Recognition Without Power: How Britain and France’s Move Might Backfire in Gaza

 

Britain and France’s push to recognize Palestine may backfire, weakening their clout, emboldening extremists, and sabotaging the very peace they claim to champion.

Gaza is starving. A famine is creeping in, and a brutal war rages on while Hamas and Israel show no signs of stopping. Into this burning chaos, Britain and France have thrown gasoline disguised as peace. In a dramatic attempt to spotlight Palestinian suffering, end the bloodshed, and breathe life into the dying dream of two states, both countries have now pledged to recognize Palestine. But instead of pushing for peace, their move may boomerang—stripping them of leverage, emboldening radicals, and handing Hamas a political trophy without requiring a single hostage in return.

France made the first move on July 24, 2025, when President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September. Just five days later, Britain’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Britain would follow, but only if Israel halted its war, committed to a two-state deal, and promised not to annex land in Gaza or the West Bank. Spoiler alert: Israel isn’t biting. Which means Britain will likely follow France right off the cliff.

Critics say the move reeks of virtue-signaling. Macron’s clout at home is shrinking fast. Starmer’s party is tearing at the seams, with pro-Palestinian factions threatening to yank control from his hands. Still, both leaders appear serious. Their real test isn’t sincerity—it’s effectiveness. Can this recognition plan move the needle in the Middle East?

President Donald Trump says no. He calls Macron’s pledge weightless. He has a point. After all, 147 out of 193 UN members already recognize Palestine. What difference can two more voices make in a room that’s already full?

But Britain and France still matter—at least a little. They sit on the UN Security Council and are in the G7. Their shift could nudge other countries, like Australia and Canada, toward the same decision. Britain also has historical skin in the game. Back in 1917, the Balfour Declaration put Britain at the heart of Israel’s founding. So, even if their global influence is rusty, it’s not completely broken. A faded crown still casts a shadow.

The logic behind the move is that it might jolt Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu into realizing his country is losing its closest friends. Maybe, just maybe, he’ll fear becoming an international pariah and move toward peace. Since the U.S. isn’t applying enough pressure, some believe Europe must step in. But let’s be real—this plan has more holes than Gaza’s skyline.

Netanyahu and his crew are more likely to dig in than back down. Many in his circle believe that Europe will condemn Israel no matter what it does. Giving in today only opens the door for more demands tomorrow. So, they’ve adopted a new strategy, which. To some extent, makes a lot of sense: do what you want now and clean up the mess later. If Israel is already paying the small price of recognition, Netanyahu may just double down and take things further.

There’s another landmine buried here. Suppose, in the future, peace talks resume under a different Israeli leader. Both sides will need to compromise. But if Britain and France have already played their recognition card, they’ll have nothing left to bargain with. They’ve thrown away their ace before the game even started.

That’s a problem because making a two-state deal won’t be easy. Issues like territory and security are ticking time bombs. And then there’s Mahmoud Abbas. He only just condemned Hamas’s attacks from October 7, 2023—and even that was late and half-hearted. He hasn’t held elections and lacks the authority to speak for all Palestinians. So, when the time comes for hard decisions, who exactly will Britain and France be dealing with?

Starmer’s idea to use recognition as a threat—“Do this or we’ll do that”—is falling apart fast. He claims that recognizing Palestine now might pressure Israel to end the war. But he hasn’t placed any conditions on Hamas. No demand for a ceasefire. No demand to release hostages. Nothing. That gives Hamas a twisted incentive: stall the ceasefire, wait until after the UN vote in September, and then claim victory. Meanwhile, Israel gets cornered, and Starmer ends up with no leverage at all. He’s handing out rewards before the test is even taken.

Here’s the bitter truth: Britain and France have the most sway over Israel through Donald Trump. He’s the only one who can really push Netanyahu to the negotiating table or force a pause in the war. But by rushing to recognize Palestine, they’ve just burned that bridge too. Now they’ve lost the ear of the one man who still carries real weight in Tel Aviv.

What was meant to be a power play has turned into a political pratfall. Instead of moving closer to peace, Britain and France may have just pushed it further away. Their gesture, bold as it may seem, has stripped them of influence, strengthened Hamas’s hand, and backed Netanyahu into a corner he’s likely to fight his way out of, not surrender from. When you shout before thinking, you end up talking to yourself.