No Mercy for Moscow: Why the West Must Finish What Ukraine Has Started

 

A defeated Russia would shatter the illusion of invincibility projected by authoritarian regimes, leaving China and others scrambling to rethink their global ambitions.

Russia’s once-iron grip on both its internal stability and its military aspirations seems to be slipping through Vladimir Putin’s fingers, much like sand in an hourglass. While the country’s wartime economy continues to function, its sustainability is under immense strain. Russia's economic and military challenges are not only visible but also exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the unrelenting sanctions from Western nations. The question that hangs in the air is this: how much longer can Putin's regime endure before it collapses under the weight of its failures? If the West plays its cards right, the final chapter of this geopolitical drama—a military denouement that cripples Russia and favors Ukraine—might be closer than anyone anticipates.

Russia’s economic challenges are profound, and its wartime economy is a house of cards, increasingly fragile with every passing month. The ruble has plummeted to all-time lows, and inflation is eroding the purchasing power of ordinary Russians. In 2024, nearly one-third of the country’s national budget has been allocated to military expenditures, marking the highest percentage since the Cold War era. Reports from Russian think tanks have highlighted that over 6% of the GDP is now consumed by defense spending, leaving little room for public welfare or infrastructure development. This overreach has led to acute labor shortages as able-bodied men are conscripted, arrested for draft evasion, or flee the country in droves. The exodus of talent and manpower has created gaps not just in the military but across key sectors, such as technology and healthcare.

The narrative of a self-sufficient Russia insulated from global economic repercussions is unraveling. The imposition of sanctions has choked the nation’s energy-dependent economy, with oil and gas revenues falling far below pre-war levels. Western-imposed price caps on Russian oil have forced Moscow to rely on a so-called “shadow fleet” to circumvent restrictions, but even this workaround is costly and unsustainable. The cracks are already visible: by mid-2024, Russian oil revenues had declined by 30%, even as crude oil prices globally remained elevated. These economic constraints, coupled with dwindling reserves, have pushed the country closer to the brink of economic implosion.

Militarily, Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine have turned into a quagmire. After over two years of sustained fighting, Ukraine has not only held its ground but also demonstrated an extraordinary ability to strike deep into Russian-held territory. In a series of bold counteroffensives, Ukraine has deployed advanced Western weaponry to cripple Russian supply chains and military installations. The significance of this cannot be overstated: Ukraine’s growing military capabilities are a direct result of Western support, highlighting the critical role that the U.S. and NATO allies play in this conflict. The success of Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil depots in Crimea and beyond showcases a turning point. No longer confined to defense, Ukraine is increasingly taking the fight to Russian soil.

The West must double down on this momentum. History shows that economic warfare coupled with robust military support can hasten the downfall of regimes overextended by their own ambitions. Take the Soviet Union in the 1980s, for example: a combination of an arms race spurred by U.S. President Ronald Reagan's policies and plummeting oil prices contributed significantly to its collapse. Today, similar pressures are bearing down on Putin’s Russia. The parallels are striking, and the West should not miss this historical moment to push harder.

The opportunity is ripe for a military denouement—one that delivers a decisive blow to Russia’s forces and ultimately cripples the Kremlin’s ability to sustain the war. Providing Ukraine with advanced long-range missile systems, additional drones, and air-defense technology would allow its military to disrupt Russian supply lines and logistics further. Modern warfare favors the prepared, and Ukraine’s forces are growing increasingly sophisticated, thanks to Western training and equipment. It is worth noting that high-tech systems like the HIMARS rocket launchers and Leopard tanks have already made a significant impact, shifting the balance of power in the battlefield.

The stakes are not just limited to Ukraine’s territorial integrity but extend to the broader geopolitical landscape. A weakened Russia would no longer have the capacity to meddle in the affairs of neighboring states or project power globally. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, for example, has already demonstrated Russia’s declining influence in the Middle East. Similarly, African nations that once relied on Russian military support are increasingly looking to other partners. The West can seize this moment to reinforce alliances, stabilize regions previously destabilized by Russian interference, and reassert the strength of democratic nations on the global stage.

However, achieving this requires more than military aid. The West must tighten the economic noose around Russia further. Closing loopholes in sanctions and enforcing stricter controls on energy exports would cripple Russia’s ability to fund its war machine. Moreover, a coordinated diplomatic effort to isolate Russia internationally would amplify its internal divisions. Reports from inside Russia suggest growing discontent among the elite, with oligarchs increasingly frustrated by the central bank's inability to stabilize the economy. While criticizing Putin directly remains a dangerous proposition, dissatisfaction within the corridors of power is a telling sign of a regime in distress.

Critics may argue that escalating pressure on Russia risks provoking a more desperate response from the Kremlin. Yet history favors those who act decisively. Hesitation now could allow Russia to regroup, rearm, and prolong the conflict indefinitely. As former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill famously said, “To each, there comes in their lifetime a special moment when they are figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered the chance to do a special thing, unique to their talents. What a tragedy if that moment finds them unprepared or unwilling.” For the West, this is such a moment.

The final act of this drama is approaching, and the West has the tools to shape its outcome. A defeated Russia would not only secure Ukraine’s future but also serve as a powerful deterrent to other authoritarian regimes considering similar acts of aggression. The collapse of Putin’s regime would be a victory not just for Ukraine but for the principles of sovereignty, democracy, and the rule of law.

Should the West fail to capitalize on this moment, they may well find themselves playing second fiddle in a global order reshaped by authoritarian ambitions. One can only imagine the irony of future generations looking back and saying, “They had Putin on the ropes but chose to wait for his next move instead.” Surely, the time for waiting is long past.