Thursday, October 24, 2024

The BRICS Summit’s Cash Catastrophe: How Putin’s De-Dollarization Strategy Backfired Spectacularly

 

Putin's "de-dollarization" is a hollow fantasy, exposed by the stark reality that even at his own anti-dollar summit, American dollars are the currency of survival. It’s like a vegan convention serving steak dinners—symbolic, but ultimately hypocritical.

Putin's effort to de-dollarize is turning into a bit of a "currency circus," where the supposed star of the show—financial independence—has to rely on a backup from the very currency it seeks to replace. When guests at the BRICS Summit in Kazan were advised to bring cash, specifically U.S. dollars and euros, the irony was glaring. Despite all the speeches about dethroning the dollar and establishing financial sovereignty, it seems the greenback is still the trusted ticket to rubles, especially since most Russian banks won't exchange other currencies. The summit, designed to highlight a new era of financial autonomy, essentially started by asking the attendees to pack "toxic currencies" in their suitcases.

This incident at Kazan reveals more than an embarrassing logistics issue—it exposes the illusion of financial power that Vladimir Putin wants to project. For the past few years, de-dollarization has been a key political buzzword for Putin, his way of promising liberation from Western hegemony. He has described the dollar as being "used as a weapon," calling it a mistake of Western powers, and pushed for alternatives like bilateral trade in local currencies (notably, China and Russia already conduct up to 95% of their trade in rubles and yuan). But for all these big words, cash flow at the summit told a different story—one where guests needed American dollars to navigate Russian financial systems, as local alternatives were riddled with limitations and bureaucratic obstacles. Mastercard and Visa don’t work within Russian borders since their suspension following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, leaving travelers to face difficulties with other systems such as UnionPay, which also come with restrictions.

The challenges don’t stop at cash. Putin has been tirelessly talking up Russia's plans for new payment systems that would bypass SWIFT, the global messaging network for cross-border payments that has been a lifeline for the dollar’s dominance. This SWIFT alternative, planned to be based in Belgium, was supposed to represent Russia's way of bypassing Western sanctions. Yet, despite all the rhetoric, even at the 2024 BRICS Summit, there was a conspicuous absence of concrete alternatives that could successfully undermine the dollar’s stronghold. BRICS members India and Brazil have been particularly cautious, leaning toward maintaining neutrality rather than turning the bloc into an openly anti-Western force, further complicating Putin’s aggressive de-dollarization agenda.

Consider the reality presented at Kazan: Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, speaking via video stream after missing the summit due to an injury, emphasized priorities like poverty, healthcare, and education instead of focusing on dismantling Western influence. Similarly, India, with its own strategic interests, shares Brazil's approach and shows little interest in aggressively pushing against the dollar. This divide within BRICS over strategy is a significant problem for Russia. The ambitious narrative of replacing the dollar is severely compromised when key players prefer a more cautious path, focusing on broader social and economic issues rather than spearheading a financial revolution against the West.

Indeed, while 35 new countries showed interest in the de-dollarization discussion at Kazan, even their participation comes with caveats. Many of these emerging economies are wary of putting their fate in a new financial system that may not be as reliable as the current one. Historically, the dollar has remained strong because it has something invaluable—trust. Emerging markets have seen the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia and realized that, despite all its faults, the dollar offers stability in global trade. Putin may have convinced nations like Iran, Ethiopia, and Egypt to join the summit, but converting interest into genuine abandonment of the dollar is an uphill struggle, especially given how entrenched the greenback is in the existing global system.

Another interesting contradiction at the summit came from Putin's own words. On one hand, he touted the increased use of local currencies for cross-border trade, presenting this as a way for BRICS nations to "mitigate geopolitical risks" and "separate economic development from politics" to the greatest extent possible. Yet, on the other hand, when guests had to arrive in Kazan armed with euros and dollars, it was a tacit admission that even in Russia, the financial systems necessary for genuine independence from Western financial mechanisms are far from mature. It’s one thing to talk about alternatives; it's another to have the infrastructure to support such a drastic shift.

The failure to offer a viable financial alternative at the summit was more than just a minor inconvenience. It underscored the immense challenges that face any serious effort to upend the dollar's dominance. This is especially true when internal disagreements plague the BRICS alliance. Russia and China might be aligned in their desire to challenge the dollar's hegemony, but the diverging interests of other BRICS members—particularly India and Brazil—make it clear that de-dollarization is not a collective priority. In fact, analysts suggest that Russia's grand plans for de-dollarization and financial integration are unlikely to make significant headway given the differing political and economic agendas within the group.

The paradox of needing dollars at an anti-dollar summit highlights the unrealistic nature of Russia's efforts. Russia, despite having built a complex narrative around challenging the Western-dominated financial order, continues to fall back on the very systems it claims to detest. While Putin talks about a multipolar world and freeing the BRICS economies from Western control, the reality is a lot more complicated. The trust and infrastructure that the dollar and Western financial systems have developed over decades cannot be replaced overnight, especially when internal conflicts within BRICS prevent the group from acting as a united front.

As for the West, they continue to uphold a global financial system with remarkable endurance. The very idea that American security interests include not just the defense of national territory but also the economic stability of allies is something that has kept the dollar strong. It reflects an understanding that prosperity and security are interconnected beyond national borders. The U.S. defense budget, used not just for America but for broader global stability, is what underpins the trust in its currency. The alternatives, as presented at the BRICS summit, are at best still in their infancy, lacking the international infrastructure or credibility that the dollar holds.

In the end, the Kazan summit left us with one clear takeaway: the supposed emperor of de-dollarization has no clothes—or at least not enough to make it through a cash-dependent summit without American dollars in his pocket. Putin's push against the dollar looks more like an underfunded stage production than a serious geopolitical move. As the BRICS countries awkwardly navigate their role on the world stage, one can’t help but wonder if the only thing de-dollarizing in Russia might be the credibility of its leader's grandiose proclamations. As the guests left Kazan, perhaps the most valuable takeaway they carried was not in their wallets, but in the realization that challenging the greenback isn't as easy as waving a fist at it.

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