OPEC’s rules are a joke in Abu Dhabi; the Emiratis are drilling holes not just in oilfields, but in the cartel’s credibility. Simply put, while others stick to quotas, the UAE’s Murban flows like a rogue river—unrestrained, unrepentant, and undermining OPEC from the inside with a golden smile.
The oil is thicker than cartel blood—and the UAE is
pouring it on. I don’t need a crystal ball to see what’s happening—just a
tanker tracker and a calculator. The United Arab Emirates isn’t just bendingOPEC rules; it’s snapping them in half like dry twigs under the desert sun.
While the cartel insists on quotas and unity, the Emiratis are drilling,
shipping, and cashing out like tomorrow’s energy transition already happened.
OPEC may talk the talk, but the UAE is walking off with the prize barrels.
Let’s call it what it is: OPEC is a cartel in crisis, and
the UAE is the saboteur within. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to pump 411,000 more
barrels a day starting in July. That was the third increase in as many months,
supposedly to meet “healthy” demand. But who’s buying that story? Demand
forecasts have been falling faster than a dry oil well, thanks to President
Trump’s relentless trade pressure and a world still finding its economic
footing. Meanwhile, non-OPEC producers are outpacing the cartel. There’s no shortage.
There's a surplus—and the UAE is banking on it.
OPEC has always been a delicate dance of discipline,
where each member promises not to pump more than agreed. But while others toe
the line—or at least pretend to—the UAE has turned the quota system into a
paper napkin. Officially, they report 2.9 million barrels per day, right on
target. But tanker data alone shows 2.8 million b/d in exports—and that’s not
counting domestic refining or storage. Do the math. They’re clearly
overshooting. Some analysts estimate real output between 3.3 to 3.4 million
b/d. The gap is so wide you could drive a Murban-loaded supertanker through it.
And the worst part? Everyone knows it. Consultants
whisper it behind closed doors. Oil firms track it in real time. Even OPEC’s
secondary sources, now all commercial firms, massage the data to avoid ruffling
feathers. The UAE stopped publishing detailed output data years ago, making
verification almost impossible. It’s like grading your own test and giving
yourself an A+, then demanding a gold star for honesty.
So why does Saudi Arabia—the cartel’s enforcer—stay
quiet? Pride? Strategy? Fear? More like all three. Abu Dhabi has the most idle
capacity in OPEC+, and when oil demand rebounded after COVID, the UAE
threatened to leave the cartel over quota fights. Not once, but twice. That
wasn’t a bluff—it was a loaded bazooka aimed straight at OPEC’s backbone.
Riyadh blinked. They had no choice. A UAE exit would cripple the group’s
credibility.
And now, with oil prices teetering and the cartel’s unity
cracking, the UAE is turning up the heat. Unlike Saudi Arabia, which needs oil
at $90 per barrel to fund its mega-projects like NEOM and its Public Investment
Fund fantasyland, the UAE can break even at $50. That’s because the Emiratis
have played the long game. They’re already closing in on their 5 million b/d
production capacity goal, up from 3.6 million in 2021. And they’ve invested $62
billion to make it happen. Their reward? A laughable 300,000 b/d quota
increase, phased in over 18 months. OPEC postponed a full revision of quotas
until 2027, but the UAE isn’t waiting for permission—they’re printing their
own.
This is cartel cannibalism. And if you think it’s going
to end with a polite group hug at the next OPEC summit, think again. Saudi
Arabia has tried to respond with collective output hikes, hoping to punish
overproducers by lowering prices. It’s the oil version of group detention. But
the UAE isn’t sweating. They can outlast the heat. Lower prices barely dent
their budget. Meanwhile, they snatch up Asia’s market share like a kid raiding
a candy store while the chaperone argues about the rules.
Let me spell it out: The UAE is flouting OPEC’s rules on
a grand scale. And not quietly, either. They’re flooding the market under the
radar, manipulating production data, and daring the cartel to do something. And
everyone else? Playing along in silence because the truth is too explosive. The
consultants have clients to keep. The journalists don’t want to be blacklisted.
The producers are hedging their bets. Even Saudi Arabia—the supposed sheriff—is
looking the other way, hoping the outlaw doesn’t burn the whole town down.
What we’re seeing isn’t just rule-breaking. It’s a
hostile takeover from within. The UAE has all but declared independence from
OPEC’s discipline while staying in the club just long enough to reap the perks.
They get the market intelligence, the camaraderie, the media shield—and none of
the constraints. It’s like sitting at a poker table, peeking at everyone’s
cards, and then dealing yourself aces under the table.
And it’s working.
Even now, the UAE is prepping for a post-OPEC future.
Their infrastructure, investment strategy, and production roadmap suggest
they’re not just outgrowing the cartel—they’re preparing to bury it. When OPEC
revisits quotas in 2027, Abu Dhabi might not even show up to the meeting. Why
bother? By then, they’ll already be calling their own shots, possibly leading a
rival coalition—or worse, cutting bilateral deals directly with energy-hungry
nations like India and China.
OPEC has weathered crises before—wars, recessions, even
America’s shale revolution. But this time, the threat isn’t external. It’s a
member acting like a rogue state. And if that member is allowed to keep
rewriting the rules, what’s left of the cartel? A name? A logo? A shared
WhatsApp group?
This is how empires crumble: not with an invasion, but
with betrayal from within.
So, is the UAE about to break OPEC?
They already have.
And the rest of the cartel? They’re just hanging on,
praying the Emiratis don’t pull the plug completely. Meanwhile, the world
watches as the once-mighty cartel becomes a dusty mirage in the rearview mirror
of a fleet of Emirati tankers racing toward a future where rules are made in
Abu Dhabi, not Vienna.
But hey, at least they’ll have enough oil left to lube
the hinges of OPEC’s empty conference room when the last member turns off the
lights.