Thursday, October 2, 2025

A Gamble on Peace: Why President Trump’s Gaza Plan Is the Boldest Bet Yet

 


Critics scoff at Trump’s “eternal peace” plan, but I call it audacious genius: he corners Hamas, restrains Israel, rallies Arabs, and reopens statehood. Flawed or not, no one else dares.

When I first read the White House’s 20-point “eternal peace” plan for Gaza, I admit I raised an eyebrow. After years of broken ceasefires, ruined proposals, and rising human toll, I wasn’t inclined to applaud. And yet, as I peeled back layer by layer, I came to believe this gambit deserves serious praise—for the very reason that it changes the terms of the conflict by shifting the positions of the three main actors: America, Israel, and perhaps, most surprisingly, Hamas.

To be clear: this plan is not perfect. It teeters on a knife’s edge of collapse. But what makes it compelling is that it does something rarely seen in the Gaza conflict: it reconfigures who holds leverage, who must act, and who is forced to take a stand.

President Trump’s announcement alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu on September 29 offered a bold architecture. Under the proposal, hostages would be released quickly, Hamas would disarm and receive amnesty or exile, a technocratic interim administration would take governance (excluding Hamas), Israel would withdraw in phases as security passed to an international force and vetted Palestinian police, and reconstruction could pave a path to eventual Palestinian statehood. Eight Muslim-majority nations have expressed support.

What’s revolutionary is not merely the plan’s contents, but how it reflects a U-turn in policy of both Washington and Jerusalem. Earlier in February of this year, Trump floated the idea of U.S. takeover of Gaza and even discussed relocating Palestinians, envisioning Gaza as a kind of Middle East “Riviera.” That vision raised alarm across the Arab world, with critics likening it to a form of ethnic cleansing. The Vatican, for example, publicly repudiated any plan to deport Palestinians from Gaza. But now, Trump has explicitly rejected annexation and occupation of Gaza—a dramatic reversal that reopens the possibility of two states.

Netanyahu, too, has pivoted. He once embraced perpetual war in Gaza, tethered politically to hard-right coalition partners who fantasized about settling Gaza. A peaceful outcome threatened his fragile coalition and his political survival. But now, he is positioning this plan as delivering Israel’s war aims—recovering hostages and removing Hamas power—while pledging not to annex Gaza. Surveys show nearly 75% of Israelis support the plan, a considerable base for Netanyahu to run on—even if his own popularity is weak.

The real wild card is Hamas. The group has remained publicly noncommittal, citing impossible demands—especially disarmament and its exclusion from future governance. According to sources, Hamas negotiators view the plan as biased toward Israel and unconscionable in its sequencing. But if Hamas were to adopt, even in principle, a commitment to relinquish arms and cede governance, it would amount to a radical recognition that it no longer claims to represent all Palestinians.

Each actor’s change of stance carries heavy risks. Hamas might reject the plan outright, condemning Gaza to continued carnage. Netanyahu or future governments may backslide, swayed by hawkish demands and political shifts. The technicalities of sequencing—who disarms first, who withdraws first—are labyrinthine. Reconstruction in Gaza is a Herculean task, with rubble, mines, destroyed infrastructure, and deep distrust. The Palestinian Authority (PA), slated eventually to retake Gaza, has a poor record on reform and could collapse under pressure. And worst of all, the public in both Israel and Palestine show little confidence in a two-state solution. According to polls, only 26% of Palestinians support abandoning the two-state model, yet more than 40% favor dissolving the PA altogether.

Yet in risk lies the plan’s appeal. By shifting American posture away from occupation, it keeps alive a political horizon where Gaza is not annexed indefinitely. By extracting Netanyahu from his “forever war” box, it gives Israel a more defensible exit strategy. And by forcing Hamas into a public choice, it deprives it of the perpetual posture of resistance without accountability.

History offers sobering lessons. Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas in 2024 under U.S., Egypt, and Qatari mediation collapsed after factions balked at disarmament and withdrawal conditions. In the Oslo years, interim agreements faltered because sequencing was vague and mutual trust minimal. Israel’s disengagement from Gaza in 2005 unraveled as security vacuums emerged and Hamas filled them. The 2007 split between Hamas and Fatah left Gaza isolated. In every prior plan, ambiguity killed momentum.

Yet this plan is audacious in its clarity and bold in its demands. It asks major actors to stake reputations—and perhaps political careers—on implementation. That’s a gamble rarely seen in recent Gaza diplomacy, where speaking is easy and acting impossible.

Critics will say the plan is fanciful, that expecting Hamas to disarm is dreaming, and that global powers will refuse to enforce oversight. They will warn that an interim technocracy under Trump-led “Board of Peace” smacks of external imposition. And they may be right. But what alternatives remain? Occupation invites endless insurgency and war. Rule by resurgent Hamas invites tyranny and misery. Anarchy invites collapse and fragmentation. The White House plan, though fragile, offers direction.

If this experiment fails, it will fail spectacularly. But even the act of making it, publicly, is worth praise. It forces truth—a reckoning by each side that peace must come with transformation. It compels external guarantors (Arab states, Turkey) to act as more than witnesses.

I believe this proposal is the boldest, most coherent pathway we’ve seen in years to leave the nightmare. Its success demands sustained pressure: Trump must hold Israel’s feet to the fire, Arab and Muslim states must lean on Hamas, and international institutions must supply credibility and muscle. But the alternative is worse: perpetual war, mass suffering, occupation, or a rebuilt Hamas with weapons.

So yes, I praise this plan—not because it’s perfect, but because it dares to transform the conversation. It dares a risk. And in a region scarred by endless indecision and death, daring is exactly what we need.

 

A Gamble on Peace: Why President Trump’s Gaza Plan Is the Boldest Bet Yet

  Critics scoff at Trump’s “eternal peace” plan, but I call it audacious genius: he corners Hamas, restrains Israel, rallies Arabs, and reop...