What’s the Matter With Ghana?

The jewel of Africa has lost its shine!

“The discovery of oil off Ghana’s coast has raised questions about whether Ghana can escape the ‘resource curse’”, wrote BBC, a British newspaper in a classic 2010 article, “where discoveries of valuable commodities fuel conflict and corruption instead of funding development.”¹ Five years later, that simple assessment has turned into a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Sometimes one can spot an economic crisis from afar: abandoned building projects, relentless power cuts, high unemployment rate, you name it. Ghana has plenty of these issues. Its problems, however, grew more dramatic last June. In that month, a torrential rain flooded Accra, its capital. The rainstorm caused an explosion at a gas station in that city and claimed up to 200 lives.²

From stuff to fluff

It should be noted here that Ghana could ill afford this kind of disaster at this time. The West African country was an economic success stories just a few years ago.³ Not anymore. One big mistake the current government made – a mistake that made things to go wrong in the country – was to ratchet up spending on salaries and fuel subsidies. Unfortunately for the country, when commodity prices began to fall, the country started to implode under the weight of its economic problems.⁴ The country was forced by these problems to reach out to IMF for a bailout. Luckily for them, the organization agreed to lend the country almost $1 billion last February.⁵

In 2011, Ghana’s public debt was about 43 percent of the country’s GDP. By the end of this year, it could reach 70 percent of its GDP. When oil began flowing in the country in 2011, its annual growth topped 15 percent. But, given its current economic problems, it may dip to 3.5 percent. It will not be an exaggeration to say that Ghana will breach its budget-deficit target of 6.5 percent of GDP by the end of this year. And the cedi is currently on a free fall, with no sign of ending.⁶

So far this year Ghana’s currency, the cedi, has fallen over 25 percent of its value. One of the reasons for this is that investors have continued to shun its bonds. Broadly speaking, since 1992, the cedi has lost over 99 percent of its value against the dollar. And for the quarter of Ghanaians who live in poverty, inflation, which is now at 16.9 percent, has continued to make life a misery. The traders at Ghana’s marketplaces don’t see a quick end to the country’s current problems.⁷ In their views, business has completely dried up. To get the country back on track, President John Mahama will need to reign spending on those things that gobble up the government tax receipts, particularly on salaries and fuel subsidies. This will, however, be a difficult decision for him given that he seeks re-election in 2016: Ghana’s leaders have a history of splurging in election years.

From the economic standpoint, Ghana ignored its structural problems when the economy was rising. Now these problems have metastasized to a crisis level. Most of Ghana’s foreign earnings come from cocoa and gold, at least before its discovery of oil in commercial quantity. Yet, the government has not done much to improve the sector, abandoning it when prices fall or crops fail. Given that its successive governments failed to save during the boom years, it is not surprising that the country is addicted to IMF loans. As a matter of fact, Ghana has turned to IMF for help no fewer than 16 times since 1966.⁸ The country’s infrastructural shortages which are costing lives as well as dollars was thus exposed by a crippling power crisis and seasonal floods.

Corruption is also a growing concern in the country. The country recently drafted an oil bill for managing the oil sector. However, its Parliament had continued to criticize the bill for handing too much power to the country’s oil minister. Their concern may be reasonable, given that a similar issue is also a major problem in corruption-prone Nigeria. Meanwhile, Ghana’s oil production has continued to increase. But so also is the country’s scope for mismanaging the oil revenue.

References

¹Ghana Oil Begins Pumping for First Time. (2010, December 15). BBC, Retrieved July 28, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-11996983.

²Ghana: The Mighty Fallen. (2015, June 20). The Economist.  Retrieved July 29, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21654648-africas-former-jewel-struggles-regain-its-gleam-mighty-fallen.

³Minter, A. (2015, April 10). Ghana's Success Story Goes Dark. Bloomberg View. Retrieved July 30, 2015 from http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-08/ghana-s-success-story-goes-dark.

⁴Ghana: The Mighty Fallen, op. cit., p.50

⁵Ibid, p. 50

⁶Ibid

⁷Ibid

⁸Ibid

World Health Organization(WHO): Memories of the Ebola crisis, one year later

The Ebola crisis exposed the failings of WHO.

If the experience of the past year teaches us anything, it is that the World Health Organization(WHO), which used to be the north star of disease control and eradication, has become just one star in a constellation. The Ebola crisis, which has now killed over 8,000 people,¹ has exposed the failings of WHO - the world’s ailing health authority. The agency faces criticisms from different quarters because it did very little to stop Ebola from raging out of control in West Africa in 2014.

It is worth bearing in mind that WHO’s mission is to lead the world on health. But the agency has continued to disappoint the world when it comes to managing sudden disease outbreaks or epidemics such as HIV and Ebola. As a matter of fact, UNAIDS was set up two decades ago because of WHO’s inability to tackle the AIDs epidemic. Many experts argues that history repeated itself last year with the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, in which WHO’s response was not only slow but also disorganized and lacking in leadership. Thus the Ebola crisis brought to the limelight the deeper problems being faced by the agency. Most of these problems have a lot to do with funding, structure and staff.²

From a functional point of view, WHO  was founded in 1948 to help people attain and enjoy the highest standard of health possible.³ Hence WHO’s role as they relate to ensuring the highest possible level of health covered everything from helping individuals and countries in managing epidemics, communicable diseases, obesity, and antibiotic resistance, among others. To be able to achieve this feat, WHO  obviously needs adequate funding and, fortunately, its 194 member countries pay dues to support the agency. However, because these dues are calculated according to the member countries’ wealth and population (and the sums has not risen since the 1990s), they are not adequate to cover the cost of WHO’s activities and  programs each year.

So to generate more funds, WHO  solicits contributions from rich countries, nongovernmental organizations and private interests(such as pharmaceutical firms), philanthropic organizations (such as the Gates Foundation), and other multilateral bodies. Nearly 50 percent of WHO’s budget in the 1990s was made up of donations from these agencies and countries. But today, their donations constitute as much as 80 percent of WHO’s budget. The implication of this is evident: WHO is exposed to the ups and downs of the world economy which makes it hard for it to plan ahead. For instance, voluntary contributions to WHO  was hit hard by the financial  crisis of the last decade. For the  2010 -2011 fiscal year, WHO’s  budget was nearly $5 billion. This went down to less than $4 billion in the 2014-2015 fiscal years. Compare this value to U.S.’s Centers for Disease Control budget: in 2014 alone, the agency spent nearly $7 billion.⁴

This squeeze on WHO’s finances has forced it to slash its budget for responding to disease outbreaks by half, while spending more resources on chronic diseases and primary health care. And, because chronic diseases and poor healthcare kill more people each year, WHO’s strategy seemed reasonable. However, in the long run, a rapid response to a disease outbreak like Ebola by WHO  would have been cheaper than scrambling to catch up.

Because WHO relies so much on voluntary donations, it faces the challenge of deciding how to spend a big chunk of its budget as well as how to shift funds fast. This is because most of the donations it receives are for specific purposes. Rotary International had given money to the agency to fight polio;⁵ while the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation bankrolls malaria eradication.⁶ With fair justification, both are worthy causes. But because WHO’s role in each case has been to follow, and not to lead, its director-general has very little control over the budget. Hence, she was highly  limited in how she can address global health challenges.

The above forms of fund “earmarking” was common in the 1990s. That was the period when donors lost confidence in the WHO’s decision-making practice. On the positive side, the agency had made some improvements in its decision-making process: it now basis its budget on more realistic goals – a part of the reform process the agency initiated in 2010. In line with this, WHO claims that they will begin to  rejects funds from donors if it does not match their priorities.⁷ But  some doubt that the agency will have enough courage to say “no” to such donors.

On their own terms

Without putting it in so many words, another of WHO’s biggest problems has a lot to do with its administration. This is because the agency’s constitution made its six regional offices to be largely autonomous. This means that it is a host country’s local ministers of health who chose the agency’s directors, and not the director-general. This further means that these directors are beholden to the local ministers of health, and not to WHO’s director general. So naturally, the local politicians often treat some of WHO’s offices as tools for patronage. Thus WHO’s director-general is basically ham-stringed: s/he has very little control over the agency’s work in host countries (including in case of emergencies), its budget and human resources.⁸

WHO’s response to Ebola was hampered by these institutional weaknesses. Broadly speaking, because Africa’s health needs are greatest, the continent needs the strongest WHO  regional office.  Unfortunately, Africa has the weakest: WHO’s office in Africa is particularly politicized and staffed with often incompetent people. And any move by the director-general to put competent people at the agency’s regional offices often generate hostile responses from the politicians of the affected countries. For instance, when Dr. Margaret Chan(WHO’s  director-general) replaced top officials of the agency in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea in 2014 – the countries hardest hit by the virus – that change created lots  tension between the local staff and the headquarters.⁹

It is worth bearing in mind that, by providing solid evidence for WHO’s policies, its technical side is meant to arm the agency against unreasonable demands from politicians and donors. WHO, however, is no longer a world leader in health research as it once was. Broadly speaking, since WHO’s recommendations these days do not always match the best available evidence, it is considered an unexceptional organization. As a matter of fact, the University of Washington used the money donated by the Gates Foundation to establish  the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in 2007 after WHO’s statistics were found wanting.¹⁰

Fixing a broken system

First, WHO needs to practice what it preach: its founding mission, which is, to ensure the highest possible level of health, is not only vague but is also unattainable given its resources. It will need to change it to something more practical. The agency’s operational strategy of spending most of its cash on communicable diseases, improving its own management and promoting universal health coverage need to be enhanced as well. By dealing with these key issues, the agency allocate its scarce resources and budget effectively so as appropriately cover items such as promoting good health through the life-course – one of WHO’s program that cut across all areas of its work, including the health of women before, during and after pregnancy; the health of newborns, adolescents and older people, and so on.¹¹

Second, WHO need to fix its daft organizational structure. The flow of authority within the agency should be improved in a way that would make its regional offices, which are where it spends 20 percent of its budget, accountable to Dr. Margaret Chan(its global boss), and not to local governments. The implication of this is clear: with this new arrangement, Dr. Margaret Chan will have enough power to direct WHO’s operations as well as staff it with seasoned employees, not it current incompetent political place-men.

Third, the agency must increase its parlous finances. It is true: the member countries’ dues is inadequate to cover the organization’s running costs. As a result, it had had to accept voluntary contributions from charities, drug firms and rich countries. The fact remained that, in order to implement long-term plans as well as effectively deal with  unpredictable outbreaks of obscure diseases like Ebola, WHO needs a constant supply of funds. The solution is for the agency to find more ways to raise  money. With competent employees, this task  may not be too difficult to undertake.

The bottom line

The unhappy truth is  that WHO’s failure to lead the response  to the Ebola crisis reflects the broader struggle by the agency in recent years to live up to its mandate to lead the world on health. From an entirely practical standpoint, WHO’s management should rethink what the agency is for and how it is financed and run. They should stop doing the jobs of governments and, instead, focus on the things they cannot manage alone, such as combating global epidemics, helping poor countries set up health systems and disseminating the best medical research and policies. Dr Chan, as the boss of  WHO, should stop allowing politicians from using the agency’s regional offices as a parking-place for the relations of their allies and friends. The WHO’s boss should be empowered and emboldened so that she can direct her agency effectively. This means that she should be given more power to hire and fire employees when  necessary. More important, though, is this: if the world wants WHO to be capable of dealing with emergencies like Ebola, it should stop leaving the agency to scrabble for handouts. Instead, it should pay for it by increasing dues.

References

¹Firger J.(2015): Ebola Death Toll Rises in West Africa While Americans’ Interest Wanes. CBS News. Retrieved May 19, 2015 from http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-death-toll-rises-in-west-africa-while-us-interest-wanes/

²World Health Organization: Too Big To Ail. (2014, December 13). The Economist. Retrieved May 19, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/news/international/21636038-ebola-has-laid-bare-failings-worlds-health-authority-too-big-ail

³World Health Organization(n.d.): About WHO. Retrieved May 19, 2015 from http://www.who.int/about/mission/en/

⁴World Health Organization: Too Big To Ail, op. cit., p. 61

⁶Doughton S., Heim K.(2008): Gates Foundation Among Donors to Worldwide Malaria Eradication Plan. The Seattle Times. Retrieved June 11, 2015 from http://www.seattletimes.com/business/gates-foundation-among-donors-to-worldwide-malaria-eradication-plan/

⁷World Health Organization: Too Big To Ail, op. cit., p. 61

⁸Ibid

⁹Ibid

¹⁰Ibid

¹¹World Health Organization(2015): Promoting Health Through the Life-Course. Retrieved June 16, 2015 from http://www.who.int/life-course/en/

Facebook: A digital glutton?

The “Facebook effect” provides the prove that destroying the old to make way for the new is the essence of market economies.

 What is the most popular mass media of the 21^st century? Ask most young people this question and they are likely to say it is Facebook. They are unlikely to mention or pick familiar news media such as CNN, New York Times or Fox News. And, to some extent, they are correct: Facebook, though a mere social networking platform, has become a form of digital glutton that is ingesting everything, including personal data, news, communication, and public opinion, among others. It has even become a mobilization tool used by social movement activists: In 2011, nearly 9 out of 10 Egyptians and Tunisians who participated actively in the Arab Spring used Facebook to organize protests or spread awareness that led to the fall of some autocratic governments in the Middle East.¹

Yet for Facebook, the opportunities for expansion are boundless. Last month, it entered a lucrative partnership with nine news firms, including the National Geographic, New York Times, and the Guardian to develop Instant Articles – a   type of news service.² With this new partnership, Facebook will host the articles from these news media rather than just providing web links that send readers off to the news firms’ websites. This ensures that Facebook users can read stories from the affected publishers without leaving the social network. This arrangement obviously gives publishers new monetization opportunities: they will be able to sell advertising that normally appears next to their stories. Facebook allows them to either keep all the revenues or, alternatively, the publishers can authorize it to sell ad space and then give them a 30 percent cut.³

To those that have shall be given

This new partnership is obviously a strategic success for Facebook and it definitely highlights its growing clout in the news business. Many newspapers and magazines now get a significant number of their readers from Facebook. In addition, a newspaper or magazine can dramatically increase its website traffic if it has a Facebook page. For instance, the New York Times, which has Facebook page, gets as much as 15 percent of its traffic from Facebook.⁴ And some news sites like Buzzfeed gets as much as 37 percent of their traffic from social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter.⁵ The Facebook’s instant articles news service is obviously a success story for the affected news sites, most of whom have already cultivated legions of Facebook fans. Through the partnership, Facebook can keep users from straying as well as serve up more ads, while news firms can reach new audiences.

Just like in every partnership, this alliance is not without its problems. As the “Goliath” of the social networking industry, Facebook has more than 1.3 billion users, a value that is worth about 9 percent of all online advertising globally. Hence this new partnership may give Facebook more power because its users may begin to think that they can get everything they need in one stop. If this happens, the websites of the affected newspapers will become undermined as readers’ destination. In the past, firms like Zynga have been bruised after they hitched their business to Facebook.⁶

This challenge of giving social networking sites like Facebook too much power has prompted some news firms to take more analytical approach to their online business arrangements. Many of the news firms now try to figure out where their readers come from and they often hire teams of data crunchers and traffic analysis firms like ChartBeat to do the job for them. This approach, however, carries some risks too: these news firms seldom pay enough attention to the time people spend engaging on their websites; instead they spend too much time focusing on the number of visitors driven through social media.⁷

It is worth bearing in mind that there is a high possibility that more firms will soon follow in Facebook’s wake. As a matter of fact, many social networking sites now compete to host premium contents from news firms like CNN, BBC News, ABC News and Yahoo News. A good example is the Snapchat, a messaging service. Since the beginning of this year it started offering articles from a select group of news firms to its users – a strategy that can attract more visitors to its website. The bottom line here is that, eventually, competition will force most social networking sites, including Facebook, to pay publishers to host contents.⁸ When this happens, news firms will become less vulnerable to the whims of the algorithms being used by any social networking site. But, until then, news firms and publishers continue to live with the challenges posed by social networks that are almost the modern day newspapers.

For the news firms, the message is clear: Since they can curate content, engage users and sell their attention to advertisers, social networking sites like Facebook can cool readers’ enthusiasm for the traditional news media.

References

¹Huang C. (2011): Facebook and Twitter Key to Arab Spring Uprisings: Report. The National. Retrieved June 2, 2015 fromhttp://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/facebook-and-twitter-key-to-arab-spring-uprisings-report

²Johnson C. (2015): What Facebook’s News Service Means for Mainstream News Outlets. Deserete News National. Retrieved June 2, 2015 from http://national.deseretnews.com/article/4466/what-facebooks-news-service-means-for-mainstream-news-outlets.html

³News Companies and Facebook (2015, May 16). The Economist. Retrieved June 2, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/news/business/21651264-facebook-and-several-news-firms-have-entered-uneasy-partnership-friends-benefits

 

 

⁴Ibid

 

⁵Lafrance A. (2012): Coming in the Side Door: The Value of Homepages is Shifting From Traffic Driver to Brand. NiemanLab. Retrieved June 2, 2015 from http://www.niemanlab.org/2012/08/coming-in-the-side-door-the-value-of-homepages-is-shifting-from-traffic-driver-to-brand/

 

⁶News Companies and Facebook, op. cit., p.58

 

⁷Ibid

 

⁸Ibid

 

 

 

Nigeria’s Buhari: The test for a new monarch

General Muhammadu Buhari will be a terrific boost to democrats in Nigeria and across the African continent. But, at the home front, he may be hamstrung from the start by an economy that relies massively on oil revenue.

Since March 31, 2015, after Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan conceded defeat in a hard-fought presidential election – the most free and fair election ever to take place in Nigeria – I have been reading and watching media reports about the election. Though the conversations have been as diverse as the media houses themselves, there’s been three notable areas of concurrence: First, Buhari won the presidential election due to the incumbent government’s dishonesty and failure to end Boko Haram Islamist insurgency in the north-east Nigeria – an insurgency that has cost at least 15,000 lives. Second, Nigerians put enormous faith in Buhari due to his reputation for honesty, his fierce denunciation of corruption and his frugal lifestyle – a lifestyle that appeal to the poor who make up the majority of Nigerians. Third, many Nigerians think that as a Muslim, a northerner, and a former soldier, Buhari has a better chance of restoring the morale of Nigeria’s miserable army. This is important because it is only a reformed and re-energized Nigerian Army that can defeat Boko Haram.¹

Buhari seems to be keenly attuned to these problems and concerns, unlike President Jonathan whose past six years of governance has been a story of too little, too late. And, based on Buharis’s past records as the ex-military leader of Nigeria and on his campaign manifesto, he also seems to have the right priorities and the right experience to realize them. However, he will need more than his reputation for running a clean government and getting things done to achieve the colossal undertaking of solving Nigeria’s problems. Luckily for him, Nigeria has numerous skilled, experienced technocrats with proven track records and the energy and ambition to take on the challenges of the country. Unfortunately, most of these able technocrats lives abroad and Buhari had to find a way to lure them back to Nigeria.

Nigeria’ economy: a bull diminished

Archimedes once explained the power of levers in the physical world this way: “Give me a place to stand on, and I will move the Earth.”² The Nigerian political realm has an important lever of its own: the Presidency, the political fulcrum upon which Nigeria’s economy and future can be built. Yet the economy soon to be inherited by Mohammadu Buhari, the president elect, is in a very bad shape.

Although Nigeria is one of Africa’s richest countries, its wealth owes more to an accident of geology than to creativity and innovation: the country has huge oil and gas deposits (in addition to other solid minerals such as coal and limestone) and a land that is very suitable for agriculture. On the positive side, Nigeria can currently boast of having an attractive market of up to 170 million people³ and a fast-growing services sector.⁴ However, the country has continued to depend mainly on oil revenue, which is a big problem. Oil still accounts for two-thirds of Nigerian government revenue as well as 95 percent of its foreign earnings.⁵ Since last year, the decline in oil price has not only drained the government’s coffers but has also revealed the failure of the outgoing government to save during the boom years.

The unhappy truth is that the plunge in oil’s price has also sent Nigeria’s currency, the naira, into a free fall. Over the past seven months, the naira has fallen by as much as 18 percent against the dollar.⁶ For Nigerians, this is a grim news given that the country imports almost everything from cars, electronics, milk and other food items. In 2014, Godwin Emefiele, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, talked so much about interest-rate cuts. Instead of doing as he said, he hiked the rates to a record 13 percent in November of that year. His argument was that the high rates will defend the plunging currency.⁷ In spite of this, the country is facing high inflation rate which, as of last April, stood at 8.4 percent, according to official figures. Evidence from several analysts, including Merrill Lynch (an investment bank), indicates that rates could reach 15 percent before the end of the year. The IMF projects that Nigeria’s economy will expand by just 4.8 percent this year, even though it has grown by an average of 7 percent a year over the past decade.⁸

Since oil prices started to fall last year, jittery international investors have pulled out in their droves, wiping almost a third off the Lagos Stock Exchange’s main index. Many big Nigerian businessmen has lost billions of dollars as the stock exchange plunges. A good example is Aliko Dangote, whose conglomerates accounts for almost a quarter of Lagos exchange’s market capitalization.⁹ Just before the country’s Presidential election, the S & P, a bond rating agency, downgraded Nigeria’s credit rating to B+,  which is a value that is four levels beneath investment grade.

Upon what meat will this our “Caesar” feed?

During his election campaign, General Buhari pledged to crack down on corruption. In a country like Nigeria, this is definitely a mammoth ambition. But corruption is just one among many of Nigeria’s problems. Chronic underinvestment in infrastructure has left the country with clogged roads and epileptic power supply. One important concern is that Buhari’s government may have little wriggle room. First, to make up for the shortfall in oil revenue, he may have to borrow more money from IMF. Note that, at 12 percent of GDP, Nigeria’s public debt is actually low. However, the country equally has very low non-oil revenue to service this debt. As of last month, Nigeria is spending about 9 percent of its revenue to service the interest on the public debt alone.

Second, while the cost of fuel subsidy has fallen along with the price of oil thereby reducing government expenditure a little bit, Buhari may have to make more budget cuts to free some money for government projects. This is very important because road-building and other construction may be frozen if there is no money to pay the contractors.

Buhari should realize that he will, whether he likes it or not, find a way to pay for his campaign promise of eradicating Boko Haram , the Islamist insurgency that is plaguing north-east Nigeria. He may also need to extend a costly amnesty in the country’s Niger Delta area – an amnesty that will expire this year. This amnesty has helped to maintain a relative calm in the region – a region that is the source of much of Nigeria’s oil wealth. Finally, since Buhari wanted this job, he should know that his success will definitely be determined by his ability to reform Nigeria’s ossified, corrupt political system.

References

¹Nigeria’s Election – Three Cheers for Democracy. The Economist (2015, April). Retrieved April 30, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21647616-muhammadu-buhari-was-least-bad-presidential-candidate-nigeria-may-he-rise-his

²Ancient Greece (2012): Archimedes. Retrieved April 30, 2015 from http://www.ancientgreece.com/s/People/Archimedes/

³Ibukun Y. (2014): Nigeria’s Changing Diet Unveils a 170-Million-Strong Market. Bloomberg Business. Retrieved April 30, 2015 from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-06-30/one-nigerian-s-changing-diet-unveils-a-170-million-strong-market

⁴Nigeria – A Dynamic and Diversifying Economy. BNP Paribas (2012, December). Retrieved April 30, 2015 from http://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Views/DisplayPublication.aspx?type=document&IdPdf=21423

⁵Nigeria’s Economy – To the Victor the Toils. The Economist (2015, April). Retrieved April 30, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21647666-low-oil-price-has-revealed-grave-problems-africas-biggest-economy

⁶Ighomwenghiam K. (2015): Inter-Bank Market Shuts as Naira Falls to N205/$. Daily Independent. Retrieved May 2, 2015 from http://dailyindependentnig.com/2015/02/inter-bank-market-shut-naira-falls-n205/

⁷Financial Times (n.d.): Nigerian Central Bank Devalues Naira, Hikes Rates. Retrieved May 2, 2015 from http://www.ft.com/intl/fastft/241362/nigerian-central-bank-devalues-naira-hikes-rates

⁸Nigeria’s Economy – To the Victor the Toils. The Economist (2015, April), op. cit., para. 4.

⁹Nsehe M. (2014): Africa’s Richest Man Aliko Dangote Loses $7.8 Billion as Naira, Stock Exchange Plunge. Forbes. Retrieved May 3, 2015 from http://www.forbes.com/sites/mfonobongnsehe/2014/12/23/africas-richest-man-aliko-dangote-loses-7-8-billion-as-naira-stocks-plunge/

The Jackals of Politics: A True Story of Nigeria’s Election

Fellow Nigerians, choose this day whom you will vote for.

Nigeria made a laudable step forward in 1999 when it became a democracy. However, sometimes when you make a step forward you step in shit. The country will elect the next president on March 28, when it goes to the polls.¹ As has been the case in Nigeria since its independence in 1960, the new president will face numerous problems: from jihadist insurgency and rampant corruption. For Nigerians, these problems are so large that, if left unchecked, can rip the country apart.

Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy,² and hence this election will be significant for the continent. It is worth bearing in mind that this election would be the most important since the country’s civil war 40 years ago and, perhaps, since its restoration of civilian rule in 1999. But there is one problem: on the election day, Nigerians must pick between the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, who has not only proved an utter failure but also has blood in his hands (since he allowed Boko Haram to fester, leading to the death of thousands of Nigerians); and Muhammadu Buhari, a former military leader who also has blood in his hands. For a country in which the overlap between politics and corruption is an open secret, these candidates are the standard bearers of a broken political system – a political system that makes all Nigeria’s problems even more intractable. A quick glance at their report cards will validate this fact.

Let’s begin with President Jonathan, who belong to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – a political party that has governed Nigeria since 1999. Obviously, he was favored by his first name, Goodluck, given that he stumbled into the Presidency on the death of Yar’Adua – his predecessor – in 2010.³ He had been the country’s president since 2010 and has shown little willingness to tackle endemic corruption. He fired Lamido Sanusi - the country’s central bank governor – just because he reported that $20 billion had been stolen from the country’s coffers.⁴ Much of the northern part of the country has been in flames since 2010 due to the activities of Boko Haram – a jihadist group that claims to have established its caliphate in the region. Until last week, when Nigerian soldiers reclaimed some territories from Boko Haram,⁵ Jonathan has done nothing commendable to stop their insurgency. As of January this year, as much as 18,000 Nigerians has lost their lives from several brutal attacks by Boko Haram. In addition, more than 1.5 million people have either fled their homes or were displaced due to the group’s activities.⁶ Note that Boko Haram’s insurgency occurs mainly in northern Nigeria, which is far from President Jonathan’s southern political heartland. As such, it affects mainly those Nigerians who are the indigenes of northern Nigeria and who are more likely to vote for Buhari, the opposition party’s flag bearer.

President Jonathan do deserve some credit though. He did a good job in handling the ebola virus epidemics – an epidemics that killed more than 4,500 people in West Africa last year, mostly in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia.⁷ Nigerian economy is booming and growing faster than most African economies – an achievement that I am skeptical about giving him the credit. In any case, the current collapse of oil prices will eventually temper the boom. In spite of the high economic growth recorded by the country, poverty has increased under Jonathan’s rule, which implies that the prosperity has not been broadly shared. Life expectancy in Nigeria has also decreased, with more Nigerians dying eight years younger than their poorer neighbors such as Ghana.⁸

Choosing the lesser evil

I will not be surprised if Nigerian voters send President Jonathan packing. They have ample reasons to do that. The All Progressive Congress (APC), the opposition party, has a real chance of winning through the ballot box if Nigeria conducts a free and fair election. Mr. Buhari, their candidate, was an ex-general who came to power in a coup three decades ago. His rule was mercifully short, as well as nasty and brutish. He implemented a program called the War Against Indiscipline (WAI). Many Nigerians still remember WAI as a praiseworthy attempt by Buhari to fight the endemic graft which was preventing Nigeria’s development. Under the program, he ordered whip-wielding soldiers to “discipline” the notoriously unruly Nigerians, forcing them to form neat queues at bus stops. Civil servants were publicly humiliated by being forced to do “frog jumps” if they were late to work. He also implemented a destructive economic policy: He tried to fix prices by banning “unnecessary” imports instead of letting the currency depreciate in the face of a trade deficit. This led to the closure of many businesses and, of course, to the loss of many jobs.⁹ He expelled 700,000 migrants, believing that this would create jobs for Nigerians. His government banned political meetings and curbed free speech. He made an extensive use of secret tribunals, executed people for crimes that were not capital offenses and detained thousands of Nigerians.¹⁰ On the positive side, he was tough on security and, because he was a vanguard of discipline, he retains a rare reputation for honesty among Nigerian politicians, and Nigerians in general.

It is worth pondering one question: given his record, should Buhari be offered another chance? A lot of Nigerians believe he deserves a second chance, mainly because of his honesty and his record of fighting corruption. For instance, Buhari is a sandal-wearing ascetic in a country where both political ministers and religious pastors wear wristwatches and shoes worth many times their annual salaries. Besides, only a few Nigerians will question his commitment to democracy because he had willingly accepted defeat when he lost two presidential elections. In addition, when compared to President Jonathan, he would do a better job of running the country, particularly in defeating Boko Haram. One reason is that he will have greater legitimacy among villagers whose help he will need to isolate the insurgents, since he is a northerner and a Muslim.¹¹ He is also more likely to win the respect of the country’s demoralized army because he was a retired general.

Broadly speaking, I am relieved not to have a vote in this coming election. But as one of the concerned Nigerians in diaspora, I love my home country and feel for my fellow Nigerians. While I will not endorse neither Jonathan nor Buhari (none of them meets my expectations of a good leader), my opinion is that my fellow Nigerians at home should search their conscience and choose the lesser of the two evils.

References

¹BBC News (2015): Nigeria Elections – Buhari Rules Out Boko Haram Talks. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31645455

²Friedman U. (2014): How Nigeria Became Africa’s Largest Economy Overnight. The Atlantic. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/04/how-nigeria-became-africas-largest-economy-overnight/360288/

³Al Jazeera and Agencies (2010): Nigeria’s President Yar’ Adua Dies. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2010/05/20105523627997165.html

⁴Kay C., Bala-Gbogo E., & Mbachu D. (2014): Nigerian President Suspends Sanusi After Missing Oil Claims. Bloomberg Business. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-20/nigerian-central-bank-governor-sanusi-suspended-by-president

⁵BBC News (2015): African Allies Claim Gains Against Boko Haram. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31493150

⁶Nigeria’s Election: The Least Awful. (2015, January). The Economist. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21642168-former-dictator-better-choice-failed-president-least-awful

⁷BBC News (2014): Ebola Crisis: Nigeria Declared Free of Virus. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29685127

⁸Nigeria’s Election, op. cit., para. 5.

⁹BBC News (2003): “Honest” General Wanted to Rule Nigeria. Retrieved February 27, 2015 from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/2639165.stm

¹⁰Nigeria’s Election, op. cit., para. 7.

¹¹Ibid

Our sweet enemies: The Price for affluence and urbanization

Poor countries are now getting richer than before. But they are also paying the price of affluence and urbanization: the rise of chronic diseases.

As you read this, nearly 12.1 million people living in Sub-Saharan Africa are struggling with diabetes, with only 15 percent of them diagnosed. Project Hope, a nonprofit organization, estimated that by the year 2030, 23.9 million adults in Sub-Saharan Africa will have diabetes.¹ Broadly speaking chronic diseases, which includes diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases, now looms as the pre-eminent public health menace in poor countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, it is the number one cause of deaths of adults over the age of 30.²

There used to be a time when people in poor countries were too hungry and hardworking to be obese. During that time, only a few people could afford cigarettes and candies, and carbonated drinks such as Pepsi and Coca-Cola were luxuries. Also people in poor countries mostly died before the diseases of ripe middle age kicked in. The general belief then was that non-communicable diseases were a rich-world problem. A lot of things have changed since then. The standards of living in developing countries, particularly African countries, have improved significantly. However, the citizens of these countries are now paying stiff price for this improved living conditions. Today, developing countries bear more than 80 percent of the burden of chronic diseases. Available published evidence indicates that their share of these diseases will continue to grow. This will obviously add more burden to the one they already have – the vagaries of infectious diseases. In countries like India, for example, 40 percent of children under five are malnourished.³ Yet obesity is an acute health problem in that country.

Taking a bite out of progress.

Old and new diseases can be a lethal combination. For instance, those that suffer from diabetes are three times more likely to contract tuberculosis. One type of cancer that is common in equatorial Africa, namely, Burkitt’s lymphoma, is linked to malaria. HIV patients normally receive anti-retroviral treatments. However, this treatment increases their risk of developing diabetes and cancer.

According to the world Health Organization (WHO) deaths from non-communicable diseases will rise by 15 percent between 2010 and 2020. At least 20 percent of this jump value will come from Africa and Asia. In countries like China, the number of diabetics is expected to double by 2025. By the year 2030, chronic illnesses are likely to surpass maternal, child, and infectious diseases as the biggest killer in Sub-Saharan Africa.⁴ Most of these chronic illnesses stem from sedentary lifestyles, sugar, fat and smoke. But they also include diseases that are not caused by any of these factors, such as sickle cell – a blood disorder that kills many African children.

The affected regions in poor countries are woefully unprepared for this development. Their health-care systems, which usually receive funds and medicines from foreign donors, are designed for acute problems. So naturally, less than 3 percent of aid for health in these countries goes to chronic illnesses. And due to poverty, or even a lack of health insurance, many patients tend to delay treatments until it is too late. It is a good thing that many of the drugs donated to these countries are no longer covered by patents, which means that they are supposed to be cheap. However, they are still costly and scarce due to tariffs, poor distribution and high mark-ups. The health authorities are also stretched thin by high demand for their services. A child’s life can be saved for life by the right inoculation. In contrast, chronic diseases may require lifelong medicine and treatments. Like every educated person knows, a big cause of diabetes is unhealthy diet. But then, that makes it more complicated because eating right can be a battle involving brain chemistry and food industry practice. This explains why rich countries are also losing the battle for diabetes.

Not by meeting alone

So far the world’s response has been to have meetings, such as the United Nations summit held in New York in September of 2011. Prior to that, the only summit devoted to health was on HIV and was held in 2001. The summit was motivated by a sense of urgency about the scourge of AIDS.⁵ The outcome, however, was a positive one since it brought about a decade of dramatic progress in managing the AIDS crisis. Unfortunately, for some reasons, non-communicable diseases such as heart disease does not arouse the same passion or urgency. So it was not a surprise that while the countries that attended UN summit in 2011 passed a  political declaration on chronic diseases, they could not agree on targets for reducing them.

With no clear global lead, the affected countries has continued to struggle. In some places like in Kampala (Ugandan capital), most of the healthcare organizations spends a significant proportion of their funds on drugs and staff training. But since money is scarce in that area, health service delivery is inefficient. For instance, getting results from a procedure such as a biopsy can take up to one month if the patient lives outside Kampala.

It is worth bearing in mind that taking simple steps like offering inexpensive drugs, reducing salts in foods and raising tobacco tax can make a big difference here. Raising tobacco tax is particularly important, for two reasons. First, it is the best way for curbing cancer and the diseases of the heart and lungs. Second, it can be a good method for raising money for health care. Using tobacco tax can, however, be a challenge in poor countries. They provide the scarce jobs needed by the masses and revenues needed by the government. So in a country like Uganda, it may be hard to scare the industry away with high taxes.

Using some of the infrastructures and arrangements that are already in place for treating HIV conditions can also be a good strategies for many of these poor countries. For instance, in Western Kenya, the AMPATH program was originally designed to treat only HIV patients. But now that HIV infection is no longer a death sentence, the programs areas of coverage have been extended to cover those with such illnesses as cancer and diabetes.⁶ Its workers conducts a door-to-door screening program where the check the HIV status as well as the blood pressure and blood sugar  of their patients. A similar program initiated by  the United States, known as the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief(PEPFAR), also conduct regular health screening programs that has the goal of fighting HIV  by boosting broader health care.⁷

If the experience of the past ten years teaches us anything, it is that when it comes to fighting chronic diseases in poor countries, the most sustainable efforts will be those that provide healthcare and make money. Take Eli Lilly, the American pharmaceutical giant as a good example. The company provides free insulin to AMPATH in Kenya. The company regularly tests models for the treatment of chronic ailments like diabetes in countries such as Brazil, India and South Africa. But Eli Lilly, like every other corporate organization, also has profit motive. So while proving help for these poor countries now, Eli Lily knows that profits will follow later. Novo Nordisk, the world’s biggest insulin manufacturer, is another company that is making reasonable progress in fighting chronic diseases in poor countries. In China, the country controls almost 63 percent of insulin market as of September 2011.⁸ That represents a significant profit. Now it want to replicate the program in poor countries like Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Given the large size of the population of poor countries, chronic diseases is obviously a huge market – but with lots of pain for the poor masses. Unfortunately, this market is growing in alarming proportions.

References

¹Project Hope (2011): Chronic Disease in South Africa. Retrieved February 20, 2015 from http://www.projecthope.org/news-blogs/africa-blog/2011/chronic-disease-in-south.html

²Ouyang H. (2014): Africa’s Top Health Challenge: Cardiovascular Disease. The Atlantic. Retrieved February 20, 2015 from http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/10/africas-top-health-challenge-cardiovascular-disease/381699/

³Chronic Diseases in Developing Countries. (2011, September 24). The Economist. Retrieved February 20, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/node/21530099

⁴Ibid

⁵Ibid

⁶Strother R.M., et al (2013): AMPATH-Oncology: A Model for Comprehensive Cancer Care in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Cancer Policy, 1(3-4), e42-e48.

⁷Chronic Diseases in Developing Countries. (2011, September 24). The Economist. Retrieved February 20, 2015 from http://www.economist.com/node/21530099

⁸Ibid

What’s The Matter With Nigeria?

Nigeria has defeated Ebola. Its next target this year should be Boko Haram.

Sometimes I like to watch scary movies, just to experience the thrill of being terrified without suffering the consequences.  Nigeria’s Boko Haram, however, doesn’t give me that kind of vicarious thrill; instead it worries me a lot. As we welcome the New Year, I am convinced that it is time for Nigerian government to impose a well-coordinated and calibrated response to eradicate this terrorist group.

 In the past few months the violent Islamist terror group, which sees fear as the basic currency of expansion, have taken over swathes of north-east Nigeria. As of November of last year, it controls parts of Adamawa and Yobe states, and at least two dozen towns in Borno State.¹ Today only a few outsiders dare to visit Gwoza, a hill town of almost half a million people, because it is the capital of Boko Haram’s self-declared caliphate.²

As a way of establishing its writ through fear, the group routinely slaughters unbelievers as well as Muslims. Hence, it was no surprise that the death toll from their activities had continued to rise (see table 1). The residents of the verdant villages of Kubi and Watu in Adamawa state experiences great terror when a horde of Boko Haram fighters pounced on them in the early morning of September of 2014. On arrival, these barbaric fighters spent the day looting and killing their helpless victims.³ While they were dismembering bodies and leaving them for the vultures, the state police and other security agencies failed to come to the victim’s rescue.

Table 1 – Death Tolls from Nigeria’s Boko Haram

Year	Number of Deaths/Fatalities
2009	850
2010	340
2011	516
2012	1,988
2013	2,700
2014	5,000

                      Source: SAIS Africa, 2014

Sorrows, Tears and Blood

Nigerian government’s claim in October of 2014 that they have agreed to a ceasefire with the group must be viewed with great caution. So also should their assurance that Boko Haram have promised that more than 200 schoolgirls abducted earlier that year in the town of Chibok would be released. So far attacks by Boko Haram had continued and the girls have not been freed. Even if they have such a deal with the group, the outcome will not produce positive result because it would have entailed a swap of prisoners, including militant leaders, which can escalate the insurgency.

Boko Haram, which conducts complex military maneuvers reminiscent of those used by the formidable Chadian army, started out by assassinating provincial officials from the backs of motorbikes. Since then it has indeed become an able fighting force, looting military garrisons across the affected regions and accumulating tanks, antitank weapons, artillery and armored personnel carriers. There is a high possibility that it now have anti-aircraft guns, since its leaders claims to have downed a Nigerian fighter jet and, as a proof, has filmed the beheading of the pilot.⁵ Having grown into what may be termed a fairly effective commando force with almost 10,000 fighters, the group’s focus now is on acquiring and holding territories in north-east Nigeria as well as on acquiring more members, new weapons and tactics. And since economic stagnation, illiteracy and poverty fuels religious radicalism in the region, the group no longer need to use force or any form of coercion in their recruitment drive: young people in that north-east Nigeria have few options. So, joining Boko Haram, which feeds, indoctrinates and bloods them in raids, became an attractive option.

To finance itself, the group often plunder or kidnap victims for ransom. They also collects taxes at road blocks. For Boko Haram, ensuring compliance with their demands means using the weapon of terror to make their victims feel doomed if they fail to obey. One of the strategies they use in that regard is to produce slick propaganda videos that shows supposed sharia justice in action: They show videos where offenders have their hands cut off in front of sullen crowds or where they are lashed or stoned.

At the affected regions of northern Nigeria, the insurgency have driven almost a million people from their homes, with many of them staying at refugee camps in Yola, Adamawa’s capital. In many of the refugee camps it is a common thing to see hundreds of children, many of whom have seen their parents or siblings killed, waiting for food. It is really a sad story.

The “Un-Level” Field

In parts of the northeast Nigeria, agriculture has collapsed as fields remain barren. Even in areas that are still under government control, markets are noticeably empty. Many hospitals have run out of drugs and public schools have been closed for almost one year.

While the inhabitants of north-east Nigeria continue to suffer from the activities of Boko Haram, a different Nigeria exists a day’s drive away. In other words, southern Nigeria is booming while northern Nigeria is imploding. Recently, the World Bank lauded Nigeria for making it easier to set up firms,⁶ particularly in cities like Lagos (the country’s commercial capital on the coast) which has become a magnet for investors who are lured by the explosive growth in the Africa’s biggest economy.

Broadly speaking, the commercial metabolism of southern Nigeria is phenomenal. Of course natural resources still make up only 14 percent of Nigeria’s GDP and oil has remained its main export earner. But today, according to government’s statistics, factories located in the country are running at about 53 percent of capacity – a figure that indicate an increase over 46 percent recorded in 2013. Analysts at McKinsey, a consultancy, predicts that Nigeria could become one of the world’s 20 biggest economies if its GDP could grow by more than 7 percent a year for the next 15 years.⁷ It should be noted here that much of these improvements is due to Nigerian government reforms. For instance, improvements in the country’s electricity sector, which has started to reduce the rate of blackouts, has helped to puff up local economic growth figures. The government had also brought out new regulations which may give the country’s inefficient mortgage industry the shock it needed to spark the growth in mortgage for potential home-owners. To boost the fight against poverty, the government has helped launch a private sector development bank and is setting up a conditional cash –transfer system. The government reforms has also helped in bringing down inflation from more than 13 percent in 2010 to about 8.3 percent.

Going With the Flow

Yet politics and business in the north-east is dying while much of the economy in the south is coming to life. It is worth bearing in mind that Boko Haram has risen partly because Nigeria, as a nation, has been hollowed out. The unhappy truth is that while Nigerian institutions occupy impressive buildings, the state has generally failed to enforce the rule of law. Hence, the country’s judges and civil servants can be easily bought.⁸

The country’s government has racked up some successes though. Take the Ebola crises as an example: after a well-run operation to trace and isolate 19 people infected with the virus, Nigeria was declared free of Ebola on October 2014.⁹ Nevertheless, when it comes to security and public safety, Nigeria has failed woefully. Kidnappings for ransom has reached epidemic proportion in the country: Politicians, wealthy individuals, executives of multinational corporations, celebrities and clergymen are plucked off the street in broad daylight.¹⁰ Every year, hundreds of people are killed in land disputes. In the Niger Delta, piracy is common and thieves siphon off as much as 20 percent of the country’s oil output.¹¹.

The fact that such rampant criminality has continued in Nigeria validates why the country was named the most fraud-prone country in Africa by KPMG,  a global audit firm.¹² Generally speaking, the same issues that dominated public space 50 years ago are still the ones that confront the country today: the overlap between politics and organized crime in almost every parts of the country, in which gangsters aid politicians by intimidating opponents and, in return, elected officials share out funds plundered from the state, is an open secret. During the Biafran civil war in the late 1960s, corruption blossomed tremendously and money flowing into regional coffers went into private pockets. The generals that ruled the country after the civil war never lost their appetite for helping themselves with public funds. Naturally, the civilian political class who took over the reins of government when the generals allowed a return to democracy 15 years ago adopted the army’s habits. Thus the level of corruption in Nigeria is really scary, as what started as a nibbling at the system has metastasized into an all-out gobbling. It was thus not a surprise when Lamido Sanusi, the internationally-respected central bank governor was fired for accusing the state oil company (called NNPC) of failing to account for $50 billion in revenues.¹³ What happened to Lamido also validates the fact that the scales of justice in Nigeria are weighted down by graft.

Unfortunately, President Jonathan did not make things easy when he belittled the problem by stating that corruption is not the same thing as stealing. He seems to forget that hyper-corruption in Nigeria means not only a loss of state funds but also a corrosion of decision-making. No wonder the oil industry bill that would boost investment in oilfields and hence production has continued to be shunned by the country’s federal parliament for years. For the federal legislators, it is better to keep things as they are.  Oil output can stay stagnant. After all, they still do well from the handouts they receive from the local oil cartels.

The Northern Response

Inequality is also starkly regional in Nigeria, especially in the north where it coexists with illiteracy – a toxic combination. As a matter of fact, some of Nigeria’s northern states would rank bottom  globally in terms of development if they were independent countries. In some part of northern Nigeria, fewer than 5 percent of women can read or write. The number of children out of school in the region has also reached astronomical level and is comparable to nowhere else in the world. With three out of four residents in the north-east living below the poverty line, it won’t be a surprise that violence and religious fundamentalism has become a “collective neurosis” in the region, with Boko Haram being a reflection of the deeper crisis in the country. Simply put, the rise of Boko Haram, to a large extent, is fuelled by poverty, illiteracy, religious dogmatism, as well as the brutality and incompetence of the country’s law enforcement agents.

According to the available published evidence, extrajudicial killings by Nigeria’s security forces accounts for thousands of deaths in the north.¹⁴ So naturally, revenge for those killings is the main reasons Boko Haram attacks police stations and Army barracks. It should be noted here that abuse in Nigeria’s  Police detention centers is routine. Almost every police station in Nigeria, including the north-east region, have what is normally called “O/C Torture”, which means “Officer in Charge of Torture.” It is this officer(s) that handles interrogations at the affected stations. So after each police sweeps of suspected insurgents’ hideouts, dozens of bodies bearing marks of torture often turn up at the main morgue in Maiduguri. And in some cases, many of the prisoners appear to have been starved to death.

Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

Meanwhile, in the field, Nigerian army lacks both the morale and the equipment to give Boko Haram a good chase, even though the country is the seventh-biggest oil producer in OPEC. Thus Boko Haram is now free to ride around in large convoys almost unmolested from the air and on the ground, especially now that they have destroyed much of the country’s air fleet in a raid in 2013. Western countries declined the Nigeria generals’ request for new helicopters and other equipment, insisting that Nigerian army need to alter their tactics first. Specifically, they want the country’s military to learn counter-insurgency skills, respect human rights, and create proper supply lines. Just like the Western countries, the United States is not ready to offer Nigeria any form of training or arms unless its army start to respect human rights.¹⁵

It is really a big shame that the same Nigerian army that were not good at chasing insurgents are experts at extracting bribes. There are numerous accounts in which the troops sent to the north-east to fight Boko Haram run  checkpoints as shakedown spots.¹⁶ Bus drivers has continued to complain that they were forced to stop every 10 kilometers on the road between Maiduguri and Damaturu to pay tithes to the soldiers. Of course the politicians and the army generals cannot say that the troops are corrupt since the pot cannot call the kettle black. The soldiers are merely following the footprints of their generals and the country’s politicians, most of whom retire as millionaires. As a matter of fact, most Nigerians are not excited when the government announced that it has mapped out a budget supplement of $1 billion to fight Boko Haram. To the concerned Nigerians, this budget supplement is nothing more than a new trough for greedy officials: So little of the money reaches front lines that desertion is common. Last year, several troops were sentenced to death by firing squad for mutiny after they shot at their own officers out of frustration for lack of food and ammunition.

Meanwhile, government officials has continued to claim that the existence of Boko Haram doesn’t not mean that Nigeria is facing an existential crisis. In their view, the only problem Nigeria has with respect to Boko Haram is how to communicate its successes abroad. According to Nigeria’ finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the international media tend to publicize only bad news about Nigeria while shelving the good news about the country. Nonsense: It is not true to say that the international media carries only bad news about Nigeria. It’s just that Nigeria don’t usually have the kind of news that generates sexy headlines.

Obviously, President Jonathan is no longer able to effect wholesale change in a broken state even though he has never been short of speeches and initiatives. So as Nigeria approaches the next national election in February 2015, it is important that the citizens votes for the right candidates so as to prevent the country from tipping over into chaos.

References

¹ Nigeria, a Nation Divided. (2014, October 25). The Economist, p. 49.

²Mahmood O. (2014): Nigeria – Boko Haram’s Gwoza Caliphate Demonstrates Group’s Increasing Power. All Africa. Retrieved January 2, 2015 from http://allafrica.com/stories/201409110475.html

³ Mohammed I. (2014): Boko Haram Kills Scores, Burns 540 Houses in Michika. Sahara Reporters. Retrieved January 2, 2015 from http://saharareporters.com/2014/09/30/boko-haram-kills-scores-burn-540-houses-michika

⁴ SAIS Africa (2014): Social Violence in Nigeria. Retrieved January 3, 2015 from http://www.connectsaisafrica.org/research/african-studies-publications/social-violence-nigeria/

⁵ Alamba S., Faul M. (2014): Boko Haram Video Shows Beheading of Nigeria Pilot. Yahoo News! Retrieved January 3, 2015 from http://news.yahoo.com/boko-haram-video-shows-beheading-nigeria-pilot-121607194.html

⁶ The Economist, op. cit, p. 49

⁷ The Economist, op. cit, p. 50

⁸ Nigeria – Countries at the Crossroads (2012). Freedom House, Retrieved January 3, 2015 from https://www.freedomhouse.org/report/countries-crossroads/2012/nigeria#.VKhXzSvF888

⁹ Ebola Crisis – Nigeria Declared Free of Virus (2014). BBC News Africa, Retrieved January 3, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29685127

¹⁰ Hyundai Paid Nigeria Kidnap Ransom, Police Say (2013). BBC News Africa, Retrieved January 3, 2015 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-20916441

¹¹ The Economist, op. cit, p. 50

¹² Ihediora K. (2015): Nigeria – Moving Forward in A Circle. Punch. Retrieved January 3, 2015 from http://www.punchng.com/opinion/nigeria-moving-forward-in-a-circle/

¹³ Nossiter A. (2014): Governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank Is Fired After Warning of Missing Oil Revenue. The New York Times. Retrieved January 3, 2015 from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/21/world/africa/governor-of-nigerias-central-bank-is-fired-after-warning-of-missing-oil-revenue.html?_r=0

¹⁴ The Economist, op. cit, p. 50

¹⁵ Ibid

16 Ibid