Is the world really going to stand by and allow Iran to hijack the Strait of Hormuz? If world governments allow this Iranian shakedown to happen, it will not only be a dereliction of duty—it could also send global trade into convulsions and drag the world back to pre-Egyptian levels of civilization.
Because that is what this increasingly looks like. Not
diplomacy. Not ordinary maritime regulation. Not some innocent administrative
fee collected by smiling bureaucrats carrying clipboards. We are talking about
one of the most important waterways on Earth, with Iran seeking fees of 5% to
7% of cargo value while proposals are being discussed that could give Tehran
significant control over vessels entering the Persian Gulf. Washington says
there should be no fees. The global shipping industry is warning that the
arrangement may be commercially and legally unworkable.
I call that dangerous.
Very dangerous.
Is the world really going to allow the Iranian regime and
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to turn the Strait of Hormuz into
something resembling a Mafia-controlled street corner?
“Nice tanker you have there.”
“Beautiful cargo.”
“Would be a shame if something happened to it.”
Pay up.
That is the ugly picture now hanging over international
shipping.
And the stakes are enormous. According to the U.S. Energy
Information Administration, 20.4 million barrels per day of crude oil,
condensate and petroleum products moved through Hormuz during the 1st quarter
of 2025. By the 4th quarter, the figure was 20.7 million barrels per day. In
2024 and the 1st quarter of 2025, Hormuz carried more than 25% of the world’s
seaborne oil trade and roughly 20% of global oil and petroleum-product
consumption. About 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade also passed through
Hormuz in 2024.
Think about that. This is not some creek behind Tehran. It
is an economic artery. Squeeze it hard enough and somebody, somewhere, starts
gasping.
China needs energy. India needs energy. South Korea needs
energy. Europe watches energy prices. America watches gasoline prices.
Factories need fuel. Trucks need diesel. Airlines need jet fuel. Petrochemical
plants need feedstock. Ordinary families need affordable transportation,
electricity and goods.
In 2024 alone, China, India and South Korea accounted for
52% of the LNG moving through Hormuz. About 83% of Hormuz LNG went to Asian
markets. So when politicians treat Hormuz like a regional quarrel involving
countries thousands of miles away, I wonder whether somebody forgot how
globalization works.
Oil does not need a passport to create inflation. Neither
does fear.
Markets understand this better than politicians. On
August 7, 2026, Brent crude rose 1.03% to $83.34 per barrel and West Texas
Intermediate rose 0.67% to $77.81 as markets worried about Iran’s plans for the
strait. Brent had already jumped roughly $3 per barrel the previous day. Iran
was considering fees as high as 7% of cargo value, while another proposal
reportedly contemplated penalties reaching 20% for violations of restrictions.
That is what a geopolitical chokehold looks like when
translated into dollars.
The legal issue matters too.
Article 38 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS) establishes a right of transit passage through straits used
for international navigation. It says ships and aircraft enjoy that right and
that the passage “shall not be impeded.” Article 44 goes directly to the duties
of states bordering such straits. The basic idea could hardly be clearer:
international straits cannot simply be treated as private driveways whenever a
coastal government gets angry.
There is an important wrinkle, and I will not hide it
because inconvenient facts do not disappear when we shout louder. Iran signed
UNCLOS on December 10, 1982, but has never ratified it. That complicates any
simplistic claim that every Iranian restriction automatically constitutes a
treaty violation by Iran. The broader argument therefore concerns the
international-law regime governing navigation through international straits and
the extent to which transit-passage rules reflect customary international law.
But that legal technicality does not make the strategic
danger disappear.
And history has already given us the trailer for this
movie.
During the Iran-Iraq War, the Persian Gulf became the
stage for the infamous Tanker War. Merchant vessels became targets. Mines
entered the water. Shipping became entangled with warfare. Eventually, the
United States launched Operation Earnest Will, escorting reflagged Kuwaiti
tankers. The operation ran from July 24, 1987, until September 26, 1988, and
became the largest U.S. naval convoy operation since World War II. The IRGC
Navy also resorted to mines.
History knocked on the door.
Apparently, nobody answered.
Now look at 2026.
Before Iran closed the strait following the outbreak of
the U.S.-Israeli conflict on February 28, roughly 130 to 140 vessels were
transiting Hormuz each week. During the first 4 days of this week, only 33
vessels passed through, compared with 50 during the same period the previous
week. On Thursday, only 4 made the trip.
That is not an abstract geopolitical argument. Those are
ships. Those are cargoes. Those are contracts. Those are factories waiting for
raw materials. Those are economies waiting for energy. And those costs do not
remain aboard the tanker. Eventually they walk into supermarkets, factories,
airports and family budgets.
That is why I find the idea of legitimizing an Iranian
toll system so disturbing and ridiculous. Iran is reportedly seeking fees equal
to 5% to 7% of cargo value. Oman has discussed something closer to 3%. The
United States rejects the idea of fees altogether. Shipping companies face
another trap: Reuters reports that U.S. sanctions against the Iranian-established
Persian Gulf Strait Authority create serious payment problems, while Lloyd’s
Market Association provisions can terminate insurance coverage where vessels
make such payments.
Wonderful.
A shipowner can potentially choose between geopolitical
danger, sanctions trouble and insurance trouble.
Pick your poison.
That is not a functioning international shipping system.
That is a hostage negotiation wearing a necktie. And this is where the world’s
governments need to decide what principle actually means.
If a powerful state can turn its geographical position
beside an international chokepoint into a permanent right to extort money from
global commerce, what exactly is the principle we are establishing?
Today, Hormuz. Tomorrow, somebody else looks at another
chokepoint and gets ideas. That is how international rules die. Rarely with
trumpets. Usually with exceptions.
“Just this once.”
“Special circumstances.”
“Temporary arrangement.”
“Necessary compromise.”
Then temporary becomes normal. Normal becomes precedent. Precedent
becomes entitlement. And suddenly everybody discovers that the rulebook has
become toilet paper.
I am not arguing that every maritime charge is
automatically illegal. Ports legitimately charge for services, and
international maritime law is more complicated than a bumper sticker. Nor am I
pretending military force is some magic wand. War around Hormuz could itself
wreck shipping, kill people and produce exactly the economic catastrophe
everyone claims to be preventing.
That is the bitter irony. The cure can kill the patient.
But recognizing that danger cannot mean accepting
coercive control of an international strait as the new normal. Hence, sometimes
the use of force is necessary to make a rogue country like Iran behave and
understand that international law is not optional and that no country has the
right to hold global trade hostage.
The truth is, this is not the work of the United States alone. The world needs to act now to restore safe, regular, and non-discriminatory commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Not passage based on whether Tehran likes your flag. Not passage based on whether somebody has paid enough money. Not passage determined by whether a tanker captain has successfully navigated sanctions rules, insurance exclusions and political demands before breakfast.
Passage.
Period.
The International Maritime Organization has stressed free
and non-discriminatory transit through the strait. That principle matters
because Hormuz does not belong economically to Iran, Oman, America, China or
anybody else alone. Geography placed the waterway where it is. Global commerce
made it everybody’s business.
And I keep coming back to the same uncomfortable image.
A toll booth.
A tanker approaches.
The world holds its breath.
Somebody asks, “Who are you?”
Another asks, “What are you carrying?”
Then comes the question that should terrify every trading
nation:
“How much are you willing to pay?”
That is where international commerce begins to look less
like law and more like protection money.
Truth be told, if Iran is permitted to impose coercive
control over Hormuz and demand payment simply for safe international passage,
it is effectively placing a “contract” on the economic interests of every
country dependent on that waterway. It tears at the principle of freedom of
navigation and transit passage through international straits.
And if the world’s governments simply shrug? Then shame
on them. That would not only be a dereliction of duty. It could send global
trade into convulsions.
Civilization works because roads remain roads, contracts
remain contracts, trade routes remain trade routes and rules remain rules. Once
an international chokepoint becomes a protection racket, everybody pays.
Maybe first at the toll booth. Then at the gas pump. Then at the supermarket. Then everywhere else. And by then, the Mafia will probably be wondering why it never thought this big.
This article stands on
its own, but some readers may also enjoy the titles in my “Brief BookSeries”. Read it here on Google Play or in Barnes & Noble
bookstore: Brief Book Series.

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