It
seems that Putin's overseas empire is beginning to collapse like a house of
cards. The recent unraveling in Syria, with Assad’s government buckling faster
than Kabul fell in 2021, paints a stark picture of a crumbling Russian
influence. The West and Ukraine must seize this opportune moment and not
relent. The stakes are too high to let Putin regain his balance now. The
dominoes are falling; the next move must be to ensure they don’t stop.
Syria's
collapse wasn’t on anyone’s immediate radar, especially with so many other
global crises brewing, but the Syrian rebels caught Putin's forces by surprise,
sweeping through Aleppo. Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, once the commander in
the Kharkiv region of Ukraine and now Syria, tasted yet another defeat. His
ignominious track record has left him in a precarious position; one might
suggest he avoids any balconies once he gets back to Moscow—Putin’s Kremlin is
not kind to those who fail.
Assad,
unlike Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, chose to flee instead of staying
and fighting. Zelensky famously refused evacuation in 2022, saying, "I
need ammunition, not a ride." Assad, on the other hand, did take the ride,
escaping to Russia with his family, finding shelter in the same Moscow where
his relatives own luxury apartments worth millions. As the regime in Syria
teeters on the brink, so does Russia's influence in the region. The potential
loss of the Khmeimim airbase and the naval facility at Tartus could spell the
end for Russia's operational reach in the Middle East, Sudan, and the Sahel.
Without
these bases, Russian operations across the broader region would grind to a
halt. Putin’s regional allies—Iran and Hezbollah—are themselves facing
pressures, and Russia lacks the resources to sustain its ambitions. The October
7 Hamas attack on Israel, likely backed by Iran and supported by Russia, was a
tactical error. It further strained an already tense geopolitical environment.
Israel’s response to Hamas has destabilized conditions, weakening Iran and
leaving Assad without his usual backers.
The
Syrian conflict is now in the hands of a coalition led by Turkish-backed Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham, which has ties to al-Qaeda. As Assad fled, Russian forces did
what they do best: target civilians. Yet, unlike in Ukraine where they met
significant pushback, this tactic is not deterring the militants. The tables
have turned against Putin, and it's a blow to his strategic ambitions.
And
the challenges for Putin are not limited to Syria. In the Caucasus, Moscow’s
influence is wearing thin. The Ochamchire district in Abkhazia, which Putin
eyed as a new home for his Black Sea fleet following successful Ukrainian
strikes that forced them out of Sevastopol, is now at risk. The discontent is
palpable—protests in Abkhazia over an investment deal that seemingly allowed
rich Russians to buy up local property led to calls for the resignation of
pro-Russian leader Aslan Bzhania. The criticism: that the lush Black Sea area
was being sold out to Russians, pricing out locals. It’s a familiar
story—colonial overreach resulting in public backlash.
The
dissatisfaction in Georgia is also reaching fever pitch. The October election
results were seen as manipulated, allegedly as part of a "Russian special
operation," according to President Salome Zourabichvili. Since then,
protests have erupted, with tens of thousands taking to the streets in at least
eight cities, rejecting what they perceive as Russia's political overreach.
Georgia, which recently suspended talks to join the European Union under
pressure from Moscow, has seen its streets filled with protesters, demanding
freedom from Russian influence.
Even
Russia's supposed allies are turning their backs. During a visit to Kazakhstan,
Putin referred to the country as a "Russian-speaking nation," only to
be "trolled" by Kazakhstan's President Tokayev, who spoke Kazakh
instead at the summit. This subtle but pointed act of defiance is indicative of
the growing resistance within Putin's sphere of influence. Armenia, another
member of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization, has
openly planned to leave, signaling a diminishing loyalty even among Russia’s
closest allies.
These
cracks in Putin’s "overseas empire" reflect a faltering strategy, one
that is being further undermined by massive losses in Ukraine. November alone
saw Russia lose over 45,720 soldiers, alongside the destruction of 307 tanks,
899 armored vehicles, and nearly 900 artillery pieces. For context, during the
entire Soviet-Afghan war from 1979 to 1989, only 14,500 Soviet troops were
killed. In Ukraine, Putin's losses in one month are more than three times that.
Such staggering casualties are unsustainable, but Putin seems determined to
outlast the West in a battle of attrition.
Despite
his domestic economy faltering, with inflation spiking and sanctions crippling
many key sectors, Putin has increased military spending to 13.5 trillion rubles
for 2025—around $145 billion. Military expenditure now accounts for over 32.5%
of the Russian budget, up from 28.3%. This is the sign of a man who is doubling
down on an unwinnable gamble. But Putin's steadfastness is not an indication of
strength—rather, it’s desperation. He’s playing poker with a bad hand, hoping
the West will fold first.
The
West must not fall for this bluff. Instead, they should strengthen Ukraine’s
position, offering the kind of support that would tip the balance decisively in
Kyiv’s favor. History is full of examples of empires collapsing due to
overreach—from the Roman Empire to the British retreat from its colonies. The
lesson is clear: when an empire overextends, it becomes vulnerable. Putin's
empire is no exception. The overreach into Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, and Africa
has left Russia thinly spread, ripe for a significant setback.
Recent
announcements by Western leaders reflect a growing realization that now is the
time to act. The U.S. has pledged a $725 million military package to Ukraine,
which includes additional air defense capabilities, advanced drones, and
precision weaponry. Germany, meanwhile, has committed to continued military and
humanitarian aid, with Chancellor Scholz visiting Kyiv to show solidarity. This
support, aimed at enhancing Ukraine's defense capabilities, must continue
unabated.
For
Ukraine to succeed, it must be allowed to strike at Russian assets
proactively—targeting ammunition depots, troop gatherings, and logistics hubs
in Russia before they ever reach the frontlines. This strategy aligns with the
principle that "offense is the best defense." By enabling Ukraine to
disrupt Russia’s supply lines, the West can make it untenable for Russian
forces to continue occupying Ukrainian territory.
The
fall of Assad in Syria, the growing discontent in Abkhazia and Georgia, and the
ongoing turmoil in Kazakhstan and Armenia all signal one thing: Putin's
influence is waning. But the work is far from over. The West must act as a
unified force, pushing Putin's empire into a full retreat. As the Russian
proverb says, "If you chase two rabbits, you will not catch either
one." Putin, by involving himself in multiple conflicts, is losing control
of all of them.
Ukraine
stands at the forefront of this battle, and the West must support it
unwaveringly. The failure to do so would be tantamount to allowing a wounded
bear to recover and attack once again. The collapse of Putin's ambitions
overseas gives the world a glimpse of what a post-Putin Russia could look
like—less aggressive, more internally focused, and perhaps even capable of
transformation.
As
Western support solidifies and Ukraine presses on, there’s a real opportunity
for change. Putin's grand empire project is faltering, but it needs that final
push. The West, Ukraine, and the free world must be the forces that remove the
last Jenga piece, causing Putin’s shaky tower to collapse entirely.
And
as we watch this spectacle unfold, one cannot help but remember that even the
grandest of bears cannot dance forever. Sometimes, the music simply stops, and
the bear, left alone on stage, must bow out before the audience becomes too
restless.
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