immediate communication, but they may also be a source of distraction. Email keeps you linked 24 hours a day, seven days a week, which might make it difficult to concentrate. According to the best available research, the more time spent on email each day, the poorer perceived productivity.  Some managers now worry that working from home, which was once viewed as a productivity booster, provides too many individuals with an excuse to slack off.

The use of generative AI may reduce productivity. What if AI can generate entertainment that is exactly customized to your every need, for example? Furthermore, few people have considered the ramifications of a machine that can generate massive amounts of text in an instant. For a NIMBY facing a planning application, GPT-4 is a blessing. He can write a well-written 1,000-page complaint in five minutes. Someone must then respond to it. Spam emails will become more difficult to identify. Fraud cases could skyrocket. Banks will have to spend more money on avoiding attacks and compensating victims.

Battle of Words

In a world with a lot of AI, there will be more lawyers. In the 1970s, you could make a multimillion-dollar deal on 15 pages because retyping was such a pain. AI will let us cover the 1,000 most likely edge cases in the first draft, and then the parties will fight about it for weeks. In America, a good rule of thumb is that you shouldn't sue for damages unless you want $250,000 or more in pay, since it costs that much to go to court. Now, the costs of going to court could drop to almost nothing. Teachers and writers will have to check everything they read to make sure it wasn't written by an AI. OpenAI has put out a tool that makes this possible. So, it is giving the world a way to deal with a problem that its own technology has caused.

AI could change the world in ways that we can't even think of right now. But this is not the same as flipping the economy on its head. Fogel wrote that his case wasn't meant to disprove the idea that the railroad was a key part of America's growth in the 19th century. Instead, it was meant to show that the evidence for this idea is not nearly as strong as is usually thought. When studying generative AI in the middle of the 21st century, a future Nobel Prize winner may well come to the same result.

The fear of job displacement due to AI automation is prevalent, but history shows that job destruction happens slowly. Regulatory barriers and heavily regulated sectors, like education and healthcare, may delay the replacement of certain jobs. Additionally, new technology creates new types of jobs that cannot be imagined today.

 

 

Notes

 

Autor, D., Mindell, D., & Reynolds, E. (2020). The Work of the Future: Building Better Jobs in an Age of Intelligent Machines. Retrieved from MIT: https://workofthefuture.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2020-Final-Report4.pdf

Brynjolfsson, E., Li , D., & Raymond, L. R. (2023). Generative AI at Work. National Bureau of Economic Analysis - Working Paper. doi:10.3386/w31161

Cohan, P. (2023, May 25). Nvidia Stock Soars As CEO Jensen Huang Cites Generative AI Edge. Retrieved from Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2023/05/25/nvidia-stock-soars-as-ceo-jensen-huang-cites-generative-ai-edge/?sh=98562a66eec9

Davidson, T. (2021, June 25). Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth? Retrieved from Open Philanthropy : https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/could-advanced-ai-drive-explosive-economic-growth/

Donadel, A. (2023, March 24). College Professors Face the Highest Exposure to AI Tools, Study Finds. Retrieved from University Business: https://universitybusiness.com/college-professors-face-the-highest-exposure-to-ai-tools-study-finds/

Fogel, R. W. (1964). Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press .

Halperin, B., Chow, T., & Mazlis, J. Z. (2023, January 10). AGI and the EMH: Markets are Not Expecting Aligned or Unaligned AI in the Next 30 Years. Retrieved from Effective Altruism Forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7LycgtkypkgYjZx/agi-and-the-emh-markets-are-not-expecting-aligned-or

Krishnan, M., Mischke, J., & Remes, J. (2018, June 4). Is the Solow Paradox back? Retrieved from McKinsey Quarterly: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/is-the-solow-paradox-back

McCallum, S. (2023, April 1). ChatGPT Banned in Italy Over Privacy Concerns. Retrieved from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406

McKendrick, J. (2023, May 26). Most Jobs Soon To Be ‘Influenced’ By Artificial Intelligence, Research Out Of OpenAI And University Of Pennsylvania Suggests. Retrieved from Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemckendrick/2023/03/26/most-jobs-soon-to-be-influenced-by-artificial-intelligence-research-out-of-openai-and-university-of-pennsylvania-suggests/?sh=693029ab73c7

Moy, C. (2023, January 30). Spinning Jenny: Who Invented the Spinning Jenny? Retrieved from The Economic Historian: https://economic-historian.com/2022/07/spinning-jenny/

National Geographic. (2023). Industrial Revolution and Technology. Retrieved from https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/industrial-revolution-and-technology/

Osborne, M., & Frey, C. B. (2013). Automation and the Future of Work – Understanding the Numbers. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280.

Patel, D., & Ahmad, A. (2023, May 4). Google "We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI". Retrieved from Semi-Analysis: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

Prakash, P. (2023, May 2). Chegg’s Shares Tumbled Nearly 50% After the Edtech Company Said Its Customers are Using ChatGPT Instead of Paying for its Study Tools. Retrieved from Forbes: https://fortune.com/2023/05/02/chegg-shares-tumble-students-fleeing-chatgpt-a-i/

Price, D. A. (2019). Econ Focus: Goodbye, Operator. Retrieved from https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2019/q4/economic_history

The Economist. (2023, May 7). Beyond the Hype: Your Job is (Probably) Safe from Artificial Intelligence. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/05/07/your-job-is-probably-safe-from-artificial-intelligence

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2022, July). Growth Trends for Selected Occupations Considered at Risk From Automation. Retrieved from Monthly Labor Review: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/article/growth-trends-for-selected-occupations-considered-at-risk-from-automation.htm

Veltman, C. (2023, April 21). When You Realize Your Favorite New Song Was Written and Performed by ... AI. Retrieved from NPR: https://www.npr.org/2023/04/21/1171032649/ai-music-heart-on-my-sleeve-drake-the-weeknd#:~:text=Press-,'Heart%20on%20my%20Sleeve'%20uses%20AI%20to%20simulate%20Drake%20and,raises%20legal%20and%20ethical%20questions.

 

 

 

 

The Nigerian Army: A Tale of Corruption and Incompetence

 

 

The Nigerian army's decline is like watching a superhero movie in reverse - they started strong, but now they can barely catch a petty thief, let alone fight off terrorists or local mafias. Anybody paying attention will immediately notice that the Nigerian army is in trouble, especially given that their attempts to combat terrorism resemble a game of hide-and-seek where the Nigerian Army are always the ones hiding and the terrorists are very, very good at seeking.

 

The Nigerian army has long been a point of pride for the country, with a rich history of bravery and courage in the face of adversity. For instance, the Nigerian army's role in the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) was akin to a beacon of hope for war-torn countries in the 1980s and 1990s. Through ECOMOG, the Nigerian army was able to bring a much-needed stability and peace to countries like Liberia, Sierra Leone, and other African nations. The army's efforts were like a soothing balm for these countries, providing them with the peace and stability they so desperately needed.

The Nigerian army's involvement in ECOMOG at the time was also a shining example of the country's commitment to peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts in the region. The army's efforts to restore peace in these countries were akin to a giant leap forward in the fight against conflict and violence in Africa. Their  actions when it comes to peace keeping in West Africa were a testament to Nigeria's willingness to go above and beyond in the pursuit of peace and stability, and their success in this endeavor was a source of great pride for the nation.

Unfortunately, in recent years, the army has become a mere shadow of its former self, largely due to rampant corruption, favoritism, and nepotism in recruitment. This has led to a severe decline in the competence and effectiveness of the army, to the point where it can no longer effectively combat the threat of Boko Haram and other terrorist groups. The incapacity of the Nigerian military to combat the threats posed by Boko Haram in northern Nigeria and the "unknown gunmen" thugs (who are notorious in Eastern Nigeria for kidnapping, murder, and extortion) is perplexing, like an unexpected twist in a fascinating story. Once seen as a strong force, their inability to dismantle these ragtag gangs has continued to astounds every Nigerian citizen. Boko Haram, like a cunning fox, has infiltrated Nigeria's military bases, carrying out successful attacks that rock the very foundations of Nigeria's  national security. The leaders tasked with protecting the country, such as Defense Minister Bashir Salihi Magashi and Army Chief of Defense Staff, General Lucky Irabor, should be blamed for the consequences of their incompetence. It is a distressing reality that the ministry they supervise is ill-equipped to defend itself, let alone protect Nigerian citizens' lives.

Moment of Truth: Somebody’s Gotta Say It

The current state of the Nigerian army is like a ship caught in a raging storm, unable to navigate the treacherous waters of insecurity and violence that have engulfed the country. The army's weakness has left it vulnerable to attack from all sides, with different regions of the country falling under the control of local mafias and terrorist groups. The situation is like a nightmare for the people of Nigeria, who are living in constant fear of being abducted, kidnapped, or killed.

It is as if there is a parallel government operating in Nigeria, one that is run by criminals and terrorists who are free to carry out their nefarious activities without fear of reprisal. This situation has left many feeling like they are living in a lawless society, with the Nigerian army powerless to restore order and protect the citizens. The army's failure to control the current insecurity in the country is like a gaping wound in the nation's fabric, a wound that threatens to tear the country apart if left unchecked.

In many ways, the Nigerian army is now akin to a wounded animal, struggling to survive against overwhelming odds. Corruption and nepotism have created a toxic environment within the army, with promotions and appointments often being based on factors other than merit and ability. This has led to a lack of morale and motivation among many soldiers, who feel that their hard work and dedication are being overlooked in favor of those with connections or who are willing to pay bribes.

As a result of this widespread corruption and favoritism, the Nigerian army has become a breeding ground for incompetence and inefficiency. Training standards have fallen dramatically, with many soldiers ill-prepared and ill-equipped to deal with the challenges of modern warfare. The army is plagued by a lack of discipline and accountability, with many soldiers engaging in misconduct and abuse of power with impunity.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of this decline in the Nigerian army's effectiveness is its inability to effectively combat Boko Haram and other terrorist groups. Once feared throughout West Africa for its formidable fighting force, the army now struggles to even contain the threat of Boko Haram, let alone defeat it. This is due in large part to the lack of training and discipline among soldiers, as well as a lack of leadership and strategic planning at the higher levels.

Simply put, the Nigerian army is similar to a ship without a captain, drifting aimlessly in dangerous waters. The leadership of the army has been unable to effectively address the corruption and nepotism that plagues the institution, and has failed to implement meaningful reforms to improve the army's training and capabilities. This has left the army vulnerable to attack, both from within and without, and has undermined the country's ability to defend itself against its enemies.

Modus Operandi

It is clear that the Nigerian army is in dire need of reform if it is to once again become a force to be reckoned with. This will require a concerted effort to root out corruption and favoritism, and to promote a culture of meritocracy and accountability. It will also require significant investment in training and equipment, as well as a renewed focus on strategic planning and leadership development.

However, it is important to recognize that these reforms will not happen overnight. They will require a sustained and committed effort on the part of both the government, the defense minister Bashir Salihi Magashi, and the military leadership, as well as the support and participation of all members of the army. Only by working together can the Nigerian army overcome the challenges it faces, and once again become a source of pride and strength for the country.

The Bottom line is this:  the current state of the Nigerian army is a cause for great concern, and highlights the dangers of corruption, favoritism, and nepotism in recruitment. Unless urgent action is taken to address these issues, the army will continue to decline in effectiveness and competence, and will be unable to defend the country against its enemies. It is time for the Nigerian government and military leadership to recognize the severity of this issue, and to take bold and decisive action to reform the army and restore its former glory.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

Campbell, J. (2018, November 27). Boko Haram Overruns Outgunned Nigerian Military Base. Retrieved from Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/blog/boko-haram-overruns-outgunned-nigerian-military-base#:~:text=On%20November%2018%2C%20an%20army,the%20aftermath%20of%20the%20attack.

Chukwuma C.C. Osakwe, C. C., & Audu , B. N. (2017). The Nigeria Led ECOMOG Military Intervention and Interest in the Sierra Leone Crisis: An Overview. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 8(4), 107-114.

Habib, G. (2023, May 24). Nigeria Spent $8bn to Restore Peace in Liberia, Says Irabor. Retrieved from Punch: https://punchng.com/nigeria-spent-8bn-to-restore-peace-in-liberia-says-irabor/#:~:text=Nigeria's%20government%20has%20spent%20%248,the%20United%20Nations%20peacekeeping%20operations.

International Crisis Group. (2016, June 6). Nigeria: The Challenge of Military Reform. Retrieved from https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/nigeria-challenge-military-reform

McGregor, A. (1999). Quagmire in West Africa: Nigerian Peacekeeping in Sierra Leone (1997-98). International Journal, 54(3), 482-501.

Premium Times. (2023, February 13). Nigeria Military is Overstretched – Defence Minister. Retrieved from https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/581754-nigeria-military-is-overstretched-defence-minister.html

Sahara Reporters. (2023, January 6). EXCLUSIVE: Nigerian Army Moves To Stop Soldiers From Resigning Over Low Morale, Loss Of Interest, Other Reasons. Retrieved from https://saharareporters.com/2023/01/06/exclusive-nigerian-army-moves-stop-soldiers-resigning-over-low-morale-loss-interest

 

 

Nigeria’s Presidential Election Drama Revisited: Chaos, Count, and Confusion

 

The recently concluded  presidential election in Nigeria was like a photo finish, with results appearing blurry and questionable. Tinubu's victory has left many Nigerian scratching their heads like perplexed kangaroos.

 

I had planned to write about the election in Nigeria that just ended. But every time I try to start the piece, I often lose interest because I am still upset about how that election turned out. It's like trying to write a love letter to your crush, only to find out that they're already taken. You just lose all drive and begin to consider drinking several shots  of Hennessy  to make yourself feel better. As I wallowed in my despondency, contemplating drowning my sorrows in a sea of Hennessy, a headline from Reuters, echoed by Yahoo News, hit me like a lightning bolt: "U.S. Casts Election-Related Visa Restrictions on Nigerians." It was a jolt of energy that snapped me out of my stupor, propelling me into a fervent writing frenzy about the Nigerian presidential election that was concluded three months ago. The headline prompted me to feel a feeling of urgency to investigate and report on the impact of the election by revealing its  potential repercussions on international relations. It also highlighted the relevance of the election in the global arena, which further highlighted its significance.

Nigeria's current ruling party's candidate, Bola Tinubu, was named the winner of the closest presidential election in decades after a chaotic vote and a messy count. The Nigeria's  electoral board said on March 1 that Mr. Tinubu, a 70-year-old former governor of Lagos and kingmaker in Nigerian politics for many years, got 37% of the vote. This put him ahead of Atiku Abubakar (29%), a businessman running for the main opposition party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi (25%), a third-party candidate running as a wild card for the Labor Party (LP).

The majority of pollsters and Nigerians  were surprised by Mr. Tinubu's victory, as they had placed Mr. Obi in a commanding lead in the competition to govern Africa's nation with the largest economy and the most populated population. (However, there were some analysts who expressed skepticism on the accuracy of the results of various surveys on account of the significant number of respondents who stated that they would not disclose their voting preference.) In addition to this, Mr. Tinubu's so called victory ensures that the All Progressives Congress (APC) party, which has led the government since 2015, would continue to hold power. During this time period, the average standard of living of Nigerians has decreased, while the country's levels of violence, separatism, and insecurity have increased. Concerns that the opposition parties' allegations of vote-rigging could lead to unrest shook the financial markets, resulting in a decline for Nigeria's international bonds.

As a result of the utilization of modern technology by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), this election was anticipated to be the cleanest and most transparent election that has ever taken place in Nigeria. Its methods were designed to unequivocally identify voters and send photographs of the results straight from each of the 176,846 polling places to a centralized collection point, where the general public would be able to view and validate them.

Increasing confidence in the democratic process was the goal of this plan. Many people in Nigeria have clear recollections of the presidential election that took place in 2011, when over 800 people were killed in clashes as a result of the losing party's allegations of electoral fraud. In spite of this, the Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has committed a number of errors, which has once again given rise to claims of vote manipulation,  rigging and improper conduct. Opposition parties have demanded that the election be held again. Concerns have been raised that the situation could escalate into violence, with the outcomes virtually probably being brought before the courts.

There were problems from the very beginning of the electoral process. There is documentary evidence that  one-third of polling locations were still not open an hour after voting had begun on February 25th - the election day in Nigeria.  Officials at some stations were working with insufficient materials. In battleground states like Lagos, Kano, and Rivers, armed men stormed and attacked some polling places while voters were casting their ballots. In addition to these accusations, there were also reports of voter intimidation, the buying and selling of votes, the theft of ballot boxes, and the burning of ballot papers. There is little doubt that all of this led to a lower turnout. With only 25% of eligible voters casting their votes, the turnout was significantly lower than the previous election in 2019, which saw 35% of registered voters cast their ballots.

 

A Comedy of Errors

 

The counting was likewise done in an arbitrary and haphazard  manner. The mechanism that was supposed to transmit the results electronically was plagued with several malfunctions. A sizeable portion of the election results  were never uploaded. The labels on several of them were both illegible and in the wrong order. Some of the returning officers made the mistake of sending in selfies rather than the tally sheets they were supposed to send in.

Voters who were dissatisfied with the results that were revealed at their polling stations flooded social media with images of the results in an effort to demonstrate discrepancies with the results that were reported at higher levels. In addition, party officials distributed images of handwritten forms that appeared to have been crossed out and replaced multiple times. At the Lagos collation center, an official with the Labor Party voiced her dissatisfaction with a colleague, claiming that the results were signed at gunpoint by the colleague. After receiving threats of physical harm, the electoral officer in Rivers state decided to suspend the vote count.

The parties that support Messrs. Abubakar and Obi have demanded a re-run of the election as well as the resignation of Mahmood Yakubu as head of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). According to Datti Baba-Ahmed, who is running for vice president on the LP ticket, the future government is likely to be constructed on blatant acts of criminality. The vice presidential candidate for the PDP, Ifeanyi Okowa, stated that Mr. Yakubu had a moral obligation to save Nigeria by halting the vote count. The procedure was described as free, fair, and credible by officials from INEC. According to Mr. Tinubu, the amount of alleged irregularities  was few in number, and they were inconsequential to the final outcome. In a preliminary report, international observers stated that the election fell well short of the legitimate and reasonable expectations of Nigerian citizens.

The opposition party is already seeking redress in the courts, which is something that frequently occurs after elections in Nigeria. It's possible that evidence gleaned from social media and other independent sources will prove to be essential to their case. There is a good chance that some tight results in areas where Mr. Tinubu just barely made it over the barrier of 25% that any candidate needs to clear in at least two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states and the federal capital in order to avoid a run-off election will be subjected to a particularly close level of scrutiny. Mr. Tinubu, whom INEC claimed was successful in accomplishing this goal in 29 states (but not in the capital), received only 25.01% of the vote in Adamawa state and 25.8% in Bayelsa state.

These near misses are indicative of a close race as well as a country that was divided into three distinct camps during the election, with each of the three major contenders gaining the lead in a separate set of 12 states. It is possible that Mr. Tinubu's capacity to unite a country that is still fragmented by religion, language, and ethnicity would be hindered by such divisions, as well as by the issues that have been raised about the validity of his election.

The fact that Mr. Tinubu is known for being a kingmaker motivated solely by his personal self-interest is not beneficial to his cause. His campaign slogan, "Emi lo kan," in Yoruba language, means "It's my turn." After such a vicious battle, it appears that,  in fact, it is.

The bottom line is this: With a reputation as a self-interested kingmaker, Tinubu's ambitions face headwinds, as his campaign slogan echoes a sentiment of personal entitlement. In the aftermath of this fierce battle, the question remains whether it truly is his turn or a different destiny awaits.

The curtains have been drawn, and the stage is set for Mr. Tinubu's grand presidential inauguration on May 29. However, lurking beneath the surface lies a tumultuous reality. With a reputation as a self-interested puppet master, Tinubu's lofty aspirations find themselves caught in a whirlwind of resistance, as his campaign slogan reverberates with an air of entitlement. As the dust settles from this fierce battleground, where INEC declared his triumph, the burning question lingers: Will it be a glorious coronation or a divergent path that awaits the fate of Nigeria?

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

 

Oyero, K. (2023, February 28). At Joint Briefing, Okowa, Baba-Ahmed Ask INEC To Cancel Elections . Retrieved from Channels TV: https://www.channelstv.com/2023/02/28/at-joint-briefing-okowa-baba-ahmed-ask-inec-to-cancel-elections/

Reuters. (2023, May 15). U.S. Imposes Election-Related Visa Restrictions on Nigerians. Retrieved from Yahoo News: https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-imposes-election-related-visa-124055302.html

Sivabalan , S., & Goko, C. (2023, February 28). Nigerian Bonds Drop as Opposition Boycott May Delay Vote Outcome. Retrieved from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/nigerian-bonds-halt-rally-as-investors-await-clearer-result#xj4y7vzkg

The Economist. (2023, March 1). A Change of the Old Guard: Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s Political Kingmaker, Wins a Flawed Election. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/03/01/bola-tinubu-nigerias-political-kingmaker-wins-a-flawed-election

 

 

A Costly Gamble: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of College Education

 

Governments have long touted college as a golden staircase to social mobility and economic growth, but with rising tuition fees and stagnant graduate earnings, the disillusionment with higher education is growing like a dark cloud on the horizon.

 

It is graduation season again, but is college still a boon for social mobility and economic growth? At one time, the answer to that question appeared to be obvious. Over the past several decades, increasing numbers of young adults in both developed and less developed countries have been enrolling in higher education programs. College has been lauded by governments as a means of improving both social mobility and economic prosperity. Recently, disillusionment is growing as a result of rising tuition costs and graduates' incomes remaining flat or static. There is a significant body of scholarly material that points to a worsening confidence problem. For instance, a survey that was conducted and published by the Wall Street Journal, which is a newspaper that focuses on business news, found that 56% of people in the United States currently believe that earning a degree is no longer worth the effort and expense that it requires.

At least for a normal college freshman, this doesn't fit with the facts. In most places and for most students, getting a college degree still brings in a lot of financial benefits. Yet getting a degree has become riskier. The benefits for the best students are getting better, but a worryingly large number of students aren't getting anything financially good out of their studies.

New data sets, like tax records, are shedding more light on this than ever before. They can basically keep track of how much students who take certain classes or pursue certain degrees at specific colleges earn in the future. In the long run, this information will help students avoid the worst payoffs and grab the best ones. Choice of college degree and time of graduation are very important, but choice of college or university isn't as important. It could also help states who want to stop people from getting low-value degrees.

In the rich world, college graduates started making more money in the 1980s. The college-wage premium, which is what people call the difference in pay between people with at least a bachelor's degree and those without one, started to grow at that time. In the 1970s, an American with a college degree made 35% more than an American with a high school diploma. This edge had grown to 66% by 2021.

In many countries, the pay premium has either stopped going up or is starting to go down. Costs have also gone up in places where students have to pay for their degrees (see Table 1). In the late 1990s, there was no tuition in England. Now, it costs £9,250 ($11,000) a year, which is the most in the rich world. From about $2,300 a year in the 1970s to about $9,000 a year in real terms, the out-of-pocket costs of a bachelor's degree in the United States have gone up, according to the available published evidence. Most of the time, students at public universities pay a lot less than those at private non-profits.

Still, the average degree is still worth something. Studies have given a rough estimate of how much money an average American earns each year after getting a bachelor's degree. There is a lot of other published data that shows the average rate of return for a bachelor's degree in 2019 is around 14%. In the early 2000s, that was as high as 16%. But it's still a lot of money. And it's a lot more than the 8–9% that American graduates made in the 1970s, before pay for graduates and tuition fees started to go up. These figures take into account both fees and the amount of money a person could make if they worked full-time instead.

But the averages hides a wide range of results. Until recently, polls were the main way for economists to figure out who won and who lost when it comes to getting college degrees. Governments, like those of Britain and Norway, are now more likely to offer large, anonymous records that show the real earnings of millions of college students. This makes it much easier to compare people who has various degrees. The broken-down numbers show that a lot of students get degrees that aren't worth the money they cost.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), a research group, says that in England, 25% of male graduates and 15% of female graduates will make less money over the course of their jobs than their peers who do not get a degree. America has less complete data, but they have started putting out information about how many students  at thousands of colleges don't earn more than the average high school graduate early on. Researchers at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, have found that 27% of students who start at a normal four-year college do not finish it six years later. More than half of the people who enroll in the long tail, which is made up of the worst 30% of two- and four-year schools in the U.S., don't meet this standard.

 

Table 1: Estimated Average Cost of Bachelor’s Degree (Tuition Fees) by Country

 

Country	Tuition (International)	Living Expenses
Argentina	Free to $15,000	$2,800 - $5,000/year
Australia	$20,000 (public) - $45,000 (private)	$16,700/year
Canada	$20,000 - $45,000	$15,000 - $17,000/year
Brazil	Free to $15,000	$4,200 - $17,800/year
U.K. (England)	$17,000 - $43,000	$21,700
U.K. (Scotland)	$25,000	$20,000
Denmark	$8,000 - $21,000	$13,500/year
Germany	Free to $35,000	$14,400/year
Spain	$850 - $28,000	$12,000
China	$4,700 - $46,000	$14,600
France	$3,400	$12,200
Japan	$7,200 - $16,000	$10,500
India	$$350 - $5,500	$4,600
Russia	$1,300 - $6,000	$6,800
South Korea	$16,800	$9,500
Dubai	$7,800 - $32,000	$12,500 - $45,000/year
Italy	$1,200 - $7,500	$9,600
United States	$9,377 - $37,000	$16,300

 

Source: Culled from Education Data Initiative (Hanson, 2021; Hanson, 2023)

 

Dropping out without finishing is a clear way to lose a lot of money. Taking longer than normal to finish college also reduces value because it wastes years that could have been spent working full-time. Both of these things happen often. Less than 40% of people in the rich world who are working on their first degrees finish them in the time they are supposed to. Three years later, about a fifth of them still don't have any qualifications.

Choosing the right course or degree is very important if one want to make more money with their college education.  According to The Economist, a news magazine, Britons who study creative arts (less than 10% of men make a good return), social care, and agriculture are most likely to have negative returns. Engineering, computer science, and business degrees are by far the most valuable in the United States. Most likely to have bad results in terms of earning power are music and the visual arts. Trying to guess a person's total earnings by program based on the data we have about America is a stretch. But Preston Cooper, who works at a think tank called FREOPP, thinks that more than a quarter of bachelor's degree programs in the United States will not pay off for most of the students who graduated from college.

Most of the time, what you learn is more important than where you do it. That's true, but there are caveats. The worst colleges and universities don't offer much value to their students, no matter what they teach. But the best available data shows that people who go to public universities in the U.S. make more money over their lifetimes than those who go to the more prestigious private non-profit universities. One reason for this is that the non-profits have high tuition fees.

Earnings figures from Britain call into question the idea that smart college students  will always do better if they are forced to go to very selective schools. Some young people apply for the easiest subject, even if it doesn't normally bring in a lot of money, in order to get into the college or university  they want. Parents who want their kids to go to Oxford or Cambridge no matter what should pay attention to this problem of earning power after graduation. But there is also proof that taking a high-paying course just for the sake of it can backfire. Academic research shows that students who want to study arts but end up studying science make less money after ten years than they probably would have if they had studied what they really wanted to study.

Men have more reason than women to worry that the money they put into college won't pay off. This is because they are more likely to make a good living without a degree. If one didn't do well in school, going to college is a risk because they might end up making less money than people who got the same degree but were better prepared.

In Britain, the return on a degree is usually higher for South Asian students than for white students because they tend to study business. On the other hand, the return on a degree is usually lower for black students compared to what people of the same race earn if they don't go to college. Compared to white and black students, Asian students in America seem to have the least trouble paying off their student loans.

 

Changing Landscape

 

What do you think the takeaways are from all of this analysis? Already there are indications that the market for higher education is beginning to change. At varying points in their education, individuals are already initiating their own searches for lucrative investment opportunities. Between 2011 and 2021, there was a roughly one-third decrease in the number of degrees that were awarded annually in English and in history in the United States. During that time period, the number of people graduating with degrees in computer science more than doubled. Others are choosing not to attend college at all. Since 2011, the number of persons who signed up for college programs has decreased annually.

Additionally, institutions are undergoing change by eliminating humanities departments. Recent decisions by the board of Marymount University in Virginia have resulted in the elimination of degree programs in nine disciplines, including English, history, philosophy, and theology. There are several universities, like Calvin University in Michigan and Howard University in Washington, DC, that have stopped teaching their students the classics. Additionally, the future of archaeology at the University of Sheffield in Britain appears to be uncertain.

Employers are also adjusting their practices. Companies are showing a trend toward becoming less likely to insist that job applicants possess degrees as well. Tight labor markets and the demand for people with a wider range of experiences and perspectives both contribute to explain why. It is worth pointing out that just a few years ago approximately 80% of the jobs that the technology giant IBM advertised in the United States required a degree. At this point, it is close to 50%. As a result, having a degree is no longer the sole indication of the skills that a someone may possess.

Should governments put more emphasis on these tendencies? In Estonia, the percentage of students who complete their degrees within the allotted time is one of the several metrics that determine how much funding an educational institution receives. There are also systems like this in place in Sweden, Finland, Israel, and Lithuania. The Australian government is making an effort to encourage students to make decisions that are beneficial to society. The tuition for undergraduate students studying social sciences, political science, or communications was increased by a factor of two in 2021, while the tuition for nursing and teaching was decreased by a factor of two. Students do not appear to be particularly moved by the recent changes, which may be due to the lenient terms under which student loans are repaid in Australia. The government of Britain believes that it can change people's behaviors with respect to choosing the right college degrees by providing each resident of England with an online account that details the maximum amount of money they are permitted to borrow from the state for the purpose of furthering their education over the course of their lifetime. The goal is to instill thriftiness in those who have graduated from high school.

Others continue to overspend. The  President of the United States, Joe Biden, is optimistic that the Supreme Court would soon give its blessing to a proposal that was introduced  to forgive a sizeable portion of the student debt in the United States. He also wants a more forgiving payback method. Over the course of the next decade, the expenditures associated with this might add up to hundreds of billions of dollars. Additionally, Mr. Biden pledges to compile an official list of classes of "low-financial value." The argument for barring weak programs from receiving funding from the federal government for student loans is more compelling. However, if Congress does not take action, this will mostly impact for-profit colleges, which only enroll a small portion of the total number of students in the United States.

Many people find it offensive that more and more attention is being paid to the financial benefits of higher education. Graduates who go into public service will almost certainly make less money than those who work on Wall Street. There are many fields of study that are valuable in and of themselves. However, many students respond to surveys by stating that increasing their earning potential is one of their top priorities. For students who come from the most disadvantaged backgrounds and for whom the cost of higher education is the greatest, satisfactory returns are of the utmost importance. A startling number of people today have the so-called bad degrees It is possible for their prevalence to be reduced by the implementation of improved knowledge, market forces, and  smarter policies.

The bottom line is this: Valuable fields of study are like a good book – you can't judge their worth by the number of pages or the thickness of the cover. In the meantime, let's hope the prevalence of bad degrees decreases faster than the time it takes for a student to realize they accidentally enrolled in a medieval basket weaving course.

 

 

Notes

 

BBC News. (2021, May 21). University of Sheffield Archaeology Department Threat 'Blow to UK'. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-57199118

Belkin, D. (2023, March 31). Americans Are Losing Faith in College Education, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds. Retrieved from Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-are-losing-faith-in-college-education-wsj-norc-poll-finds-3a836ce1

Britton , J., Dearden, L., Waltmann , B., & van der Erve, L. (2020, February 29). The Impact of Undergraduate Degrees on Lifetime Earnings. Retrieved from The Institute for Fiscal Studies: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/impact-undergraduate-degrees-lifetime-earnings

Carnevale, A. P., Cheah, B., & Van Der Werf, M. (2020). ROI of Liberal Arts Colleges: Value Adds Up Over Time. Retrieved from Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce: McCourt School of Public Policy: https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Liberal-Arts-ROI.pdf

Cooper, P. (2022, March 31). How to Hold Colleges and Universities Accountable for Prices and Outcomes. Retrieved from FREOPP: https://freopp.org/improving-return-on-investment-in-higher-education-principles-for-reform-e6ed38c50ae5

Getahun , H., & Snodgrass , E. (2023, March 10). Catholic Liberal Arts College in Virginia Courts Backlash After Cutting Several Majors, Including Religious Studies, English, and Math. Retrieved from Insider: https://www.insider.com/marymount-university-to-cut-9-majors-including-english-math-2023-3#:~:text=Trustees%20at%20Marymount%20University%2C%20a,student%20concerns%20about%20the%20decision.

Hanson, M. (2023, April 3). Average Cost of College & Tuition. Retrieved from Education Data Initiative: https://educationdata.org/average-cost-of-college#:~:text=The%20average%20cost%20of%20attendance,or%20%24218%2C004%20over%204%20years.

Hanson, N. (2021, August 9). Average Cost of College By Country. Retrieved from Average Cost of College By Country: https://educationdata.org/average-cost-of-college-by-country

Hardy , A., & Tuttle, B. (2023, March 31). Most Americans Say College Is No Longer Worth the Cost. Retrieved from Money: https://money.com/college-costs-no-longer-worth-it-survey/

Horton, A. P. (2020, July 28). Why Australia is Doubling Fees for Arts Degrees. Retrieved from BBC Worklife: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200728-why-australia-is-charging-more-to-study-history

Inskeep, S. (2021, May 10). Howard University's Decision To Cut Classics Department Prompts An Outcry. Retrieved from NPR: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995389117/howard-universitys-decision-to-cut-classics-department-prompts-an-outcry

National Center for Education Statistics. (2022). Fast Facts: Most popular majors. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=37

Nova, A. (2023, April 22). Supreme Court Will Rule Against Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Plan, Legal Experts Predict. Retrieved from CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/22/bidens-loan-forgiveness-to-be-blocked-supreme-court-experts-predict-.html

OECD. (2023). The Allocation of Public Funding to Higher Education Institutions. Retrieved from OECD Library: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/e1f2d1b5-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/e1f2d1b5-en

Pew Research Center. (2011, mAY 15). Is College Worth It? Retrieved from PRC Executive Summary: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2011/05/15/is-college-worth-it/

Ruggeri, A. (2019, April 1). Why ‘Worthless’ Humanities Degrees May Set You Up for Life. Retrieved from BBC Worklife: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20190401-why-worthless-humanities-degrees-may-set-you-up-for-life

The Economist . (2023, April 3). Useless Studies: Was Your Degree Really Worth It? Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/international/2023/04/03/was-your-degree-really-worth-it

Townsend , R. B. (2021, February 23). Has the Decline in History Majors Hit Bottom? Retrieved from American Historical Association: Perspectives on History: https://www.historians.org/research-and-publications/perspectives-on-history/march-2021/has-the-decline-in-history-majors-hit-bottom-data-from-2018%E2%80%9319-show-lowest-number-since-1980