The Day Putin Uses Nukes is the Day His Regime Ends—And He Knows It

 

The biggest irony of Putin's nuclear rhetoric is that the very weapons he threatens to use are the ones that would lead to his swift downfall if he ever dared press the button. In plain English, Putin’s nuclear threats are the hollow rattle of a paper tiger—he is fully aware that if he dared to act, he would invite the total destruction of everything he’s built, including his own throne.

Putin’s nuclear rhetoric is like playing with fire, and the world is watching as he waves a matchstick while standing next to a barrel of gunpowder. Yet, as much as he threatens, the match never strikes. The reason behind this is simple: if Putin were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the response from NATO would be so swift and devastating that it would spell the immediate end of his regime. No one understands this better than Putin himself, which is why he has kept his threats limited to words and not actions.

To understand this, let’s first look at the history of nuclear deterrence. Since the end of World War II, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the world has been aware of the destructive power of nuclear weapons. This led to the Cold War doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), where both the United States and the Soviet Union recognized that any nuclear conflict between them would lead to total annihilation on both sides. This balance of terror has held the peace for over 70 years, as nuclear-armed states have avoided direct conflict, knowing that the costs would far outweigh any potential gains.

Putin is well aware of this history. He knows that launching a nuclear strike, no matter the scale, would invite a response that could obliterate his military, cripple his economy, and most importantly, destroy his hold on power. Putin’s regime thrives on control, and a nuclear exchange with NATO would mean the end of that control. According to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. If a NATO member were to be directly affected by radiation fallout or any other consequence of a nuclear strike on Ukraine, NATO would have no choice but to retaliate. The alliance’s response wouldn’t be just about military force; it would involve massive economic sanctions, cyber warfare, and potentially even regime change.

Consider the catastrophic consequences for Russia. NATO's combined military force dwarfs that of Russia. The United States alone maintains nearly 3,700 nuclear warheads, and when combined with France and the United Kingdom’s arsenals, NATO's nuclear capabilities are formidable. In conventional warfare, NATO’s military spending exceeds $1 trillion annually, compared to Russia’s much smaller budget of around $60 billion. The math doesn’t lie—Putin would be massively outgunned, and any Russian attempt to escalate would likely result in the obliteration of the Russian military infrastructure.

Moreover, the geopolitical fallout would be just as devastating. China, Russia’s closest ally, has repeatedly emphasized that it does not support the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict. In fact, Chinese President Xi Jinping has issued statements calling for peace and urging caution when it comes to nuclear threats. Putin’s use of nuclear weapons would likely alienate China, further isolating Russia on the world stage. India, another important partner, has also taken a neutral stance on the war, but has condemned the use of nuclear weapons. Should Putin cross the nuclear threshold, Russia would find itself without any major allies, completely isolated diplomatically.

Internally, the situation would be equally grim for Putin. Russia is not a true democracy; Putin has maintained his grip on power through a mix of propaganda, repression, and the illusion of invincibility. A nuclear strike, however, would shatter that illusion. Russian citizens, many of whom already oppose the war, would face unprecedented economic hardship as NATO and other countries impose even harsher sanctions. The ruble, which has already lost value since the start of the Ukraine invasion, would plummet further, leading to hyperinflation. The Russian economy, which is heavily dependent on energy exports, would collapse as European nations hasten their transition away from Russian oil and gas. In this environment of chaos, Putin’s ability to control his own people would be significantly weakened, potentially leading to civil unrest or even a coup.

It’s also worth noting that Putin’s nuclear threats are not a new tactic. In fact, they’ve been a recurring feature of his strategy throughout his tenure. He made similar threats during the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and has continued to use them periodically during the Ukraine conflict. These threats serve a purpose: they keep NATO and the West on edge, forcing them to consider the worst-case scenario. But as the old Russian proverb goes, "Fear has big eyes." The more Putin relies on these threats without following through, the more hollow they become. NATO leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, have repeatedly stated that they will not be intimidated by Putin’s nuclear bluster.

Indeed, some military analysts argue that Putin’s nuclear threats are a sign of desperation. The war in Ukraine has not gone as planned for Russia. Instead of a quick victory, Russian forces have faced fierce resistance from the Ukrainian military, backed by Western weapons and intelligence. Ukraine has even launched successful counteroffensives, reclaiming significant territory, including the strategically important city of Kherson. With his conventional military forces struggling and sanctions crippling the Russian economy, Putin is left with fewer options. His nuclear threats are a way of signaling to the West that Russia is still a power to be reckoned with, even as his actual military capabilities dwindle.

But here's the catch: Putin knows better than anyone that once he uses nuclear weapons, the game changes entirely. It would no longer be a regional conflict but a global one. NATO, with its overwhelming military superiority, would respond in kind, and Putin’s regime would collapse like a house of cards. His generals understand this too. There have been reports of internal dissent within the Russian military regarding the use of nuclear weapons. Many in Putin’s inner circle are wary of the potential consequences, not just for Russia, but for their own survival. If Putin were to give the order, there’s no guarantee it would even be followed. In the end, self-preservation may trump loyalty to the Kremlin.

Without putting it in so many words, Putin’s nuclear threats are just that—threats. He knows that crossing the nuclear line would lead to a response from NATO that his regime would not survive. His bluster is a calculated risk, designed to keep the West on edge without triggering the kind of retaliation that would end his rule. But as the saying goes, "He who plays with fire must be prepared to get burned." The world watches as Putin waves his match, but he’s smart enough to know that lighting it would bring about his own downfall. At the end of the day, Putin’s nuclear threats are nothing more than empty words, meant to distract from his failures on the battlefield. He’s like a child threatening to break his own toy—everyone knows he won’t do it, but he enjoys watching the world squirm.